Sharper

1. Sports Betting: It's a Market, Not a Miracle

Sports betting is a market.

Market Dynamics. Sports betting operates as a market, influenced by supply and demand. Public perception, expert opinions, and betting activity all contribute to line movements. Understanding this market dynamic is crucial for identifying value and exploiting inefficiencies.

No Guaranteed Systems. There are no foolproof systems or guaranteed winning picks. Any publicized system will eventually fail as its edge is absorbed into the prices. The market adapts, and what was once profitable becomes unsustainable.

Math and Calculation. Sharp sports betting requires math and calculation. Don't expect to win long-term without doing some calculating. This involves understanding probabilities, break-even win rates, and expected value.

2. Sharps vs. Squares: Mindset Matters Most

The difference between a sharp and a square is that the sharp might be non-randomly right.

Beyond Beginner vs. Expert. The traditional "beginner, intermediate, expert" model doesn't apply in sports betting. Instead, bettors are categorized as either "squares" (recreational, uninformed) or "sharps" (knowledgeable, disciplined).

Squares' Delusion. Squares often believe the odds are wrong without doing any calculations. They rely on hunches, biases, and gut feelings, leading to poor betting decisions.

Sharps' Approach. Sharps, on the other hand, approach betting with a calculated mindset. They understand the fundamentals, quantify their opinions, and seek out edges based on data and analysis. The key difference lies in the approach, not necessarily years of experience.

3. Handicapping: Quantify, Don't Just Qualify

Handicapping is creating an equalizing number.

Beyond Gut Feelings. Handicapping isn't about vague feelings or subjective opinions. It's about assigning a numerical value to a team's ability, creating a point spread that reflects the expected scoring difference.

Stories vs. Numbers. Squares often rely on stories and narratives to justify their bets. Sharps, however, focus on quantifying all relevant factors and incorporating them into an overall rating structure.

Simple Handicapping. A basic handicapping method involves estimating the average score if two teams played thousands of times. This provides a baseline for comparing your estimate to the market's line.

4. Price Over Juice: The Sharp Bettor's Mantra

Sharps only think about price.

Price vs. Juice. Price refers to the odds offered on a particular bet, while juice is the bookmaker's commission. Squares often focus on the juice, but sharps prioritize getting the best possible price, regardless of the juice.

Juice Irrelevance. The juice is the bookie's business. A book's usefulness depends only on the chance you can get the best line on a game there, the chance you'll get paid if you win, the chance you can win and not get booted, the ease with which you can get bets down, and so on, but not on their hold.

Line Shopping. Sharps understand that finding the best price is crucial for maximizing profits. They shop around at different sportsbooks to find the most favorable odds on their chosen bets.

5. The Line: A Moving Target, Not a Fixed Point

Lines are only initially made by a linemaker. They are thereafter moved by the bettors themselves.

Market Influence. Lines are not static; they are constantly moving in response to betting activity. The amount of money wagered on each side, as well as the source of the bets (sharps vs. squares), influences line movement.

Trap Lines. The idea of "trap lines" is a myth. Bookmakers rarely try to bait players. Instead, they move lines to manage risk and maximize profits, reflecting the market's collective opinion.

Sharp Books. Sharp books, like Pinnacle, have more accurate lines because they attract knowledgeable bettors. These books don't limit winning players, allowing the market to efficiently set the odds.

6. Edge: The Holy Grail of Sports Betting

Using the difference between our estimate and the market’s estimate, to the extent that we’re right, is the source of our profit in sharp sports handicapping.

Defining Edge. Edge is the advantage a bettor has over the market. It's the difference between your estimated probability of an outcome and the implied probability of the odds.

Sources of Edge. Edge can come from handicapping (having a more accurate estimate of a team's ability) or from betting (finding off-market numbers). The steadiest source of edge is the edge that comes from off-market numbers.

Edge Estimation. Accurately estimating your edge is crucial for proper bet sizing. This involves understanding break-even win rates, push frequencies, and the impact of line movements.

7. Bankroll Management: The Unsung Hero

BRM (bankroll management) plans are made when cool and burst when hot.

Emotional Control. Bankroll management (BRM) is essential for long-term success. However, even the best BRM plans can fail if emotions take over.

Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula for determining the optimal bet size based on your estimated edge. However, it requires accurate edge estimation, which is often difficult to achieve.

Fractional Kelly. Most sharps use a fractional Kelly, betting a fraction of the Kelly-recommended amount. This reduces the risk of ruin and allows for greater variance.

8. Beating the Closing Line: A Misunderstood Metric

To beat the closing line is to have bet a game at a line better than it later closed.

Definition. Beating the closing line (BTCL) means getting a better line than the final line before the game starts. It's often seen as a sign of a sharp bettor.

Correlation, Not Causation. BTCL correlates with winning, but it doesn't necessarily cause it. A winning player's bets can move the line, making it appear as if they are consistently beating the close.

Market Inefficiency. The closing line isn't always the most accurate. Square money and emotional betting can distort the market, creating opportunities to fade the late line movements.

9. Injury Impacts: A Critical Piece of the Puzzle

A team is made up of players. When the players change, the team changes.

Ignoring Injuries is Fatal. Ignoring injury impacts is a major mistake. A team's ability changes when key players are injured or replaced.

Quantifying the Impact. Estimating the impact of injuries requires careful analysis. This involves considering the player's importance to the team, the quality of the replacement, and the overall team dynamics.

Madden Ratings. Madden NFL player ratings can be a useful starting point for assessing injury impacts. By subtracting the substitute player's rating from the starter's rating, you can get a rough estimate of the point swing.

10. The Grind: Work Ethic and Constant Learning

You have to actually be good to succeed, and no resume, no expensive suit, no handsome face, no right race or gender or background or anything else is going to help you.

No Shortcuts. There are no shortcuts to success in sports betting. It requires hard work, dedication, and a willingness to learn and adapt.

Continuous Improvement. The market is constantly evolving, so you must continuously improve your skills and knowledge. This involves staying up-to-date on team news, analyzing data, and refining your handicapping methods.

Self-Appraisal. Develop a harsh self-appraising nature, an ability to distinguish between fair criticism and unfair, be at peace about the inevitability of making mistakes (and being punished for them), have a thick skin in the face of boisterous contrary opinions, or get out of the game now.

Last updated: April 10, 2025