A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance

1. Mental Models: Useful Tools, Potential Traps

Mental models are frameworks that shape your thinking, based on your background, values, goals, biases, education, and life experiences.

Frameworks for Thinking. Mental models are cognitive frameworks derived from our experiences, values, and biases, enabling rapid information processing and decision-making. They act as mental shortcuts, automating responses to familiar situations, much like software systems in a computer. This automation is beneficial in many daily scenarios, reducing the cognitive load required for each decision.

The Downside of Automation. However, these models can become problematic when they lead to rigid thinking, preventing us from adapting to new information or considering alternative perspectives. The framework created in your mind may be wrong, or it may be correct in certain situations, but not in every single situation. Over-reliance on mental models can hinder logical reasoning and rational choice, especially in novel situations where intuition may be misleading.

Subjective Reality. Mental models are based on individual imagination and subjective experiences, which can be wildly inaccurate or at odds with reality. To exercise good judgment and make wise decisions, you must remove these traps. Recognizing and adjusting our thinking to more helpful and logical approaches is key to improving decision-making and problem-solving abilities.

2. Overcoming Prediction Traps: Confidence, Prudence, and Recallability

The best mental models are the ideas with the most utility.

Overconfidence Trap. Overconfidence leads to overestimating one's abilities and probabilities of success, blinding individuals to potential risks and limitations. This miscalibration of subjective probabilities can result in recklessness and disappointment. Students with low self-esteem tend to score better on tests because they apply themselves, think about questions more carefully, and study harder, which drives their scores up.

Prudence Trap. Conversely, excessive prudence involves underestimating potential gains and overemphasizing potential losses, causing individuals to miss opportunities. Being overly prudent is never good. While it is always wise to investigate your options and be cautious, don’t rely too much on your gut sense of probability.

Recallability Trap. The recallability trap occurs when decisions are unduly influenced by the most dramatic, recent, or easily recalled information, rather than the most relevant. The idea that is the most dramatic stands out more in your mind. The event that happened recently is more relevant than events from farther back in time. The information that is simplest and thus easiest to recall is more readily available to retrieve from your memory than more complex information.

3. Breaking Free from Narrow Thinking and Cognitive Biases

Narrow thinking will get you into hot water every time.

The Pitfalls of Narrow Thinking. Narrow thinking limits one's ability to see possibilities and nuances, leading to flawed judgments and repeated mistakes. This is often fueled by confirmation bias, disconfirmation bias, and the ostrich effect, where individuals selectively seek information that confirms their beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence.

Beyond Black and White. To break free from narrow thinking, one must challenge the tendency to sort things into neat categories and dismiss information that doesn't fit. Consider that you may be wrong and you should investigate other options to find what speaks truth to you. Consider that there is more to life than two categories and some things fall into a gray area.

Cultivating a Broader Perspective. It is essential to avoid looking for the correct answer and instead find alternative answers. If you are wrestling between two diametrically opposed ideas, you are probably employing narrow thinking. There is probably a solution that blends elements from both opposing ideas, if you would look at life through a wider lens. Expanding one's knowledge base, entertaining diverse opinions, and embracing creativity are crucial for overcoming narrow thinking and making more informed decisions.

4. Anchors, Frames, and Resistance to Change: Mental Barriers

An anchor weighs down your thinking significantly by imposing an upper or lower limit on your estimations.

Anchoring and Framing. Anchoring and framing are cognitive biases that significantly influence decision-making by imposing arbitrary limits or manipulating the way information is presented. Anchoring involves being unduly influenced by an initial piece of information, while framing involves being swayed by the way something is phrased.

Status Quo and Sunk Cost Fallacies. Resistance to change is often driven by the status quo bias, which favors maintaining the current state, and the sunk cost fallacy, which involves clinging to past investments despite current losses. People are biased to maintain the status quo, or the perceived normalcy of something. As humans are naturally resistant to change, maintaining the status quo can be a hidden motive behind many decisions.

Overcoming Resistance. To overcome these barriers, it's crucial to challenge assumptions, reframe problems from different perspectives, and focus on future benefits rather than past investments. If something is costing you more than it is worth or if something is no longer making you happy, you should not consider what you have wasted on it. Instead, consider how it served you for a time and was worth what you put into it.

5. Strategies for Breaking Down Mental Barriers

Removing traps leaves your thinking clear and unimpeded.

Concept Maps. Concept maps help organize thoughts and break down complex issues into manageable components, facilitating clearer decision-making. As you jot down different ideas and facts, you cannot forget them or ignore them anymore. Furthermore, concept maps help you break things down into important points and less important points.

First Principles Reasoning. First principles reasoning involves breaking down problems into their fundamental truths and building solutions from there, rather than relying on assumptions or analogies. With first principles thinking, you break things down to the simple core truth and you go from there.

First- and Second-Order Thinking. First-order thinking focuses on immediate consequences, while second-order thinking considers the long-term implications of decisions. First order thinking is where you make a snap decision to address a problem in the short-term. Meanwhile, you inadvertently create more long-term problems.

The "Five Whys" and Fishbone Analysis. Asking "why" repeatedly helps uncover the root causes of problems, while fishbone analysis provides a visual framework for identifying multiple potential causes and solutions.

6. Liminal Thinking: Changing Your Mind, Changing Your Life

Liminal thinking is the belief that by changing your thinking, you can change your life.

Beliefs Shape Reality. Liminal thinking posits that beliefs are models that shape our perception of reality, and changing these beliefs can transform our lives. Your beliefs frame your entire reality. To bring about change, you must realize that your beliefs are not the end-all, be-all of existence.

Identifying Problematic Beliefs. The process begins with identifying problematic areas in one's life and analyzing the underlying beliefs that contribute to these issues. Look at your life and identify the problematic areas. Maybe you have relationship troubles or financial troubles that never seem to go away, no matter how hard you try to fix them.

Strategies for Changing Thinking. Disrupting routines, asking questions, considering alternative perspectives, and embracing new experiences are key strategies for challenging and changing limiting beliefs.

7. Cognitive Dissonance: The Enemy Within

That discomfort you feel when your ideas are challenged, when your actions don’t mesh with your beliefs, or when you are asked to do something you disagree with – that is cognitive dissonance.

The Discomfort of Inconsistency. Cognitive dissonance arises when conflicting beliefs or actions create mental discomfort, prompting individuals to adjust their beliefs or behaviors to restore equilibrium. The jarring sense that two ideas do not go together throws your brain into a state of frantic confusion.

Strategies to Reduce Dissonance. People employ various strategies, such as denial, rationalization, and bias, to avoid cognitive dissonance and maintain inner peace. You dismiss studies saying that smoking is bad for your health, or you simply choose not to think about those studies. You use disconfirmation bias and the Ostrich Effect to keep your “consonance,” or inner peace.

Self-Awareness and Honesty. Overcoming cognitive dissonance requires self-awareness, honesty, and a willingness to challenge one's own beliefs, even when it's uncomfortable. Really knowing yourself entails letting go of cognitive dissonance. To truly know yourself, you must stop lying.

Last updated: April 20, 2025