Bending Adversity

1. Tsunami Revealed Deep Resilience Amidst Chaos

As the crisis unfolded, there were many failings as well as much to admire, but the tragedy reminded us of what we should not have forgotten: the extraordinary resilience of a people who live in one of the most naturally unstable regions on earth.

Nature's fury. The 2011 earthquake and tsunami were a catastrophe of immense scale, wiping out towns like Rikuzentakata in minutes and causing widespread destruction along the northeast coast. The sheer power of the wave, reaching forty feet in some areas, overwhelmed defenses and transformed landscapes.

Orderly response. Despite the horror, the immediate aftermath saw remarkable displays of self-possession and community-mindedness.

• Orderly lines formed outside shops and evacuation centers.
• Survivors exhibited quiet dignity.
• Crime was virtually absent.
  This contrasted sharply with responses seen in other countries facing similar disasters.

Underlying resilience. The tragedy highlighted the deep-seated resilience of the Japanese people, forged over centuries of confronting natural disasters. While institutional failures were evident, the ability of individuals and communities to endure and begin rebuilding from the ground up was striking, embodying the proverb of bending adversity.

2. Japan's Island Mentality Shapes a Complex Relationship with the World

In the Japanese language, the word for island is shima... When the two are run together, they fuse into the magical sounding shimaguni, or ‘island nation’.

Sense of separateness. Japan's geographical isolation has fostered a strong sense of unique identity, often referred to as shimaguni. This has historically diluted foreign influences, allowing borrowed concepts (like Buddhism or Chinese characters) to evolve into distinct Japanese forms.

Double-edged sword. While isolation provided security and cultural distinctiveness, it also led to periods of self-imposed seclusion and a perceived insularity.

• The sakoku period (1603-1868) severely restricted contact with the outside world.
• Even after opening, a 'Galapagos mentality' sometimes led to technologies and practices too narrowly adapted for the domestic market.
  This complex relationship makes Japan seem mysterious or even unknowable to outsiders.

Cultural adaptation. Japan has a long history of selectively adopting and transforming foreign ideas rather than being overwhelmed by them. This ability to adapt while maintaining a core sense of self is a key aspect of its resilience, though it can also lead to resistance to external criticism or influence.

3. Leaving Asia Led to Imperial Ambition and Regional Isolation

From the opening up of the country in the Meiji period, the Japanese idea of what westernization meant was to be a good imperialist.

Western pressure. Confronted by Western imperial powers in the mid-19th century, Japan rapidly modernized during the Meiji Restoration (1868) to avoid colonization. This involved adopting Western technology, institutions, and, crucially, the logic of empire-building.

Asian rejection. Influenced by thinkers like Yukichi Fukuzawa, Japan sought to "leave the ranks of Asian nations" and align itself with the "civilized nations of the west." This led to:

• Imposing unequal treaties on Korea.
• Annexing Taiwan after the 1895 war with China.
• Defeating Russia in 1905.
• Formally annexing Korea in 1910.
  This aggressive expansionism aimed to gain international status but alienated its neighbors.

Tragic outcome. Japan's imperial project culminated in a brutal war across Asia, causing immense suffering and ultimately leading to its own devastating defeat in 1945. This history continues to strain relations with China and South Korea, leaving Japan isolated in its own region despite its economic power.

4. Post-War Miracle Built Wealth, But Lost Something Essential

Though Japan had found the key to economic development, it had perhaps lost something of itself in the process.

From ruins to riches. After the devastation of World War II, Japan achieved spectacular economic growth, averaging 10% annually from 1950-1973. This transformation from a defeated nation to an economic powerhouse was unprecedented.

Catch-up model. Driven by a national mission to rebuild and gain international prestige through economic means, Japan focused on:

• Export-led growth.
• State-guided industrial policy (MITI).
• Corporate structures like lifetime employment and keiretsu.
  This model proved highly effective in catching up with Western living standards.

Empty affluence. While achieving material wealth, some felt Japan had sacrificed other values in its relentless pursuit of GDP. Critics pointed to:

• Environmental destruction.
• Prioritization of production over consumer welfare.
• A sense of national purpose tied solely to economic expansion.
  This focus on "empty affluence" left a void when growth slowed.

5. Bubble Burst Ushered in Decades of Stagnation and Uncertainty

When the bubble burst, the idea of Japanese economic supremacy would be for ever discarded.

Excess and collapse. Fueled by easy money and speculative frenzy in the late 1980s, Japan experienced a massive asset bubble in stocks and real estate. When the central bank raised interest rates, the bubble burst in 1990, leading to a sharp decline in asset values.

Lost decades. The collapse ushered in a prolonged period of economic stagnation, often referred to as the "lost decades."

• Nominal GDP barely grew for twenty years.
• Deflation became entrenched, discouraging spending and investment.
• Banks were crippled by bad debts.
• The stock market plummeted and remained depressed.
  This marked a dramatic end to the era of rapid growth and challenged the notion of Japan's economic invincibility.

Psychological shock. Beyond the economic numbers, the bubble's collapse and subsequent stagnation eroded national confidence. The dream of Japan as "Number One" vanished, replaced by a sense of drift and uncertainty about the future, particularly for younger generations.

6. Political Dysfunction Persisted Despite Charismatic Interludes

Japan’s political system remains unequal to its task.

Post-bubble instability. The economic stagnation of the 1990s exposed and exacerbated flaws in Japan's political system. The long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) struggled to respond effectively, leading to a rapid succession of short-lived prime ministers.

Koizumi's moment. Junichiro Koizumi (2001-2006) offered a charismatic interlude, promising "reform without sacred cows" and challenging the LDP's old guard. His popularity and bold rhetoric created a sense of momentum.

• He tackled the banking crisis.
• He pushed for postal privatization.
• He engaged the public directly, bypassing traditional power brokers.
  However, his reforms were often incomplete, and his departure led to a return of political instability.

Revolving door. Despite the LDP briefly losing power in 2009, the period since the bubble burst has been characterized by political dysfunction and a lack of consistent leadership. This has hampered the ability to address long-term challenges, leaving many citizens disillusioned with the political class.

7. Economic Stagnation Reshaped Youth, Work, and Inequality

For the younger generation to have any hope... I really hope the old system collapses totally.

End of the "promised road". The economic slowdown and corporate restructuring after the bubble burst fundamentally altered the labor market, particularly for young people. The traditional path of lifetime employment at a major corporation became less accessible.

Rise of precarious work. Companies shifted towards hiring more non-regular workers (freeters), leading to:

• Lower wages and job insecurity.
• A widening gap between those with stable jobs and those without.
• A sense of being "frozen out" of the system for many young people.
  This challenged the post-war ideal of an egalitarian, middle-class society.

Shifting values. While some lamented the loss of security, others saw the changes as an opportunity for greater freedom and personal choice. Some young people prioritized work-life balance and social contribution over traditional corporate careers, leading to a search for new ways of living beyond the old economic model.

8. Women Assert Independence, Challenging Traditional Roles

In hidden places, Japanese women always had power, it’s true.

Discrimination persists. Despite legal protections, Japanese women continue to face significant discrimination in the workplace and society. They are underrepresented in leadership positions and earn significantly less than men on average.

Behind the screen. Traditionally, women often wielded influence from behind the scenes, controlling household finances and managing family life while men focused on corporate careers. This created a complex dynamic where men were often reliant on women in private life.

Asserting agency. Economic and social changes are empowering women to challenge traditional roles and seek greater independence.

• More women are delaying marriage and childbirth.
• Divorce rates have risen, with women often initiating separation.
• Women are increasingly entering the workforce, though often in precarious jobs.
  This shift is altering gender dynamics and contributing to demographic changes, despite resistance from traditionalists.

9. Historical Memory Strains Relations with Asian Neighbors

Even after its defeat in the Second World War, Japan was spared full colonization... The Americans... stayed only seven years and ran the country at arm’s length through a local bureaucracy. That was not even long enough to leave a strong tradition of proficiency in the English language.

Unresolved past. Unlike Germany, Japan has struggled to achieve full reconciliation with its former wartime enemies, particularly China and South Korea. Disputes over historical memory, textbooks, and visits to Yasukuni shrine continue to fuel resentment.

Differing perspectives. While many Japanese see themselves as victims of the atomic bombs and guardians of pacifism, neighbors often view Japan as an unrepentant former aggressor.

• Japan points to apologies and aid payments.
• Neighbors point to perceived denials of atrocities and visits to Yasukuni shrine.
  This fundamental disconnect makes genuine trust difficult.

Rising tensions. The shift in the balance of power with China's rise has exacerbated historical tensions. Territorial disputes, like that over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, have become flashpoints, revealing how easily old animosities can resurface and complicate regional stability.

10. Fukushima Exposed a Man-Made Disaster Rooted in Cultural Flaws

This was a disaster “Made in Japan,”... Its fundamental causes are to be found in the ingrained conventions of Japanese culture: our reflexive obedience; our reluctance to question authority; our devotion to “sticking with the programme”; our groupism and our insularity.

Systemic failure. The Fukushima nuclear accident was not solely a natural disaster but a "profoundly manmade" catastrophe, according to a parliamentary inquiry. It resulted from a culture of denial, arrogance, and collusion within the "nuclear village" of industry, regulators, and government.

Culture of complacency. The inquiry criticized deeply ingrained Japanese traits that contributed to the disaster:

• Reflexive obedience and reluctance to question authority.
• Devotion to "sticking with the programme" (groupism).
• Insularity and lack of external scrutiny.
  This critique suggested that the very characteristics once lauded in Nihonjinron studies had become fatal flaws in a complex, high-stakes industry.

Loss of trust. The accident and the subsequent lack of transparency from Tepco and the government severely eroded public trust. It highlighted the dangers of a system where powerful institutions prioritized their own interests and myths (like the "safety myth" of nuclear power) over public safety and honesty.

11. Civil Society Emerges, Empowering Citizens Beyond the State

I do kind of believe that a new spirit and new ideas are emerging in many parts of society... This crisis I believe has sown the seeds of new thinking.

Beyond the state. Amidst political dysfunction and institutional failures, particularly evident after the tsunami, there's a growing sense that citizens must take matters into their own hands. This marks a shift from a society traditionally seen as top-down and reliant on the state or corporations.

Rise of volunteerism. The Kobe earthquake (1995) and especially the 2011 tsunami spurred a significant increase in volunteer activity.

• Volunteers provided crucial aid and support in disaster zones.
• Non-profit organizations became more professional and coordinated.
  This demonstrated a growing capacity for bottom-up social solidarity and action.

Increased transparency and activism. Citizens are increasingly demanding more transparent governance and accountability. Legal changes have expanded the right to information, and grassroots movements are challenging authority on issues ranging from nuclear power to national identification systems, signaling the slow emergence of a more active civil society.

12. Abenomics Represents a Bold, Risky Quest for Revival

I will bring back a strong Japan, strong first in its economy, and strong also in its national defence.

Quest for revival. After years of stagnation and deflation, Shinzo Abe's return to power in 2012 brought a bold new economic strategy: Abenomics. This aimed to shock the economy out of its rut and restore national vigor.

Three arrows. Abenomics consists of three main components:

• Aggressive monetary easing (printing money to target inflation).
• Fiscal stimulus (government spending on infrastructure).
• Structural reforms (deregulation to boost competitiveness).
  The goal is to create inflation, weaken the yen, and spur growth, making Japan's debt more manageable and restoring confidence.

Risks and potential. While Abenomics has generated initial optimism and market rallies, it faces significant risks, including potential hyperinflation, rising interest rates on debt, and resistance to structural reforms. Its success is uncertain, but it represents a decisive break from the cautious policies of the past, driven by a desire to make Japan strong again in the face of domestic challenges and a rising China.

Last updated: May 20, 2025