Climate Change

1. Climate change is unequivocal and human-caused

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.

The evidence is overwhelming. Multiple independent lines of evidence confirm that human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are causing the Earth to warm at an unprecedented rate. Observations show rising temperatures, melting ice sheets, rising sea levels, and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. The rate of warming in recent decades far exceeds natural variability.

Scientific consensus is clear. 97% of climate scientists agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activities. Every major scientific organization in the world has endorsed this position. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states with "high confidence" that human influence has been the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid-20th century.

Natural factors alone cannot explain the warming. While the climate has changed naturally in the past, the current rate of change is 50 times faster than any known natural climate shift. Factors like solar activity and volcanic eruptions have been ruled out as primary causes of recent warming. Only when human greenhouse gas emissions are factored in do climate models match observed temperature increases.

2. Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe

We expect some of the most significant impacts of climate change to occur when natural variability is exacerbated by long-term global warming, so that even small changes in global temperatures can produce damaging local and regional effects.

Heat waves are intensifying. As average temperatures rise, extreme heat events are becoming more frequent, more intense, and longer-lasting. Heat waves that previously occurred once every 20 years are now happening every few years in many regions. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable due to the heat island effect.

Precipitation patterns are changing. Warmer air holds more moisture, leading to more intense rainfall events and flooding in some areas. At the same time, other regions are experiencing more severe and prolonged droughts. The contrast between wet and dry areas is increasing globally.

Storms are becoming more destructive. While the total number of storms may not increase, climate change is making hurricanes and tropical storms more intense. Warmer ocean temperatures provide more energy to fuel stronger storms. Rising sea levels also amplify the damage from storm surges.

Other extreme weather trends:

• More frequent and intense wildfires
• Longer and more severe droughts in many regions
• Increased flooding due to heavy precipitation events
• More persistent weather patterns leading to prolonged extremes

3. Sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal areas

We basically have three choices: mitigation, adaptation and suffering. We're going to do some of each. The question is what the mix is going to be. The more mitigation we do, the less adaptation will be required and the less suffering there will be.

The threat is accelerating. Sea levels are rising faster than previously projected due to thermal expansion of the oceans and melting ice sheets. Recent studies suggest sea level could rise 3-6 feet or more by 2100 if emissions continue unabated. This puts many coastal cities and low-lying areas at risk of permanent inundation.

Coastal property values may crash. As the risks of flooding and storm surge damage increase, coastal real estate may become uninsurable and lose value rapidly. This could lead to a coastal property bubble worth over $1 trillion in the U.S. alone. Areas like Miami and much of Florida are particularly vulnerable.

Adaptation will be costly and difficult. While some areas can be protected with sea walls and other infrastructure, many low-lying regions will likely have to be abandoned. Salt water intrusion threatens coastal aquifers and agriculture. Hundreds of millions of people globally may be displaced by rising seas this century.

4. Global warming could lead to catastrophic impacts if unchecked

In such a 4°C world, the limits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, while the limits for adaptation for natural systems would largely be exceeded throughout the world.

Food and water security are at risk. Warming of 4°C or more could lead to widespread crop failures and water shortages affecting billions of people. Many of the world's most productive agricultural regions could become too hot and dry to support current levels of food production.

Ecosystems face collapse. Rapid warming threatens to overwhelm the ability of many plant and animal species to adapt or migrate. Mass extinctions of 30-50% of species are possible. Coral reefs and other crucial ecosystems may disappear entirely.

Human health and society will be severely impacted. Extreme heat, the spread of tropical diseases, air pollution, and food/water shortages could lead to millions of excess deaths. Climate refugees and resource conflicts may destabilize many regions. Some heavily populated areas may become uninhabitable.

Other potential catastrophic impacts:

• Shutdown of ocean circulation patterns
• Rapid sea level rise of 10+ feet
• Release of methane from thawing permafrost
• Die-off of Amazon rainforest
• Collapse of ice sheets leading to 20+ feet of sea level rise

5. Reducing emissions requires a rapid transition to clean energy

The sun could be the world's largest source of electricity by 2050, ahead of fossil fuels, wind, hydro and nuclear.

Renewable energy is key. Solar and wind power have seen dramatic cost reductions and are now cost-competitive with fossil fuels in many markets. Their rapid growth must continue to displace coal, oil, and natural gas in electricity generation.

Electrification of transport is crucial. Electric vehicles powered by clean electricity can dramatically reduce emissions from cars, trucks, and other transport. Improvements in batteries are making EVs increasingly practical and affordable.

Energy efficiency must be maximized. Improving the efficiency of buildings, appliances, vehicles, and industrial processes can greatly reduce energy demand and emissions while saving money. Many efficiency upgrades have rapid payback periods.

Other important clean energy solutions:

• Nuclear power
• Geothermal energy
• Advanced energy storage
• Smart grids and demand response
• Carbon capture and storage (for remaining fossil fuels)

6. Energy efficiency and conservation are crucial climate solutions

Energy efficiency is the invisible powerhouse in IEA countries and beyond, working behind the scenes to improve our energy security, lower our energy bills and move us closer to reaching our climate goals.

Efficiency is the cheapest solution. Improving energy efficiency in buildings, transportation, and industry is often the most cost-effective way to reduce emissions. Many efficiency upgrades pay for themselves through energy savings.

The potential is enormous. Studies show that aggressive efficiency measures could reduce global energy demand by 30-50% compared to business-as-usual projections. This would dramatically reduce the challenge of transitioning to clean energy sources.

Co-benefits are significant. In addition to reducing emissions, energy efficiency improvements often lead to cost savings, improved comfort and productivity, reduced air pollution, and increased energy security. The health benefits alone can outweigh the costs of efficiency measures.

Key areas for efficiency improvements:

• Building insulation and weatherization
• High-efficiency lighting (LEDs)
• Smart thermostats and energy management systems
• Industrial process improvements
• Vehicle fuel economy standards

7. Climate action is economically beneficial and morally imperative

The science linking human activities to climate change is analogous to the science linking smoking to lung and cardiovascular diseases.

The costs of inaction far outweigh the costs of action. Multiple economic analyses have found that the damages from unchecked climate change would be far more expensive than the costs of reducing emissions. Early action is much cheaper than delayed action.

Clean energy creates jobs and drives innovation. The transition to a low-carbon economy is creating millions of new jobs in renewable energy, energy efficiency, clean transportation, and related fields. It's also spurring technological innovation and economic competitiveness.

Climate change is a moral issue. The impacts of climate change disproportionately affect the world's poorest and most vulnerable populations, who have contributed least to the problem. Future generations will also suffer the consequences of our emissions today. Taking action is a moral imperative.

Economic benefits of climate action:

• Avoided climate damages (floods, droughts, sea level rise, etc.)
• Reduced healthcare costs from air pollution
• Energy cost savings from efficiency
• New jobs in clean energy industries
• Export opportunities for clean technologies

8. Individual choices can make a difference in fighting climate change

A quarter of the energy we use is just in our crap.

Personal carbon footprints matter. While systemic changes are crucial, individual choices about energy use, transportation, diet, and consumption can significantly reduce one's carbon footprint. These choices also help shift cultural norms and market demand.

Key areas for individual action:

• Home energy efficiency (insulation, LED lights, smart thermostats)
• Transportation (walking, biking, public transit, electric vehicles)
• Diet (reducing meat consumption, especially beef)
• Reducing consumption and waste
• Installing rooftop solar panels
• Choosing clean electricity providers

Engaging others amplifies impact. Discussing climate change with friends, family, and colleagues helps spread awareness and catalyze broader action. Supporting climate-friendly policies and businesses can drive systemic change.

9. Coastal property values may crash due to climate risks

Miami, as we know it today, is doomed. It's not a question of if. It's a question of when.

Sea level rise threatens trillions in assets. Over $1 trillion in U.S. coastal property alone is at risk from rising seas and increasing storm surges. Areas like Miami, much of Florida, and other low-lying coastal regions face existential threats.

Insurance and mortgages may become unavailable. As flood risks increase, many coastal properties may become uninsurable. Without insurance, mortgages will be impossible to obtain, leaving only wealthy cash buyers in the market.

A coastal real estate bubble may be forming. Despite the growing risks, many coastal property markets continue to boom. This bubble is likely to burst as climate risks become more apparent, potentially triggering a broader economic crisis.

Factors driving coastal property risks:

• Accelerating sea level rise (potentially 6+ feet by 2100)
• Increasing storm surge damage
• Salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers
• Eventual need to abandon some low-lying areas

10. The future job market will be shaped by climate change

Climate change and our response to it will create trillion-dollar industries in low-carbon energy, energy efficiency, sustainable agriculture, and every type of adaptation imaginable.

Clean energy jobs are booming. Solar and wind industries are creating jobs 12 times faster than the rest of the U.S. economy. Energy efficiency, electric vehicles, and related fields are also seeing rapid job growth.

Climate adaptation will drive employment. As climate impacts worsen, there will be growing demand for workers in fields like coastal engineering, water management, sustainable agriculture, and disaster response and recovery.

Traditional industries will need to adapt. Many existing jobs and industries will need to evolve to remain relevant in a low-carbon, climate-changed world. This includes areas like architecture, urban planning, finance, and insurance.

Emerging climate-related career fields:

• Renewable energy technology and installation
• Energy efficiency auditing and retrofitting
• Electric vehicle design and manufacturing
• Climate risk assessment and management
• Sustainable agriculture and food systems
• Environmental remediation and ecosystem restoration

Last updated: August 9, 2024