Criminal (In)Justice

1. Crime concentration: The myth of widespread violence

"If you were to randomly drop 10,000 people over the United States, the overwhelming majority of them will land someplace with a murder rate close to zero."

Geographic concentration. Contrary to popular belief, violent crime in America is highly concentrated in specific areas. About 2% of counties account for 50% of all murders, while over half of counties see no murders in a given year. This concentration extends to urban areas, where a small number of neighborhoods experience disproportionately high crime rates.

Demographic concentration. Crime is also concentrated among specific demographic groups. For example, since at least 2008 in New York City, a minimum of 95% of shooting victims have been either Black or Hispanic. This concentration challenges the notion of widespread violence and highlights the need for targeted interventions.

• 2% of counties = 50% of murders
• 54% of counties = 0 murders annually
• 95% of NYC shooting victims = Black or Hispanic

2. Incarceration realities: Who's really behind bars?

"Contrary to conventional wisdom that American prisons are teeming with petty thieves and nonviolent drug offenders, incarceration in the United States is already largely reserved for serious, violent, prolific offenders."

Violent offenders dominate. Over 60% of state prisoners are incarcerated primarily for violent or weapons offenses. Just four violent offense categories – murder, rape/sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated/simple assault – account for more than half of state prisoners. Contrary to popular belief, less than 15% of state prisoners are incarcerated primarily for drug offenses.

Repeat offenders. The average state prisoner has between 10 and 12 prior arrests and 5 to 6 prior convictions. This indicates that most incarcerated individuals have had multiple chances before serving prison time. Recidivism rates are high, with 70-77% of released prisoners being rearrested within five years.

• 60% of state prisoners = violent/weapons offenses
• 50.5% of state prisoners = murder, rape, robbery, assault
• <15% of state prisoners = primarily drug offenses
• Average prisoner = 10-12 prior arrests, 5-6 prior convictions
• 70-77% recidivism rate within 5 years

3. Pretrial detention: Balancing liberty and public safety

"Expanding pretrial release for its own sake inherently raises the risks to the public's safety, just as restricting pretrial release for its own sake raises the risks to the liberty interests of criminal defendants."

Cash bail problems. Relying heavily on cash bail can lead to unjust outcomes, where dangerous but wealthy defendants can secure release while harmless but poor defendants remain detained. This highlights the need for reform in pretrial justice systems.

Risk assessment tools. A more effective approach involves using validated algorithmic risk assessment tools to inform judicial decisions about pretrial release. These tools consider factors like criminal history and age to provide a more objective framework for assessing a defendant's risk to public safety.

Resource allocation. Many pretrial detention issues stem from a lack of resources in the criminal justice system. Increasing funding for prosecutors, public defenders, and judges can help expedite case processing and reduce the time defendants spend in pretrial detention.

• Cash bail = potential for unjust outcomes
• Risk assessment tools = more objective framework
• Increased funding = faster case processing

4. The complex impact of incarceration on families

"There is no question that two parents are better than one, and it seems pretty clear that fathers play an important role—as role models, authority figures, and so forth—in the development of their children."

Antisocial behavior transmission. Research suggests that the presence of highly antisocial parents can be more detrimental to children than the absence of a prosocial parent. Children living with fathers who engage in high levels of antisocial behavior tend to develop more behavioral problems than those whose antisocial fathers are absent.

Incarceration benefits. Some studies have found that parental incarceration can have beneficial effects on children, reducing their likelihood of future incarceration and improving their socioeconomic status. This challenges the assumption that keeping criminal offenders with their families is always in the best interest of the children.

Nuanced approach needed. The impact of incarceration on families is complex and cannot be reduced to simple generalizations. Policy decisions should consider the specific circumstances of each case, weighing the potential benefits of incarceration against its costs to family stability.

• Antisocial parents = potential negative influence
• Parental incarceration = possible benefits for children
• Case-by-case assessment = necessary for policy decisions

5. Police use of force: Rare occurrences in context

"In reality, police very rarely use force; and when they do, it very rarely results in serious injury."

Statistical rarity. Police use of force, especially deadly force, is extremely rare when considered in the context of overall police activity. In 2018, an estimated 3,043 police firearm discharges occurred during over 10.3 million arrests. This means that at most, only 0.03% of arrests resulted in a police shooting.

Non-deadly force. Even non-deadly force is uncommon. A study of over 1 million calls for service found that police used physical force in only 1 out of every 128 arrests. Of those instances, 98% of suspects sustained no or mild injury.

Public perception gap. Despite these statistics, public perception often overestimates the frequency of police violence. This misperception can lead to decreased trust in law enforcement and reduced community cooperation, potentially undermining public safety efforts.

• 0.03% of arrests = police shooting (at most)
• 1 in 128 arrests = physical force used
• 98% of force incidents = no or mild injury
• Public perception ≠ statistical reality

6. The false positive problem in policing: A two-way street

"What if at least part of the false-positive problem isn't just driven by police acting on racial biases, but also by cops picking up on cues that Black and brown men are themselves purposefully putting out into the world—cues associated with the kind of criminality police are trying to prevent and suss out?"

Cultural factors. The "code of the street" in some urban communities encourages behaviors and attitudes that may be misinterpreted by police as indicators of criminal intent. This includes adopting tough personas and displaying distrust of law enforcement, which can lead to increased scrutiny.

Crime patterns influence. Police resource deployment is often based on crime patterns, which can result in more frequent interactions with minority residents in high-crime areas. This concentration of police activity can lead to a higher rate of false-positive encounters in these communities.

Data reliability issues. The reliability of stop-and-frisk data, often used to criticize police practices, may be questionable due to factors such as misreporting and changes in police incentives. This highlights the need for caution when interpreting statistics on police-citizen interactions.

• "Code of the street" = potential misinterpretation
• Crime pattern-based deployment = concentrated interactions
• Stop-and-frisk data = potential reliability issues

7. Race and criminal justice: Beyond simplistic narratives

"While people of color may bear a disproportionate share of the costs attributable to policing, the burden of serious violent crime increases is one that also falls disproportionately on the shoulders of people of color."

Contextualizing disparities. Racial disparities in criminal justice outcomes often decrease significantly when relevant factors such as crime rates and criminal histories are controlled for. This suggests that simplistic narratives of systemic racism may not fully explain observed disparities.

Disproportionate victimization. People of color, particularly Black Americans, are disproportionately affected by violent crime. For example, Black men are more than ten times more likely than their white counterparts to be homicide victims. This reality complicates discussions about race and criminal justice.

Uneven reform impacts. Criminal justice reforms aimed at addressing racial disparities can have unintended consequences. Reduced enforcement and incarceration may lead to increased crime in vulnerable communities, disproportionately affecting the very populations these reforms aim to help.

• Controlled studies = reduced racial disparities
• Black men = 10x higher homicide victimization rate
• Well-intentioned reforms = potential negative impacts

Last updated: February 4, 2025