Don't Wait for the Next War

1. America needs a new national strategy to address long-term challenges

We need a strategy resting on a foundation of fear, but also claiming for the United States the moral "high ground" of saving mankind.

Five key challenges confront the United States: terrorism, cybersecurity, financial system vulnerabilities, China's rise, and climate change. These interconnected issues require a comprehensive, long-term strategy that goes beyond military solutions. Unlike past threats like the Soviet Union, these challenges cannot be addressed through containment or deterrence alone.

The strategy must:

• Unite Americans around a common purpose without relying on war
• Balance economic growth with environmental responsibility
• Leverage America's strengths in innovation and entrepreneurship
• Enhance cooperation with allies while managing competition with rivals
• Address domestic political divisions that undermine US influence abroad

A new national strategy is essential to reverse America's perceived decline and restore its global leadership role. By focusing on these long-term challenges, the US can move beyond reactive crisis management to proactively shape the international order.

2. Energy Independence Plus can reverse America's economic decline

Energy independence would allow us to capture the $200 billion to $300 billion we spend each year importing petroleum.

Economic renaissance. Achieving energy independence through increased domestic production of oil, natural gas, biofuels and other sources could add up to $700 billion to annual US GDP by 2020. This would create millions of jobs, reduce the trade deficit, and provide resources to address other national priorities.

Key elements of Energy Independence Plus:

• Increase oil and gas production on federal lands
• Expand biofuels production to 36 billion gallons annually by 2022
• Develop oil shale, gas-to-liquids, and coal-to-liquids technologies
• Export excess production to strengthen US influence in energy markets

Coupling energy independence with a carbon tax to address climate change could unite competing interests and restore America's economic vitality. This "grand compromise" would leverage US energy resources in the near-term while transitioning to cleaner technologies long-term.

3. Terrorism remains a persistent threat requiring multilateral efforts

Although their capabilities are not yet—and perhaps never will be—sufficient to be considered "existential" to the United States, the various Islamist terrorist groups can wreak political and economic havoc abroad, and they could stage attacks that would have significant consequences for the United States.

Evolving threat. While core Al-Qaeda has been degraded, affiliated groups have proliferated across 70 countries. The conflict in Syria has created a new generation of battle-hardened extremists who may eventually return to the West. Self-radicalization and "lone wolf" attacks present additional challenges.

Counterterrorism priorities:

• Deny terrorist safe havens through targeted operations
• Undercut extremist ideologies and recruitment narratives
• Promote economic development in ungoverned spaces
• Enhance intelligence sharing and law enforcement cooperation
• Balance security measures with civil liberties and privacy protections

Addressing root causes of terrorism requires patient, long-term efforts to promote good governance, economic opportunity, and human rights. Military force alone cannot defeat terrorist ideologies.

4. Cybersecurity vulnerabilities demand urgent public-private collaboration

The United States is probably the most vulnerable nation in the world in terms of cyber-threats because our economy and infrastructure are so deeply connected to the Internet.

Critical infrastructure at risk. Cyber attacks and intrusions threaten national security, economic competitiveness, and personal privacy. State-sponsored hackers, organized crime, and terrorist groups are targeting US government, military, and corporate networks to steal sensitive data and disrupt operations.

Cybersecurity priorities:

• Strengthen public-private partnerships to protect critical infrastructure
• Improve threat detection, information sharing, and incident response
• Develop international norms and agreements on cyber warfare
• Invest in offensive and defensive cyber capabilities
• Balance security with privacy protections and Internet freedom

Securing cyberspace requires overcoming industry resistance to regulation and public skepticism about government surveillance. New legislation and policies are needed to clarify roles, responsibilities, and authorities in cyberspace.

5. The US financial system requires reform to prevent future crises

We conclude this financial crisis was avoidable. The crisis was the result of human action and inaction. . . . We conclude widespread failures in financial regulation and supervision proved devastating to the stability of the nation's financial markets.

Systemic risks remain. The 2008 financial crisis exposed deep flaws in the US financial system, including inadequate regulation, excessive leverage, and misaligned incentives. While some reforms have been implemented, the financial sector remains a source of potential instability.

Financial reform priorities:

• Strengthen capital requirements and leverage restrictions for banks
• Improve transparency and oversight of derivatives markets
• Reform credit rating agencies to reduce conflicts of interest
• Address "too big to fail" problem through breakups or living wills
• Align executive compensation with long-term performance

Balancing financial innovation with stability is an ongoing challenge. Reducing the outsized influence of the financial sector on the broader economy may be necessary to promote long-term growth and reduce inequality.

6. China's rise presents both opportunities and strategic challenges

The issue before the world is whether, as China gets stronger, we in the West can work with China. And the issue is also whether China can work with us to create an international structure in which, for the first time in history, a rising state has been incorporated into an international system and strengthened peace and progress.

Managing competition and cooperation. China's economic and military rise is shifting the global balance of power. While economic interdependence creates shared interests, strategic competition is intensifying, especially in Asia. The US must find ways to accommodate China's legitimate aspirations while preserving its own influence and values.

Key priorities:

• Strengthen US alliances and partnerships in Asia
• Engage China on shared challenges like climate change and terrorism
• Promote rules-based resolution of territorial disputes
• Maintain military deterrence while expanding mil-to-mil cooperation
• Encourage Chinese integration into global institutions and norms

The US-China relationship will shape the 21st century global order. Avoiding conflict while managing competition requires sustained diplomatic engagement and strategic patience on both sides.

7. Climate change is an existential threat requiring global leadership

The scientific consensus that the earth is warming and that mankind's activities are largely responsible for this climate change is well-established, and is in most developed nations accepted as scientific truth—though roughly half of Americans do not accept this.

Urgent action needed. Climate change poses grave risks to global security, economic prosperity, and human welfare. Rising temperatures, extreme weather, and sea level rise threaten food and water security, increase conflict risks, and could trigger catastrophic tipping points in the climate system.

Climate priorities:

• Implement carbon pricing to reduce emissions economy-wide
• Accelerate transition to clean energy and low-carbon technologies
• Strengthen climate resilience and adaptation capabilities
• Mobilize climate finance for developing countries
• Lead diplomatic efforts for an ambitious global climate agreement

US leadership is essential to galvanize global action on climate change. Coupling climate action with energy independence can align environmental and economic interests while restoring America's moral authority.

8. New economic tools can enhance US influence abroad

We need a more powerful means of bringing resources abroad to back entrepreneurial talent.

Economic statecraft. Traditional foreign aid and military assistance are insufficient to advance US interests in a complex global economy. New tools are needed to promote development, counter Chinese influence, and shape the international economic order.

Proposed new tools:

• US sovereign wealth fund to make strategic investments abroad
• Public-private partnerships for profit in developing countries
• Economic development strategies tailored to each country's needs
• Expanded use of entrepreneurial talent in foreign assistance

These tools would enable the US to compete more effectively with China's state-directed investments while promoting market-based development. They would complement existing diplomatic and military instruments of national power.

9. An Energy-Enabled Strategy can unite domestic interests and restore US power

E2S is a long-term strategy aimed at securing our future; it labels no enemies or adversaries, and is directed against no other power. Instead it aims to promote a better future for all Americans, and in so doing, to enable America to continue its historical leadership role in helping others.

Unifying vision. An Energy-Enabled Strategy for Growth, Responsible Development, and Security (E2S) provides a framework to address long-term challenges while revitalizing the US economy. By pursuing energy independence and climate leadership simultaneously, America can overcome partisan divisions and regain global influence.

Key elements of E2S:

• Accelerate domestic energy production across all sources
• Implement carbon pricing to drive clean energy innovation
• Invest in infrastructure, education, and advanced manufacturing
• Deploy new economic tools to promote development abroad
• Maintain military superiority while emphasizing diplomatic and economic power

E2S offers a positive vision for American renewal that does not rely on identifying external enemies. It leverages US strengths to shape a more prosperous, secure, and sustainable future.

Last updated: July 20, 2024