Going Mainstream

1. Radical Ideas Mainstream Through Subcultures

In the beginning was a deviant subculture.

Subcultures as incubators. Radical ideas often begin in fringe subcultures, far from the mainstream. These groups provide a space for individuals with unconventional beliefs to connect, reinforce their views, and develop a shared identity. Incels, for example, started as a support group for those struggling with intimacy but evolved into a misogynistic community.

From fringe to influence. Subcultures can gain influence by tapping into widespread grievances and offering a sense of community and agency. The Manosphere, a collection of anti-feminist online communities, has successfully repackaged old patriarchal structures, making them seem new and radical. This has led to a backlash against feminism, with a growing number of men believing it does more harm than good.

The role of identity. These subcultures create a strong sense of belonging, often based on shared opposition to mainstream values. This can lead to "identity fusion," where an individual's personal identity becomes intertwined with their group identity. This phenomenon can be triggered by conflicts with political opponents or perceived suppression by the government, potentially leading to violence.

2. Networks Cultivate and Amplify Extreme Beliefs

For those with deviant beliefs, it used to be difficult to find likeminded people.

Connecting the disconnected. The internet has made it easier than ever for individuals with fringe beliefs to find each other and form powerful networks. Climate change skepticism, for example, has been fueled by a well-funded network of organizations that cast doubt on established climate science. These networks span business, politics, and civil society, creating their own alternative media ecosystems.

Exploiting crises. Extreme movements often capitalize on disasters, wars, and uncertainty to expand their reach. The COVID-19 pandemic, for instance, provided fertile ground for conspiracy theories and anti-establishment sentiment. Climate change deniers have also opportunistically hijacked COVID-related language to discredit environmental movements.

International collaboration. Social media has enabled climate change skeptics and other extremist groups to team up internationally and have a disproportionate impact on public discourse. These networks often employ tactics such as "deny, deceive, and delay" to undermine trust in science and delay government action.

3. Alt-Media Ecosystems Boost Fringe Narratives

The media doesn’t report the truth.

Distrust in mainstream media. A key strategy of extremist movements is to undermine trust in traditional media outlets. This creates a vacuum that is filled by alternative media sources, which often promote biased or false information. The rise of alt-media has shifted the Overton Window, allowing for more extreme language and imagery to enter mainstream discourse.

Amplifying hate. Alt-media ecosystems provide a platform for hate speech and disinformation, which can have real-world consequences. Targeted online intimidation campaigns against women, for example, have become increasingly common, leading to self-censorship and withdrawal from public life. The "Great Replacement" theory, a white supremacist conspiracy myth, has also been amplified by alt-media and has inspired multiple deadly terror attacks.

The power of influencers. Alt-media ecosystems rely on influencers to spread their messages to a wider audience. Figures like Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson, and Kanye West have been criticized for amplifying extremist ideas and conspiracy theories. These influencers can have a significant impact on public attitudes and behavior.

4. Backlashes Emerge Against Social Progress

Public attitudes are particularly prone to manipulation when large parts of civil society have difficulty keeping up with the pace of cultural and societal change.

Resistance to change. As societies become more inclusive and progressive, backlashes often emerge from those who feel threatened by these changes. The LGBTQ+ community, for example, has faced increasing hostility in recent years, despite growing visibility and acceptance. This backlash is often fueled by a combination of old prejudices and new extremist tropes.

Weaponizing fear. Anti-LGBTQ+ campaigns often exploit fears about children and safety. The "Don't Say Gay" legislation in Florida, for example, was part of a larger effort to demonize LGBTQ+ people and restrict their rights. These campaigns often rely on disinformation and conspiracy theories to stoke fear and anger.

Unlikely alliances. The backlash against social progress can bring together unlikely allies, such as ultra-conservatives and radical feminist activists. These groups may have different motivations, but they share a common goal of opposing progressive policies and values. This can create a powerful force that threatens to undo years of progress.

5. Disinformation Persuades the Masses

The coming decade will bring one major threat: the mainstreaming of extreme ideas.

The infodemic. The COVID-19 pandemic unleashed a worldwide "infodemic," with disinformation spreading even faster than the virus itself. This has led to declining trust in scientists and medical professionals, making it harder to combat the pandemic. Anti-vaxxer movements have also gained traction, fueled by conspiracy theories and distrust in authority.

Exploiting anxieties. Disinformation often targets people's fears and anxieties, offering simple explanations for complex problems. This can be particularly effective in times of crisis, when people are looking for answers and reassurance. QAnon, for example, has tapped into widespread anxieties about child exploitation and government corruption.

The power of repetition. Disinformation is often spread through repetition, making it seem more credible over time. This can lead to the "illusory truth effect," where people are more likely to believe statements they have heard repeatedly, even if they are false. This effect is amplified by social media algorithms, which can create echo chambers where people are only exposed to information that confirms their existing beliefs.

6. Culture Wars Serve as Proxy Battles

As extreme voices grow louder in parliaments, street protests and online debates, our society is becoming increasingly fractured.

Clash of values. The Ukraine war has become a proxy battle in the larger culture war between liberal and illiberal values. Putin has framed the conflict as a defense of traditional values against the "degeneracy" of the West. This has resonated with far-right and conspiracy myth communities in Europe and North America.

Exploiting divisions. Russia has long sought to destabilize Western democracies by exploiting internal divisions. This has involved supporting far-right political parties, spreading disinformation, and interfering in elections. The goal is to sow chaos and undermine trust in democratic institutions.

The role of propaganda. Russian propaganda often targets specific groups, such as LGBTQ+ people and ethnic minorities, to stoke fear and resentment. This can lead to increased hate crimes and violence. The war in Ukraine has also been used to justify attacks on progressive policies and values.

7. Counteracting Extremism Requires Multi-Faceted Strategies

As a society we have a relatively good understanding of what the radicalisation process looks like.

Tackling touchpoints. Counteracting extremism requires a multi-faceted approach that addresses the psychological, social, and technological factors that contribute to radicalization. This includes understanding widespread anxieties, engaging with online subcultures, and regulating social media algorithms. It also requires building trust in reliable sources of information and promoting critical thinking skills.

Rallying stakeholders. Effective counter-extremism efforts require collaboration between policymakers, tech firms, educators, and community leaders. This includes sharing best practices, developing innovative interventions, and holding private sector companies accountable for supporting extremist propaganda. It also requires forming activist coalitions to address the interconnected nature of extremist ideologies.

Addressing generations. Different generations require different approaches to counter-radicalization. Younger generations need to be equipped with digital literacy skills and exposed to diverse perspectives. Older generations may benefit from historical context and emotional support. The goal is to build resilience against manipulation and promote critical thinking skills across all age groups.

Last updated: March 27, 2025