Hive Mind

1. National IQ Predicts Prosperity More Than Individual IQ

Outside of a few countries with abundant natural resources, the most important productive asset in each nation is the human mind.

The Paradox of IQ. While individual IQ scores have a moderate impact on personal success, a nation's average IQ is a strong predictor of its economic prosperity. Nations with higher average test scores tend to have more efficient governments, better infrastructure, and greater private investment. This is the central paradox: individual IQ doesn't guarantee success, but national IQ strongly correlates with national wealth.

National Test Scores as Predictors. Standardized tests, including IQ tests, math tests, and literacy tests, provide valuable insights into a nation's cognitive skills. These scores often outperform years of schooling as predictors of economic performance, suggesting that the quality of education and the underlying cognitive abilities of the population are critical factors. Nations with high test scores are either already rich or growing rapidly, indicating a strong link between cognitive skills and economic development.

The Hive Mind. The concept of a "hive mind" or "collective intelligence" suggests that a nation's prosperity is driven by the accumulated knowledge and cognitive contributions of its citizens. This collective intelligence benefits all members of society, creating a positive feedback loop where higher average IQ leads to greater productivity and prosperity. The key question is whether a nation’s average IQ scores are an important driver of the hive mind.

2. The Da Vinci Effect Amplifies National Cognitive Skills

The da Vinci Effect means that our parents and grandparents are usually wrong when they tell us “everything balances out in the end” or “if you’re weak in one area that just means you’re stronger in another.”

General Intelligence. The "da Vinci Effect" refers to the tendency for individuals with high scores in one area of cognitive ability to also excel in other areas. This general factor of intelligence, or "g factor," suggests that mental skills are interconnected and that strength in one area often predicts strength in others. This is the opposite of the common saying that "everything balances out in the end."

Measuring Cognitive Skills. IQ tests, Raven's Progressive Matrices, and other cognitive assessments provide structured ways to measure general intelligence. These tests often reveal a positive correlation between verbal and visual-spatial skills, indicating that individuals who perform well on one type of test are likely to perform well on others. This da Vinci Effect is not limited to mental skills, but also applies to physical strength and other areas of life.

Cross-National Consistency. The da Vinci Effect extends across nations, with countries that score high on math tests also tending to score high on verbal and IQ tests. This suggests that a nation's overall cognitive ability is a robust predictor of its performance in various domains. The da Vinci Effect comes up in areas of life other than discussions of mental skill.

3. The Flynn Effect Shows National IQ Can Rise

As you read the book, every so often you may start thinking, “But I know someone who does great on standardized tests who’s done terribly in life, so how can IQ really matter that much for a country?” Remember: that puzzle is what this book is all about.

Rising IQ Scores. The Flynn Effect refers to the observed increase in average IQ scores over time in many countries. This phenomenon demonstrates that national IQ is not fixed and can be influenced by environmental factors, such as nutrition, health, and education. The Flynn Effect offers hope that targeted interventions can raise cognitive skills in nations with lower average scores.

Environmental Influences. Factors such as improved nutrition, reduced exposure to lead, and better access to education have been linked to the Flynn Effect. These findings suggest that public health and education policies can play a significant role in boosting national IQ. The Flynn Effect proves that big IQ gains are possible, it strongly suggests that at least some of the IQ gains are in fluid reasoning skills that probably matter for a modern economy, and it offers the hope that nations with the lowest average scores can raise their scores through practical policy reforms.

The Role of Abstraction. Philosopher James Flynn argues that the rise in IQ scores reflects a shift towards more abstract thinking in modern society. As life becomes more complex and information-rich, the ability to analyze and use abstract concepts becomes increasingly valuable. This suggests that education systems should prioritize the development of abstract reasoning skills.

4. Patient Nations Accumulate Wealth

Discount[ing] later enjoyments in comparison with earlier ones . . . arises merely from the failure of the imagination.

Patience and Savings. Individuals with higher IQ scores tend to be more patient, meaning they are willing to delay gratification and save for the future. This patience translates into higher national savings rates, which in turn lead to greater investment in capital goods and infrastructure. More savings mean more machines, more computers, more technology to work with, which helps make everyone in the nation more productive.

The Ramsey Growth Model. The Ramsey growth model highlights the importance of savings and investment in driving economic growth. Nations with higher savings rates accumulate more capital, leading to increased productivity and higher incomes. This model suggests that fostering patience and long-term thinking can be a key ingredient for national prosperity.

Global Capital Flows. In a globalized world, patient nations tend to accumulate foreign assets, becoming lenders to less patient nations. This can lead to a situation where the most patient countries own a disproportionate share of global wealth, while less patient countries become indebted and dependent. The frugal inherited the Earth, and now they’re going to enjoy it.

5. Smarter Groups Cooperate More Effectively

The ability to recognize the other player from past interactions, and to remember the relevant features of those interactions, is necessary to sustain cooperation.

The Prisoner's Dilemma. The prisoner's dilemma illustrates the challenge of cooperation, where individual self-interest can lead to suboptimal outcomes for the group. However, in repeated interactions, cooperation can emerge as a rational strategy. High-scoring groups tend to be more cooperative. And cooperation is a key ingredient for building higher-quality governments and more productive businesses.

The Three P's of Cooperation. Political scientist Robert Axelrod identified three key factors that promote cooperation in repeated prisoner's dilemma settings: patience, pleasantness, and perceptiveness. Individuals with higher IQ scores tend to exhibit these traits, making them more likely to cooperate and build trust.

Experimental Evidence. Studies have shown that individuals with higher IQ scores are more likely to be generous, trustworthy, and cooperative in experimental settings. These findings suggest that cognitive skills play a role in fostering social cohesion and promoting collective action. On average, over the course of the entire experiment, higher-IQ pairs were five times more cooperative than higher-IQ individuals.

6. High IQ Fosters Better Governance

Men must use their own intelligence in imposing order on chaos, intelligence not in the scientific problem-solving but in the more difficult sense of finding and maintaining agreement among themselves.

Coasian Bargaining. The Coase theorem suggests that efficient outcomes can be achieved through bargaining, regardless of initial property rights. In politics, this implies that legislative majorities and minorities can negotiate win-win solutions if they are skilled at bargaining. High-scoring groups are more likely to support market-oriented policies, a key to national prosperity.

Government Trustworthiness. Governments that are patient and committed to long-term stability are more likely to earn the trust of their citizens. This trust fosters investment, innovation, and economic growth. The ability to make credible commitments is a key ingredient for good governance.

Corruption and Property Rights. Nations with higher average IQ scores tend to have lower levels of corruption and stronger protection of property rights. This suggests that cognitive skills play a role in building effective and transparent institutions. In nations with higher average test scores, the government is more likely to let people and businesses find their Coasian bargains peacefully.

7. Informed Voters Improve Political Outcomes

An irrational voter does not hurt only himself. He also hurts everyone who is, as a result of his irrationality, more likely to live under misguided policies.

The Importance of Information. Informed voters are better equipped to hold politicians accountable and make sound policy decisions. Higher levels of education and cognitive skills are associated with greater political knowledge and a more nuanced understanding of complex issues. People who do well on standardized tests also tend to be better at remembering information, and informed voters are an important ingredient for good government.

The Rational Voter. Economist Bryan Caplan argues that voters often lack the incentive to become fully informed, leading to irrational policy choices. However, he also finds that individuals with higher IQ scores are more likely to think like economists and support market-oriented policies.

The Role of Numeracy. Studies have shown that individuals with strong numeracy skills are better able to interpret data and make informed decisions about complex issues, such as gun control. However, numeracy can also exacerbate partisan divisions, as individuals may selectively interpret data to support their pre-existing beliefs.

8. O-Ring Teams Maximize Productivity

The more they overthink the plumbing, the easier it is to stop up the drain.

Fragile Production Processes. The O-ring theory suggests that some production processes are highly sensitive to errors, with a single mistake capable of destroying the value of the entire product. In these settings, it is crucial to assemble teams of highly skilled and reliable workers. With these “weakest link” technologies, one misstep can destroy the product’s value, so getting high-quality workers together is crucial.

Sorting by Skill. In an O-ring economy, businesses will naturally sort workers by skill, placing the most talented individuals on the most critical tasks. This leads to a concentration of high-skilled workers in certain firms and industries, while lower-skilled workers are relegated to less demanding roles.

Peer Effects. The productivity of individual workers can be influenced by their peers. Being surrounded by high-performing colleagues can motivate workers to improve their own performance, while being surrounded by low-performing colleagues can have the opposite effect.

9. Immigration Benefits from Skill Complementarity

Genes do not eliminate the need for hard work. They clarify it. They tell us what to work hard on.

The O-Ring and Foolproof Sectors. A model that combines O-ring and "Foolproof" sectors helps explain the complex effects of immigration. Foolproof sectors are those where less-skilled workers can perform almost as well as more-skilled workers.

Immigration and Wages. In this model, low-skilled immigration primarily affects the Foolproof sector, with little impact on the wages of high-skilled workers in the O-ring sector. This is consistent with empirical evidence suggesting that immigration has a limited effect on the wages of native-born workers.

The Benefits of Migration. The O-ring-Foolproof model also explains why immigrants often experience a significant increase in earnings when they move from low-productivity to high-productivity countries. This is because they gain access to better technology, infrastructure, and institutions.

10. The Hive Mind Creates National Success

The area which I am about to enter is one that excites a great deal of emotional feeling; nevertheless it is worth examining.

Interconnected Factors. National success is not solely determined by individual intelligence or isolated factors. Instead, it is the result of a complex interplay between cognitive skills, patience, cooperation, good governance, and informed decision-making.

The Importance of Context. The benefits of high IQ are amplified by a supportive social and political environment. Nations that foster trust, innovation, and long-term thinking are more likely to harness the full potential of their citizens' cognitive abilities.

A Call to Action. Raising national average IQ and fostering a culture of cooperation and informed decision-making should be a top priority for policymakers. By investing in education, public health, and institutional reforms, nations can create a virtuous cycle of cognitive development and economic prosperity.

Last updated: April 10, 2025