How Britain Ends

1. The United Kingdom is ending, driven by the rise of English nationalism.

The central argument of this book is that while the United Kingdom can survive Irish, Scottish and Welsh nationalisms it cannot survive English nationalism.

A peculiar union. The UK, composed of four nations (England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland), is inherently lopsided, with England being significantly larger and more powerful. While other nationalisms have challenged the union, the emergence and growth of English nationalism in the 21st century pose an existential threat. This is a relatively new phenomenon, often overlooked or dismissed, but its political force is undeniable.

Traditional glue dissolving. Historically, the UK was held together by shared Protestantism, empire, and war. These unifying elements are less relevant today, leaving a vacuum where a coherent "Britishness" once existed. Without these bonds, the underlying national differences, particularly England's dominance and its evolving self-perception, are pulling the union apart.

A neglected force. English nationalism is often seen by the English as something that afflicts others, a form of exceptionalism that claims the English are not prone to such "dubious claims." However, this sentiment is increasingly difficult to sustain as English identity becomes more distinct and politically charged, demanding recognition and a voice within the union.

2. Confusion between English and British identity fuels division and resentment.

For increasing numbers of English people the haze about nation or country appears to be lifting, the idea of English exceptionalism is increasingly difficult to sustain, and Edgerton’s ‘dubious claims’ of nationalism turn out to be a highly significant and growing political force in England in the twenty-first century.

Say 'British', mean 'English'. Many English people, living in the dominant part of the union, often conflate Englishness with Britishness, assuming their identity defines the whole. This elision is less common among Scots, Welsh, and Northern Irish people, who are more accustomed to navigating multiple layers of identity (e.g., Scottish and British). This difference in perception creates friction.

The 'othering' effect. This unconscious conflation leads to the "othering" of non-English identities within the UK. When public figures or institutions speak of "we" or "us" while implicitly meaning England, it alienates those in other nations, making them feel separate and less important. This is evident in political rhetoric, media coverage, and even cultural references.

Rising English self-awareness. Census data and surveys show a growing number of people in England identifying primarily as English rather than British, particularly outside of London. This rising self-awareness is linked to discontent with the status quo and a feeling that English interests are not adequately represented within the current UK structure.

3. Brexit is a symptom, not the cause, of the UK's deep-seated malaise.

English nationalism was the principal cause of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union.

A catalyst and consequence. Brexit was not the root problem but a manifestation of underlying nationalistic tensions and discontent within the UK, particularly in England. The Leave vote was heavily driven by English voters, many of whom felt a desire to "Take Back Control" from a perceived distant and undemocratic European Union.

Exacerbating existing cracks. While Brexit was caused by these tensions, it has also significantly worsened them. The fact that England and Wales voted Leave, while Scotland and Northern Ireland voted Remain, highlighted the divergent political wills of the constituent nations. This has intensified calls for independence in Scotland and raised questions about the future of Northern Ireland.

Wrong answer to the right question. The Brexit vote, framed as achieving "independence" from Brussels, was arguably the wrong solution to the right question: does Britishness mean anything anymore? It failed to address the core issues of democratic deficit and identity within the UK, instead creating new divisions and undermining the union it claimed to represent.

4. Devolution exposed a significant "democratic deficit" within England itself.

To state this extraordinary change more clearly, these results show that by 2014 as few as one in five English voters believed that the way they were being governed was acceptable to them.

Unintended consequences. The establishment of devolved parliaments and assemblies in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, while addressing democratic deficits in those nations, inadvertently highlighted the lack of a dedicated English political voice. This created a sense of unfairness among some English voters, particularly regarding issues like the Barnett Formula and the ability of non-English MPs to vote on English-only laws.

The rise of English discontent. Support for the constitutional status quo in England plummeted after devolution, indicating a widespread feeling that England's interests were not being adequately represented by the Westminster parliament, which effectively serves as England's legislature. This discontent provided fertile ground for English nationalist sentiment.

UKIP's voice. The rise of UKIP, described by some as an English nationalist party, gave voice to this feeling of democratic deficit. Despite gaining millions of votes, the UK's First Past the Post electoral system denied them significant parliamentary representation, further fueling the perception that "the system" was rigged against them and their concerns were ignored by the "establishment elite."

5. London's overwhelming dominance "others" other nations and English regions.

London has become so powerful that by itself it could easily rank as our fifth nation within the UK alongside Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the rest of England.

A city-state within a state. London's immense population, economic power (contributing a third of UK GDP), and concentration of political, media, and cultural institutions make it a dominant force. This creates a perception, particularly outside the M25, that decisions are made by a remote "metropolitan elite" disconnected from the lives of ordinary people in other parts of the UK.

Internal English divisions. This dominance also creates significant divisions within England itself. There is resentment in northern and other non-metropolitan areas about under-investment in infrastructure and a feeling of being left behind compared to the booming capital. The pattern of Marks & Spencer store closures in Leave-voting towns versus their survival in Remain-voting cities illustrates this divide.

Differential benefits. Economic data shows that London and the devolved nations receive higher levels of public spending per person than England outside of London. This disparity, while complex in its origins (e.g., Barnett Formula), fuels resentment among those in less-favoured English regions who feel they are subsidizing other parts of the UK and the prosperous capital.

6. "British" institutions are often devolved and perceived differently across the UK.

Beyond Westminster, other British institutions, usually headquartered in London, also often confuse Englishness and Britishness.

British in name only. Many institutions commonly referred to as "British" are, in practice, administered differently in the devolved nations. There is no single "British education system," "British justice system," or even a unified "British NHS" in terms of day-to-day management and policy. This devolution, while practical, highlights the lack of a truly uniform British experience.

Different priorities and policies. The COVID-19 pandemic starkly illustrated these differences, with Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland adopting different lockdown rules, messaging, and timetables than the UK government in London. This demonstrated that even in a shared crisis, national and regional priorities diverged, and the idea of a single, unified British response was often a fiction.

Perception of bias. Institutions like the BBC, while aiming to be a national broadcaster, are often perceived as London-centric, particularly in Scotland. News coverage focusing on English issues (health, education) as if they were national, or graphics omitting Scotland, reinforce the feeling of being "othered" and disconnected from the "national" narrative.

7. The UK's "unwritten constitution" is a source of vagueness, uncertainty, and weakness.

Every truly federal system, like Germany or the USA, has a written constitution to separate powers and explain how conflicts between states and the central government may be resolved.

A historical anomaly. Unlike most modern democracies, the UK lacks a single, codified written constitution. Its governance relies on a complex mix of statutes, common law, conventions, and historical precedents, leading to "utmost vagueness and uncertainty" about the limits of power and how disputes between different branches of government or nations are resolved.

The "Good Chap" theory failing. This system traditionally relied on a "Good Chap" theory, where those in power instinctively understood and respected unwritten conventions and exercised restraint. However, with declining trust in politicians and the rise of leaders perceived as disregarding these conventions, this reliance on good faith is increasingly precarious and exposes the system's potential weaknesses.

Constitutional conflicts. Recent events, such as the Supreme Court ruling on the prorogation of Parliament, highlight the problems arising from this vagueness. Different courts reached different conclusions, and the ultimate arbiter's role was debated. This lack of clarity makes managing the complex relationships within a federalizing UK state inherently difficult and prone to crisis.

8. Declining trust in politicians and institutions is a major threat to UK governance.

For the first time since the 1970s, that is, before membership of the Common Market and a time when the United Kingdom was seen as ‘the sick man of Europe’, by 2019 a clear majority of UK citizens were dissatisfied with British democracy.

A democratic recession. Surveys show a significant decline in public trust in politicians and government institutions in the UK, reaching lows comparable to countries with authoritarian regimes. This widespread dissatisfaction with democracy itself creates fertile ground for anti-establishment rhetoric and makes it harder for governments to command legitimacy.

Causes of distrust. This decline is linked to a series of events:

• The Iraq War and perceived dishonesty about intelligence.
• The 2008 financial crisis and subsequent austerity policies.
• The MPs' expenses scandal.
• The gridlock and perceived incompetence surrounding Brexit.
• The handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Erosion of authority. When citizens lose faith in the integrity and competence of their leaders and governing bodies, it undermines the very foundations of the political system. This makes it harder to implement policies, manage crises, and maintain national cohesion, particularly in a union already strained by competing nationalisms.

9. Scotland and Northern Ireland are increasingly looking away from Westminster.

If Conservatives and supposed unionists in England are so enthusiastic about the radical change called Brexit that they have become at best lukewarm about the union, then the end of Britain is only a matter of time.

Brexit's impact on the periphery. Brexit, imposed against the democratic will of Scotland and Northern Ireland, has significantly weakened attachment to the UK in these nations. The promise that remaining in the UK guaranteed EU membership was broken, fueling resentment and a sense of democratic deficit.

Scotland's renewed push. In Scotland, Brexit has revitalized the independence movement. The Scottish government sees the Irish Republic, a small independent nation thriving within the EU, as a potential model. There is a growing determination to rejoin the EU as an independent country, viewing Westminster as increasingly out of touch and prioritizing English interests over Scottish ones.

Northern Ireland's shifting sands. Brexit has destabilized Northern Ireland by creating a customs border in the Irish Sea, effectively treating it differently from the rest of the UK. This has angered unionists and led to increased discussion about Irish unity, particularly among younger generations. The Irish Republic's economic success and the decline of the Catholic Church's influence make unity a more palatable prospect for some.

10. The UK needs a political reformation: Recognize, Repair, and Reform its structures.

If the UK is to remain a United Kingdom its system of governance needs to be reformed. If the system of governance is not reformed, the imagined community we call Britain is coming to an end.

A necessary reformation. The current confluence of crises – economic, health, political, and a crisis of trust – presents an opportunity for fundamental change. Just as past crises led to significant reforms (e.g., post-WWII welfare state, Thatcherite reforms), the UK must now undergo a political reformation to address its deep-seated problems.

Three imperatives. This reformation requires a three-pronged approach:

• Recognize: Acknowledge the reality of competing nationalisms, the failure of English exceptionalism, the democratic deficit, and the federalization by stealth.
• Repair: Fix admired but struggling institutions like the NHS and empower weakened local government, particularly in England.
• Reform: Fundamentally change the political system, starting with the unfair Westminster voting system and addressing the vagueness of the constitution.

Avoiding complacency. The traditional British tendency to "muddle through" and rely on unwritten conventions is no longer sufficient. The scale of the challenges and the level of public distrust demand deliberate, structural changes to the way the UK is governed.

11. Federalism or "Home Rule for All Nations" offers a potential path forward.

Part of the argument of what follows is that the United Kingdom has for years been creeping by stealth towards an undeclared federal system.

Building on existing structures. The UK already operates with a degree of federalism through devolution and the distinct administration of many public services in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. This existing structure provides a template for a more formal federal system that could empower nations and regions.

Home Rule for All. A potential solution is to formalize and expand this federalism, granting more powers to the devolved nations and creating new, empowered regional or national structures for England (e.g., an English parliament or stronger regional assemblies). This "Home Rule for All Nations" approach, debated historically, could address the democratic deficit felt across the UK.

Codifying the rules. A formal federal system would necessitate a written, codified constitution. This would clearly define the powers and responsibilities of the central government, the nations, and the regions, providing a framework for resolving disputes and increasing transparency and accountability, moving beyond the unreliable "Good Chap" theory.

12. Interdependence, not isolation, is the reality of the 21st century.

The biggest problems we face – disease and pandemics, economic meltdown, trade disruption, climate change, international crime and terrorism – are all global in scale. National solutions are useless without international cooperation.

Global challenges. The major threats and opportunities of the 21st century are transnational. Pandemics, climate change, economic stability, and security require international cooperation, not isolation. The idea of an "island race" standing alone is a nostalgic fantasy ill-suited to the modern world.

Finding a new role. With the decline of empire and the departure from the EU, the UK needs to define a new role for itself on the global stage. This role must embrace interdependence and collaboration, leveraging its strengths in science, culture, and diplomacy within international frameworks.

Cooperation is key. Whether the UK remains a union or separates into independent nations, cooperation between the countries of the British Isles will remain essential. Managing shared borders, trade, security, and environmental issues will require pragmatic relationships based on mutual interest, regardless of constitutional arrangements.

Last updated: May 22, 2025