How Democracies Die

1. Democracy's death is often gradual and barely noticeable

The electoral road to breakdown is dangerously deceptive. With a classic coup d'état, as in Pinochet's Chile, the death of a democracy is immediate and evident to all. The presidential palace burns. The president is killed, imprisoned, or shipped off into exile. The constitution is suspended or scrapped.

Subtle erosion. Unlike violent coups, modern democratic decline often occurs through a series of small steps that may seem legal or even beneficial. Elected leaders gradually consolidate power by:

• Capturing referee institutions like courts and election boards
• Sidelining or co-opting opposition figures and media
• Changing rules to tilt the playing field in their favor

This process can be hard to detect, as there is no single moment when democracy clearly "dies." Citizens may not realize what is happening until it's too late. By the time alarm bells ring, key institutions and norms have already been undermined.

2. Authoritarian leaders often rise through democratic means

Blatant dictatorship—in the form of fascism, communism, or military rule—has disappeared across much of the world. Military coups and other violent seizures of power are rare. Most countries hold regular elections. Democracies still die, but by different means.

Wolves in sheep's clothing. Modern authoritarians often come to power through elections and democratic institutions, rather than military coups. They present themselves as outsiders who will fix a broken system, exploiting economic crises, security threats, and public disillusionment with the establishment. Once elected, they gradually consolidate control by:

• Attacking the legitimacy of opposition and media
• Changing laws and institutions to entrench their power
• Using referendums and legal maneuvers to extend term limits
• Maintaining a democratic facade while hollowing out democratic substance

Examples include Hugo Chávez in Venezuela, Viktor Orbán in Hungary, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey. Their rise shows how authoritarianism can emerge from within democratic systems.

3. Political parties play a crucial role as democracy's gatekeepers

For most of American history, political parties prioritized gatekeeping over openness. There was always some form of a smoke-filled room.

Filtering extremists. Political parties have historically played a vital role in preserving democracy by preventing authoritarian or extremist figures from gaining power. They do this through:

• Candidate selection processes that favor experienced, mainstream politicians
• Refusing to endorse or ally with extremist figures
• Uniting across party lines to defeat anti-democratic candidates

However, changes in the U.S. party system have weakened this gatekeeping function:

• Shift to binding primary elections in the 1970s
• Rise of outside funding sources like Super PACs
• Influence of partisan media and social media
• Hollowing out of party organizations

This has made it easier for outsiders and extremists to gain nominations, as seen in Donald Trump's 2016 Republican primary victory.

4. Mutual toleration and institutional forbearance are democracy's guardrails

Two norms stand out as fundamental to a functioning democracy: mutual toleration and institutional forbearance.

Unwritten rules matter. While constitutions provide the basic framework for democracy, unwritten norms are essential for making the system work. Two key norms are:

1. Mutual toleration: Accepting opposition as legitimate rivals, not existential threats
2. Institutional forbearance: Exercising restraint in using institutional powers

These norms act as "soft guardrails" that prevent political competition from descending into a no-holds-barred conflict. When they break down, politicians are more likely to:

• Abuse institutional powers for partisan gain
• View opponents as enemies to be destroyed
• Justify anti-democratic actions as necessary to save the country

The erosion of these norms in recent decades has made American democracy more vulnerable to breakdown.

5. America's democratic norms have eroded over recent decades

The unraveling of democratic norms started in the 1980s and 1990s and accelerated in the 2000s. By the time Barack Obama became president, many Republicans, in particular, questioned the legitimacy of their Democratic rivals and had abandoned forbearance for a strategy of winning by any means necessary.

Escalating norm violations. Since the 1980s, both parties—but especially Republicans—have increasingly broken longstanding democratic norms:

• Portraying opponents as existential threats or un-American
• Using constitutional hardball tactics like government shutdowns
• Obstructing presidential appointments, including Supreme Court nominees
• Attempting to delegitimize election results

Key moments in this erosion include:

• Newt Gingrich's confrontational tactics as House Speaker in the 1990s
• The impeachment of Bill Clinton in 1998
• The debt ceiling crisis of 2011
• Senate Republicans' blockade of Merrick Garland's Supreme Court nomination in 2016

This pattern of escalating norm violations has weakened the guardrails that once constrained anti-democratic behavior.

6. Extreme partisan polarization threatens democratic stability

Polarization can destroy democratic norms. When socioeconomic, racial, or religious differences give rise to extreme partisanship, in which societies sort themselves into political camps whose worldviews are not just different but mutually exclusive, toleration becomes harder to sustain.

Toxic divisions. Extreme polarization undermines democracy by:

• Making compromise and cooperation nearly impossible
• Encouraging politicians to break norms to defeat the "enemy"
• Causing citizens to view the opposition as an existential threat

America's current polarization is driven by factors including:

• Racial and religious realignment of the parties
• Growing economic inequality
• Geographic sorting of like-minded voters
• Rise of partisan media ecosystems

This polarization goes beyond policy disagreements to fundamental worldviews, making it especially dangerous. When parties view each other as existential threats, they are more likely to justify anti-democratic actions as necessary for survival.

7. Saving democracy requires rebuilding norms and addressing root causes

Saving democracy requires more than just fright or outrage. We must be humble and bold. We must learn from other countries to see the warning signs—and recognize the false alarms. We must be aware of the fateful missteps that have wrecked other democracies.

Multifaceted approach. Preserving American democracy will require efforts on multiple fronts:

1. Rebuilding democratic norms:

   • Political leaders must recommit to mutual toleration and forbearance
   • Broad coalitions spanning ideological divides should defend democratic institutions

2. Reforming political institutions:

   • Strengthen gatekeeping mechanisms within parties
   • Reduce the impact of money in politics
   • Address partisan gerrymandering and voter suppression

3. Addressing root causes of polarization:

   • Tackle economic inequality and regional disparities
   • Bridge racial and cultural divides
   • Reform media ecosystems to reduce partisan bubbles

4. Learning from other countries:

   • Study how other democracies have resisted authoritarianism
   • Recognize early warning signs of democratic erosion

Ultimately, preserving democracy requires citizens to actively defend democratic norms and institutions, even when doing so goes against short-term partisan interests.

Last updated: August 11, 2024