On Rumors

1. Rumors spread through social cascades and group polarization

Cascades occur because each of us tends to rely on what other people think and do. If most of the people we know believe a rumor, we tend to believe it too.

Informational cascades drive rumor spread. People often lack direct knowledge about complex issues, so they rely on others' beliefs. This creates a domino effect where a rumor gains credibility as more people accept it.

Group polarization further entrenches beliefs. When like-minded people discuss a rumor:

• They hear more arguments supporting their existing views
• Confidence in shared beliefs increases
• Desire for social approval pushes views to extremes

These mechanisms explain why different groups can hold vastly different beliefs about the same issues, creating parallel realities in politics and society.

2. People accept rumors based on prior beliefs and emotional resonance

Many of our beliefs spring from our hopes, our goals, and our desires. In this sense, our beliefs are motivated.

Cognitive biases shape rumor acceptance. People are more likely to believe rumors that:

• Confirm existing beliefs (confirmation bias)
• Reduce cognitive dissonance
• Align with hopes or fears

Emotional factors play a crucial role. Rumors that trigger strong emotions like fear, anger, or disgust spread more easily. This explains why sensational or outrageous rumors often gain traction, even when implausible.

People have different "thresholds" for accepting rumors based on their prior knowledge and emotional investment in the subject. This creates tipping points where rumors can rapidly spread through social networks as more people cross their belief thresholds.

3. The Internet amplifies rumor propagation and makes corrections challenging

On the Internet, a process of this kind occurs every day, as those who believe rumors end up believing them all the more strongly even after hearing a balanced discussion of whether they are true.

Digital amplification accelerates rumor spread. The Internet enables:

• Instant global transmission of information
• Anonymous or pseudonymous sharing
• Echo chambers and filter bubbles
• Viral sharing through social networks

While this allows for rapid dissemination of truth, it also facilitates the spread of misinformation. Corrections face obstacles online:

• False information spreads faster than corrections
• Original sources may be untraceable
• Corrections don't reach all who saw the original rumor
• Some platforms lack effective fact-checking mechanisms

The persistence of online information means that even debunked rumors can continue to circulate and influence beliefs long after being disproven.

4. Biased assimilation reinforces existing beliefs, even in face of contradictory evidence

When people process information, they are affected by their emotions and their prejudices.

Selective information processing leads people to:

• Readily accept information confirming their views
• Scrutinize or dismiss contradictory information
• Interpret ambiguous information in ways that support existing beliefs

This creates a feedback loop where exposure to new information often strengthens rather than challenges preexisting views. Motivated reasoning further compounds this effect, as people unconsciously seek ways to justify beliefs that are important to their identity or worldview.

In polarized environments, this can lead to increasingly divergent interpretations of the same events or data, making consensus on contentious issues difficult to achieve.

5. Corrections can backfire, strengthening false beliefs in some cases

Corrections can therefore be self-defeating. If a company tries to fight a false rumor about its current difficulties, more people may end up believing the rumor.

The backfire effect occurs when attempts to correct misinformation inadvertently reinforce false beliefs. This happens because:

• Repeating the false claim in the correction increases its familiarity
• People with strong prior beliefs may become defensive and double down
• Corrections can draw attention to previously unknown rumors

Effective corrections require:

• Targeting the right audience (those open to new information)
• Using trusted sources
• Providing alternative explanations to fill the gap left by the debunked claim
• Avoiding repetition of the false information

Understanding these dynamics is crucial for developing effective strategies to combat misinformation in public discourse and policy debates.

6. Chilling effects on speech can be both harmful and beneficial

A society without any chilling effect imposed by social norms and by law would be a singularly ugly place. What societies need is not the absence of "chill," but an optimal level.

Balancing free speech and accountability is crucial. While protecting free expression is vital for democracy, unchecked harmful speech can have serious consequences:

• Damage to individual reputations
• Erosion of trust in institutions
• Polarization and social discord

Some degree of "chill" on false or damaging speech can be beneficial:

• Encourages fact-checking and responsible reporting
• Protects individuals from libel and defamation
• Promotes civil discourse

The challenge lies in finding the right balance that preserves open debate while discouraging malicious misinformation. This requires careful consideration of legal frameworks, platform policies, and social norms around information sharing.

7. Legal protections and cultural norms shape rumor transmission

Current constitutional law offers one possible route. The basic principles are laid down in New York Times Co. v. Sullivan, one of the Supreme Court's most important decisions.

Legal frameworks significantly impact rumor spread:

• First Amendment protections for free speech
• Libel and defamation laws
• Platform liability (e.g., Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act)

These laws shape the incentives and constraints for rumor propagation. For example, the "actual malice" standard for public figures makes it difficult to hold spreaders of false information legally accountable.

Cultural norms also play a crucial role:

• Journalistic ethics and fact-checking standards
• Social media etiquette
• Expectations of privacy and information sharing

As technology evolves, both legal systems and cultural norms must adapt to address new challenges in information dissemination and verification.

8. Privacy concerns arise from increased surveillance and information sharing

We want to be protected not only against false rumors, but also against disclosure of personal details that we reveal to family and close friends, not to the world.

The surveillance society presents new challenges:

• Ubiquitous data collection by companies and governments
• Easy sharing of personal information on social media
• Permanent digital records of past actions and statements

This creates tension between:

• The desire for privacy and control over personal information
• The benefits of information sharing and connectivity
• Public interest in transparency, especially for public figures

Balancing these competing interests requires:

• Robust data protection laws
• Ethical guidelines for information use
• Individual awareness and control over personal data

As the boundaries between public and private spheres blur, society must grapple with redefining norms around privacy and information sharing.

9. Skepticism and media literacy are crucial in the digital age

Perhaps the generation growing up with online social networks, and that generation's successors, will treat a wide range of false rumors, including negative or even vicious ones, with bemusement, a laugh, or a yawn.

Developing critical thinking skills is essential in navigating the modern information landscape:

• Questioning sources and motivations
• Understanding how algorithms and social media shape information exposure
• Recognizing emotional manipulation in content

Media literacy education should focus on:

• Evaluating credibility of sources
• Identifying bias and misinformation
• Understanding the mechanics of rumor spread

While increased skepticism is valuable, it's important to balance healthy doubt with the ability to accept well-supported information. The goal is not universal cynicism, but rather informed discernment in an age of information overload.

Last updated: August 20, 2024