Pakistan on the Brink

1. The death of Osama bin Laden marked the end of an era but not the end of Al Qaeda

Osama bin Laden was more than just an icon. His ideology of global jihad, and Al Qaeda's acts of terrorism, changed the way we all live, our security concerns, how we travel, and how we conduct politics and business; it deeply scarred relations between the Muslim world and the West.

Impact of Bin Laden's death. The killing of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan, on May 1, 2011, was a watershed moment in the war on terror. It demonstrated the United States' resolve and capabilities but also exposed the complex relationship between Pakistan and extremist groups. The operation raised questions about Pakistan's knowledge of Bin Laden's whereabouts and strained U.S.-Pakistan relations.

Persistence of Al Qaeda. Despite Bin Laden's death, Al Qaeda has adapted and expanded its global network. It has established branches in various countries, penetrated Muslim communities in the West, and spread its ideology through the internet and social media. The organization has transformed from a highly centralized structure to a more decentralized and adaptable terror network, making it more resilient to counterterrorism efforts.

2. Pakistan's complex relationship with extremist groups threatens its stability

Pakistan has a litany of problems, some of which involve the military. It refuses either to acknowledge or to end its covert support for the Afghan Taliban. It drags its feet on seeking a settlement with India. The antistate Pakistani Taliban is growing. The military refuses to handle politically the separatist insurgency that has erupted in Baluchistan province.

Double-edged strategy. Pakistan's military and intelligence services have long used extremist groups as proxies to pursue strategic objectives in Afghanistan and India. This policy has backfired, leading to the rise of domestic extremist groups like the Pakistani Taliban, which now threaten the state itself.

Consequences of extremism:

• Increased domestic terrorism and violence
• Strained relations with the United States and other allies
• Economic instability and reduced foreign investment
• Growing sectarian and ethnic tensions within Pakistan

Need for policy change. Pakistan must abandon its distinction between "good" and "bad" extremists and adopt a comprehensive approach to combat all forms of terrorism. This requires not only military action but also addressing the root causes of extremism through education, economic development, and political reforms.

3. Afghanistan's political instability and flawed elections hinder progress

The lack of fair elections, the inequitable distribution of seats among ethnic groups, the war, and the continued economic deprivation have only intensified Afghanistan's long-running and unresolved ethnic problems.

Flawed electoral process. The 2009 and 2010 elections in Afghanistan were marred by widespread fraud, low voter turnout, and security concerns. These issues undermined the legitimacy of the government and eroded public trust in the democratic process.

Ethnic divisions. The electoral system and power distribution have exacerbated ethnic tensions, particularly between Pashtuns and non-Pashtun groups. This has led to:

• Uneven development and resource allocation
• Lack of representation for minority groups
• Increased vulnerability to Taliban influence in certain areas

Governance challenges. President Hamid Karzai's administration has struggled with corruption, ineffective governance, and a lack of capacity to deliver basic services. These issues have hindered Afghanistan's progress and made it more difficult to counter the Taliban insurgency.

4. U.S. military strategy in Afghanistan faced challenges and limitations

The entire first year of the 2009 Obama surge in manpower and money would have to be spent on securing the country for the election, rather than on developing a long-term counterinsurgency and economic development strategy.

Surge limitations. The Obama administration's decision to increase troop levels in Afghanistan aimed to improve security and create conditions for political progress. However, the strategy faced several challenges:

• Focus on short-term security at the expense of long-term development
• Difficulty in building Afghan security forces capable of maintaining stability
• Limited success in reducing Taliban influence in key areas

Counterinsurgency challenges:

• Civilian casualties undermining public support
• Difficulty distinguishing between civilians and insurgents
• Persistence of Taliban safe havens in Pakistan

Transition concerns. The plan to withdraw U.S. and NATO forces by 2014 raised questions about the Afghan government's ability to maintain security and stability without significant international support.

5. Talks with the Taliban became a controversial but necessary step towards peace

Clearly the Taliban were serious about negotiating at least a reduction in the violence, if not an end to the fighting.

Evolving approach. Initially opposed by the United States, the idea of negotiating with the Taliban gained traction as the conflict dragged on. Key factors driving this shift included:

• Recognition that a military victory was unlikely
• Taliban's willingness to distance themselves from Al Qaeda
• Need for a political solution to end the conflict

Challenges to negotiations:

• Mistrust between all parties involved
• Divergent interests of regional powers, particularly Pakistan
• Resistance from non-Taliban Afghan factions
• Ongoing violence undermining confidence-building measures

Potential benefits. Successful talks could lead to:

• Reduction in violence
• Power-sharing arrangement in Afghanistan
• Withdrawal of foreign forces
• Regional stability

6. Pakistan's internal crises and regional tensions complicate its future

Pakistan poses a much more dangerous situation than even Afghanistan.

Multiple crises. Pakistan faces a range of interconnected challenges that threaten its stability:

• Economic instability and dependence on foreign aid
• Growing extremism and sectarian violence
• Ethnic separatism, particularly in Baluchistan
• Tensions between civilian government and military
• Nuclear weapons security concerns

Regional dynamics. Pakistan's relations with its neighbors, particularly India and Afghanistan, remain tense and complicated by historical conflicts and strategic interests.

Need for reform. To address these challenges, Pakistan must:

• Implement economic and governance reforms
• Address extremism through education and social programs
• Improve relations with neighboring countries
• Balance civil-military relations

7. The Arab Spring and Turkey's success offer lessons for the region

Turkey "is right at the center of everything," he said. "This will not be an axis against any other country . . . this will be an axis of democracy."

Arab Spring implications. The popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa demonstrated:

• Desire for democratic governance and economic opportunity
• Potential for peaceful political change
• Challenges of transitioning from authoritarian rule

Turkey's model. Turkey's success in combining democracy, economic growth, and moderate Islam offers valuable lessons:

• Civilian control over the military
• Economic reforms and integration with global markets
• Balancing Islamic identity with secular governance
• Regional diplomatic engagement

Relevance for Pakistan and Afghanistan. While facing different challenges, both countries can learn from:

• Turkey's economic development strategies
• Efforts to balance religious and secular influences
• Approach to civil-military relations

8. A comprehensive regional approach is crucial for stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Unless both the military and the political parties put change and reform on the agenda, Pakistan will face a loss of political control, growing anarchy and violence in the provinces and among ethnic groups, enormous economic catastrophe for tens of millions of people, natural disasters made worse by lack of government, and the ever-looming threat of militant Islam, which could in time overwhelm the security apparatus.

Regional interdependence. The fates of Afghanistan and Pakistan are closely linked, and their stability affects the entire region. A comprehensive approach must consider:

• The interests of neighboring countries, including India, Iran, and Central Asian states
• Economic cooperation and trade links
• Shared security challenges, particularly terrorism and drug trafficking

U.S. role. The United States must clarify its long-term strategy for the region, balancing:

• Counterterrorism objectives
• Support for democratic governance and economic development
• Engagement with regional powers

Priorities for stability:

• Inclusive political settlements in Afghanistan and Pakistan
• Economic development and regional integration
• Addressing extremism and its root causes
• Confidence-building measures between countries

Challenges ahead. Achieving regional stability will require overcoming:

• Historical mistrust between countries
• Competing strategic interests
• Internal political and economic challenges in each country

Last updated: October 8, 2024