Political Tribes

1. Humans are inherently tribal, forming group identities that can lead to conflict

Humans are tribal. We need to belong to groups. We crave bonds and attachments, which is why we love clubs, teams, fraternities, family. Almost no one is a hermit. Even monks and friars belong to orders. But the tribal instinct is not just an instinct to belong. It is also an instinct to exclude.

Evolutionary roots. Our tribal instincts have deep evolutionary origins. Studies show that even young children quickly form in-group preferences and out-group biases when arbitrarily assigned to groups. This tendency to categorize people into "us" versus "them" activates distinct neural pathways, with in-group members perceived as more human and relatable.

Modern manifestations. In the contemporary world, tribal identities take many forms - ethnic, religious, political, cultural. While these bonds can provide meaning and belonging, they also fuel conflict when groups feel threatened. Exclusionary impulses, dehumanization of outsiders, and intergroup violence often result from strong tribal affiliations.

Implications. Understanding the tribal nature of human psychology is crucial for addressing divisions in society. Leaders and institutions must find ways to expand the circle of moral concern beyond narrow tribal boundaries. Fostering cross-group empathy and shared identities can help overcome the darker impulses of tribalism.

2. American foreign policy often overlooks crucial tribal dynamics abroad

If we want to get our foreign policy right—if we don't want to be perpetually caught off guard, fighting unwinnable wars, and stuck having to choose between third- and fourth-best options—the United States has to come to grips with political tribalism abroad.

Cultural blind spots. American policymakers often project their own ideological frameworks onto other societies, overlooking crucial ethnic, religious, and tribal dynamics. This "group blindness" stems partly from America's distinctive history as a nation of immigrants that has forged a strong overarching national identity.

Disastrous consequences. Failure to understand local group identities has led to major U.S. foreign policy blunders:

• Misreading nationalist motivations in Vietnam
• Underestimating tribal loyalties in Afghanistan
• Ignoring sectarian divisions in Iraq

Need for nuanced approach. Effective foreign policy requires:

• In-depth understanding of local group dynamics and histories
• Awareness of market-dominant minorities and ethnic tensions
• Consideration of how U.S. actions may exacerbate group conflicts
• Strategies tailored to complex tribal and ethnic realities on the ground

3. Market-dominant minorities fuel ethnic tensions in developing countries

When a developing country with an impoverished majority has a market-dominant minority, predictable results follow. Intense ethnic resentment is almost invariable, leading frequently to confiscation of the minority's assets, looting, rioting, violence, and, all too often, ethnic cleansing.

Widespread phenomenon. Many developing countries have ethnic minorities that dominate economically:

• Chinese in Southeast Asia
• Indians in East Africa
• Lebanese in West Africa
• Whites in South Africa

Sources of resentment. The majority resents the minority's wealth and economic control, seeing them as exploitative outsiders. Cultural and social separation often exacerbates tensions.

Backlash cycle. Democratic opening and free market reforms can increase the minority's wealth, fueling more resentment. Populist leaders exploit majority grievances, leading to asset seizures, violence, and ethnic cleansing. This drives away the entrepreneurial minority, damaging the economy and perpetuating underdevelopment.

Policy implications. Policymakers must recognize how market-dominant minorities shape political dynamics. Simplistic promotion of democracy and capitalism can backfire without addressing underlying ethnic economic disparities.

4. The U.S. misunderstood Vietnam's ethnic complexities, leading to devastating defeat

We completely missed the ethnic side of the conflict. If we had actively wanted to turn the Vietnamese people against us, we could hardly have come up with a better formula.

Overlooked Chinese minority. The U.S. failed to recognize that Vietnam's capitalist class was dominated by an ethnic Chinese minority, comprising only 1% of the population but controlling up to 80% of the economy. This group was deeply resented by the Vietnamese majority.

Counterproductive policies. American intervention enriched and empowered the Chinese minority:

• U.S. aid and contracts flowed to Chinese businesses
• Chinese tycoons profited from the black market serving U.S. soldiers
• Chinese largely avoided the draft through bribery

Alienating the majority. To most Vietnamese, America appeared to be fighting to maintain the wealth and power of a resented foreign minority. This undermined claims of fighting for Vietnamese freedom and democracy.

Lessons unlearned. The U.S. failure to grasp Vietnam's ethnic dynamics foreshadowed similar mistakes in later interventions, highlighting the need to understand local group identities and tensions.

5. Failure to grasp Afghanistan's tribal structures undermined American efforts

If we're to come together as a nation, we all need to elevate ourselves. We need to find a way to talk to each other if we're to have any chance of bridging divides. We need to allow ourselves to see our tribal adversaries as fellow Americans, engaged in a common enterprise.

Pashtun dynamics overlooked. U.S. policymakers failed to understand the central importance of Pashtun tribal identity and inter-tribal rivalries. This led to key missteps:

• Empowering non-Pashtun warlords, alienating Pashtun population
• Misreading Taliban as solely ideological rather than ethnic movement
• Overlooking cross-border Pashtun ties with Pakistan

Pakistan's tribal manipulation. Pakistan exploited U.S. ignorance, channeling aid to Islamist Pashtuns to counter secular Pashtun nationalism. This fueled the rise of the Taliban.

Wasted opportunities. Greater tribal awareness could have allowed the U.S. to:

• Build broader Pashtun support against Taliban extremists
• Leverage tribal structures for governance and security
• Address cross-border Pashtun issues with Pakistan

Enduring challenge. Tribal dynamics continue to shape Afghan politics and security, highlighting the ongoing need for nuanced cultural understanding in U.S. policy.

6. Democratization can exacerbate ethnic divisions in fragile states like Iraq

In countries with long-pent-up ethnic and religious divisions, especially where national identity is weak, rapid democratization often galvanizes group hatred.

Inflaming tensions. Rapid democratization in ethnically divided societies can:

• Empower demagogues who stoke ethnic resentments
• Allow long-oppressed majorities to seek revenge on minorities
• Cause minorities to resist violently, fearing majoritarian tyranny

Iraq's sectarian spiral. U.S.-led democratization in Iraq ignited Sunni-Shia conflict:

• Shia majority gained power after centuries of Sunni dominance
• De-Baathification purged Sunnis from government and military
• Sunni resentment fueled insurgency and eventually ISIS

Alternatives needed. In fragile states, gradual liberalization and power-sharing may be preferable to rapid democratization. Institutions to protect minority rights and promote national unity should precede full electoral democracy.

Broader pattern. Similar dynamics played out in the former Yugoslavia, demonstrating how democracy can trigger ethnic conflict in deeply divided societies lacking strong national identities.

7. Inequality and cultural divides are fueling political tribalism in America

We are at an unprecedented moment in America. For the first time in U.S. history, white Americans are faced with the prospect of becoming a minority in their "own country."

Economic anxieties. Growing inequality and declining prospects for working-class whites are fueling resentment:

• Stagnant wages and job losses in manufacturing and mining
• Declining life expectancy for less-educated whites
• Perception that elites and minorities benefit at their expense

Cultural alienation. Many working-class whites feel their values and way of life are under attack:

• Rapid demographic changes in formerly homogeneous communities
• Perceived liberal bias in media, education, and popular culture
• Feeling blamed for historical injustices and current inequalities

Tribal backlash. These factors are driving a resurgence of white identity politics:

• Support for populist politicians who promise to restore past greatness
• Hostility toward immigrants and racial/religious minorities
• Rejection of "politically correct" discourse on race and gender

Parallel grievances. Other groups also feel threatened, creating a cycle of mutual suspicion and resentment across racial and class lines.

8. The "browning of America" is creating anxiety among some white Americans

We're not only in a zero-sum game. We're in a vicious circle. Is there any way out?

Demographic shift. Census projections show that by mid-century, non-Hispanic whites will become a minority in the U.S. This unprecedented change is causing anxiety among some whites about loss of status and cultural change.

Perceived threats. Many whites, especially working-class, fear:

• Economic competition from immigrants
• Loss of political influence as minorities gain voting power
• Erosion of traditional American culture and values

Backlash politics. These anxieties are manifesting in:

• Support for restrictive immigration policies
• Resistance to affirmative action and diversity initiatives
• Embrace of populist politicians who promise to maintain white majority culture

Complex reality. The actual impact of demographic change is nuanced:

• Many children of immigrants assimilate and identify as white
• Intermarriage is increasing, blurring racial categories
• Economic and cultural effects of immigration are mixed

9. Identity politics on both left and right are intensifying tribal conflicts

Every group feels attacked, pitted against other groups not just for jobs and spoils but for the right to define the nation's identity.

Left-wing identity politics. Progressive movements increasingly emphasize:

• Recognition of distinct group identities and experiences
• Intersectionality and micro-level identity categories
• Concepts like white privilege and systemic racism

Right-wing identity politics. Conservative movements are embracing:

• White identity and Western cultural superiority
• Christian nationalism
• Anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim sentiment

Tribal spiral. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle:

• Each side's identity politics provokes a counter-reaction
• Groups feel existentially threatened, hardening tribal boundaries
• Compromise becomes seen as betrayal of group interests

Cost to national unity. As groups focus on narrower identities, shared American identity weakens. This threatens social cohesion and democratic stability.

10. Overcoming political tribalism requires fostering a unifying national identity

A super-group is first of all a group. It is not universal; it does not include all humanity. It has a "We" and an "Everyone Else." But a super-group is a distinctive kind of group: one in which membership is open to individuals from all different backgrounds—ethnic, religious, racial, cultural.

America as super-group. The U.S. has historically succeeded in forging a national identity that transcends ethnic and racial divisions. This "super-group" identity allows diverse subgroups to thrive while maintaining overarching unity.

Threatened cohesion. Recent trends are undermining this unifying identity:

• Growing economic inequality
• Geographic and cultural sorting
• Intensifying partisan polarization
• Demographic changes creating majority-minority anxiety

Rebuilding shared identity. Strengthening American unity requires:

• Addressing economic inequalities that fuel resentment
• Creating opportunities for positive intergroup contact
• Emphasizing shared values and common national purpose
• Allowing expression of subgroup identities within broader American identity

Individual action. Citizens can contribute by:

• Seeking to understand those from different backgrounds
• Resisting tribal demonization of outgroups
• Participating in institutions that bring diverse Americans together
• Advocating for policies that reduce inequality and promote national cohesion

Last updated: October 16, 2024