Power and Progress

1. Technology's progress is not inherently beneficial for all

There is nothing automatic about new technologies bringing widespread prosperity.

Historical perspective: Throughout history, technological advancements have often benefited a small elite while failing to improve the lives of the majority. This pattern can be observed from ancient agricultural societies to the Industrial Revolution and modern digital technologies.

Examples of biased progress:

• Medieval agricultural innovations primarily benefited landowners and religious institutions
• Early industrial machinery in textiles displaced skilled artisans
• Modern AI and automation technologies threaten to eliminate jobs and increase inequality

The authors argue that the direction of technological progress is a choice, shaped by those in power, rather than an inevitable force for universal good. This challenges the common narrative of technology as an unstoppable, benevolent driver of progress.

2. Power dynamics shape the direction of technological advancement

Vision is power; power is vision.

Persuasion and agenda-setting: Those with social and economic power have a disproportionate influence on the direction of technological development. This influence operates through:

• The ability to set the agenda for research and development
• Control over resources and funding
• Shaping public perception and discourse around technology

Historical examples:

• Ferdinand de Lesseps and the Suez Canal project
• The rise of big finance and its influence on economic policies
• Silicon Valley's vision of digital technologies and AI

The authors emphasize that technological choices are not simply determined by scientific possibilities, but by the visions and interests of those in power. This underscores the importance of diverse voices and countervailing powers in shaping a more inclusive technological future.

3. The Industrial Revolution: A double-edged sword for workers

The factory system spread rapidly in the second half of the eighteenth century across Britain. Even though they did not rush to install panopticons, many employers organized work in line with Bentham's general approach.

Initial harm to workers: The early stages of industrialization in Britain led to:

• Longer working hours and harsher conditions for laborers
• Child labor in dangerous conditions, particularly in mines and factories
• Widespread pollution and public health crises in urban areas

Gradual improvements: Over time, countervailing forces emerged:

• Labor movements and trade unions
• Political reforms expanding voting rights
• Public health initiatives and regulations

The Industrial Revolution initially worsened conditions for many workers, but also set the stage for eventual improvements in living standards. This historical example illustrates the complex relationship between technological change and social progress.

4. Post-WWII era: A brief period of shared prosperity

Even more remarkable was the pattern of subsequent growth. Average real wages rose as fast and sometimes faster than productivity, recording an overall growth rate of almost 3 percent between 1949 and 1973.

Factors contributing to shared gains:

• Strong labor unions and collective bargaining
• Government regulations and social safety nets
• Technologies that increased worker productivity across skill levels

Global impact: This model of shared prosperity spread beyond the United States to much of Western Europe and parts of Asia, leading to:

• Rising middle-class living standards
• Reduced income inequality
• Expanded access to education and healthcare

The authors present this period as a rare example of technological progress aligned with broad-based social advancement, emphasizing the importance of institutional arrangements in shaping outcomes.

5. The digital revolution and the erosion of shared gains

Digital technologies became the graveyard of shared prosperity.

Shift in power dynamics: Starting in the 1980s, several factors contributed to a reversal of shared prosperity:

• Weakening of labor unions
• Deregulation and financialization of the economy
• Corporate focus on shareholder value and cost-cutting

Technological bias: Digital technologies were increasingly developed and deployed in ways that:

• Automated tasks previously performed by workers
• Increased demand for high-skilled labor while reducing opportunities for less-educated workers
• Enabled greater monitoring and control of workers

The authors argue that these changes were not inevitable consequences of digital technology, but rather the result of choices made by those in power, guided by a new vision of corporate success and technological progress.

6. AI's potential to exacerbate inequality and disempower workers

The AI illusion.

Limitations of current AI: Despite grand claims, many AI applications result in:

• "So-so automation" with limited productivity gains
• Displacement of workers without creating substantial new value
• Increased surveillance and control of workers

Global implications: The current trajectory of AI development threatens to:

• Widen the gap between developed and developing economies
• Create a "two-tiered society" with a small, highly skilled elite and a large, marginalized workforce
• Undermine democratic institutions through data collection and manipulation

The authors challenge the prevailing optimism about AI, arguing that its current development path risks exacerbating existing inequalities and power imbalances.

7. Redirecting technology for human benefit and shared progress

Machine usefulness.

Alternative approach: The authors propose focusing on "machine usefulness" (MU) rather than artificial intelligence (AI):

• Developing technologies that complement and enhance human capabilities
• Creating new tasks and opportunities for workers across skill levels
• Using digital tools to build platforms for collaboration and empowerment

Historical examples of MU:

• The development of the computer mouse and graphical user interfaces
• The World Wide Web as a tool for information access
• Mobile banking platforms in developing countries

Institutional changes: Redirecting technology towards shared progress requires:

• Strengthening democratic institutions and worker representation
• Developing new regulatory frameworks for digital technologies
• Investing in education and skills development to prepare workers for technological change

The authors argue that by shifting our focus from AI to MU and rebuilding institutions that support shared prosperity, we can harness the potential of digital technologies for the benefit of all.

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Last updated: August 8, 2024