Putinism

1. Russia's search for a new national identity shaped its post-Soviet trajectory

The Soviet Union collapsed in the 1990s, but the ideology on which it was based had suffered from utter exhaustion for a long time before.

Identity crisis. The fall of the Soviet Union left Russia grappling with a profound identity crisis. With communism discredited, Russia turned to nationalism and religion to fill the ideological void. This search for a new "Russian idea" drew on pre-revolutionary concepts like Orthodoxy, autocracy, and nationalism. It also revived interest in thinkers like Ivan Ilyin, who advocated for a strong authoritarian state.

Competing visions. Different factions promoted competing visions for Russia's future:

• Westernizers wanted Russia to embrace liberal democracy and integrate with the West
• Slavophiles and Eurasianists argued Russia should follow its own unique path
• Nationalists sought to restore Russia's great power status and imperial glory

This ideological struggle shaped Russia's tumultuous transition in the 1990s and early 2000s, ultimately paving the way for Putin's authoritarian system rooted in nationalism and statism.

2. Putin's rise to power marked a shift towards authoritarian rule and nationalist ideology

Putin was now the president, yet little was known about his opinions. Was he at heart a reformer, sympathizing with the liberals, or a conservative?

KGB background. Putin's background in the KGB shaped his worldview and governance style. He valued order, stability, and a strong state above all else. Initially presenting himself as a pragmatic reformer, Putin gradually consolidated power and dismantled democratic institutions.

Vertical power. Putin established a system of "vertical power" with decision-making concentrated at the top. Key features included:

• Centralization of authority in the presidency
• Restrictions on media freedom and civil society
• Co-optation or suppression of opposition forces
• Cultivation of a patriotic ideology centered on Russian greatness

Putin's popularity rested on economic growth fueled by high oil prices and his image as a strong leader restoring Russia's global standing after the chaotic 1990s. His authoritarian system, dubbed "managed democracy," provided a veneer of democratic legitimacy while ensuring regime stability.

3. The Orthodox Church regained prominence as a pillar of Russian identity and state power

The Orthodox Church plays a far larger role now than in the past, but it is not clear whether it will be able to maintain this position for long.

Resurgence. After decades of Soviet repression, the Orthodox Church experienced a dramatic revival under Putin. It reasserted its role as a guardian of Russian national identity and traditional values. The church provided ideological legitimacy to the regime, promoting concepts of Russia's unique spiritual mission.

Church-state symbiosis. The relationship between church and state became increasingly intertwined:

• State funding for church construction and restoration
• Orthodox teachings introduced in public schools
• Church leaders backing government policies
• Patriarch Kirill portraying Putin as divinely appointed

However, this close alignment with the state has come at a cost to the church's moral authority. Many Russians remain skeptical of organized religion, viewing the church as a corrupt institution serving elite interests rather than spiritual needs.

4. Russia's economic reliance on oil and gas exports fueled its resurgence but created vulnerabilities

If instead of Gorbachev and Yeltsin (or another member of the reform party), Yegor Ligachev, once Gorbachev's main rival, had come to power, he would have benefited from this turn for the better.

Resource boom. Russia's economic recovery in the 2000s was largely driven by rising global oil and gas prices. This windfall allowed Putin to:

• Pay off foreign debts
• Boost government spending
• Raise living standards
• Finance military modernization

Dutch disease. However, over-reliance on energy exports created long-term structural weaknesses:

• Lack of economic diversification
• Vulnerability to price fluctuations
• Corruption and rent-seeking behavior
• Stunted development of other industries

The 2014 oil price crash and Western sanctions exposed these vulnerabilities, leading to economic stagnation and highlighting the need for diversification and reform. Russia's petrostate model remains a source of both strength and fragility.

5. Eurasianism and geopolitics emerged as influential ideologies in post-Soviet Russian foreign policy

Neo-Eurasianism, an important tenet of the new Russian doctrine, is quite different in character. Its origins can be traced back a long time, but its updated version—namely, neo-Eurasianism—is quite different in character.

Geopolitical thinking. Eurasianism posits that Russia is a unique civilization distinct from both Europe and Asia. This ideology, popularized by thinkers like Alexander Dugin, argues that Russia should dominate the Eurasian landmass to counter Western (particularly American) global hegemony.

Key concepts of neo-Eurasianism include:

• Russia as a land-based power opposed to sea-based Anglo-American power
• The need for a multipolar world order
• Skepticism towards liberal democracy and globalization
• Emphasis on traditional values and authoritarian governance

While not official policy, Eurasianist ideas have influenced Russian foreign policy, particularly the push for Eurasian integration through bodies like the Eurasian Economic Union. This worldview has shaped Russia's self-perception as a great power with a sphere of privileged interests in its near abroad.

6. Demographic decline and an aging population pose significant challenges for Russia's future

According to Russian statistics, it will decline only to about 130 million. There are many estimates in between. The more optimist projections are based on a number of assumptions such as substantial immigration at the rate of 400,000 or more a year and improved health services (which will ensure people live longer).

Population crisis. Russia faces a demographic crisis characterized by low birth rates, high mortality (especially among working-age men), and an aging population. This trend threatens economic growth, military manpower, and Russia's ability to maintain control over its vast territory.

Factors contributing to the demographic decline:

• Legacy of 1990s economic collapse
• High rates of alcoholism and poor health outcomes
• Emigration of educated youth
• Low fertility rates

The government has implemented pro-natalist policies and encouraged immigration, particularly from former Soviet republics. However, these measures have had limited success in reversing the overall trend. The demographic challenge undermines Russia's great power ambitions and may force difficult choices about resource allocation and geopolitical priorities in the coming decades.

7. Russia's relations with the West deteriorated as it sought to reassert its great power status

Putin had given due warning. Why did the Europeans not invest more in the Russian economy? He could have blamed the Chinese even more when they took a hard look at the Russian economy and decided not to invest, but this he could not do.

Antagonism grows. Initially seeking partnership with the West, Russia grew increasingly disillusioned and antagonistic. Key grievances included:

• NATO expansion into Eastern Europe
• Western criticism of Russia's democratic backsliding
• Perceived Western support for "color revolutions" in post-Soviet states
• Disagreements over interventions in Yugoslavia, Iraq, and Libya

Assertive foreign policy. Putin pursued an increasingly assertive foreign policy aimed at:

• Restoring Russia's great power status
• Countering Western influence in Russia's "near abroad"
• Challenging the U.S.-led liberal international order

This led to growing tensions, culminating in the 2014 Ukraine crisis and a new era of confrontation with the West. Russia's actions in Ukraine, Syria, and elsewhere signaled its willingness to use military force to defend its interests and challenge Western dominance.

8. The annexation of Crimea signaled Russia's willingness to use force to protect its interests

Putin provided the minimum of stability that was needed, but this alone would not have been sufficient. It came not as the result of a spiritual awakening or because Russia suddenly regained its self-confidence and sense of purpose. It came for more prosaic reasons—the growing demand from world markets for oil and gas and the steeply increasing prices paid for these raw materials.

Watershed moment. The 2014 annexation of Crimea marked a turning point in Russia's post-Soviet foreign policy. It demonstrated Russia's willingness to use military force to revise post-Cold War borders and challenge the Western-led international order.

Motivations for the Crimea operation:

• Protecting ethnic Russians and Russia's strategic interests
• Preventing NATO expansion to Ukraine
• Boosting Putin's domestic popularity
• Reasserting Russia's great power status

The annexation shattered the post-Cold War security order in Europe and led to a sharp deterioration in Russia's relations with the West. While facing international condemnation and sanctions, the move was broadly popular domestically, reinforcing Putin's nationalist credentials and consolidating his power.

9. Russia faces an uncertain future balancing imperial ambitions with domestic challenges

Russia's policy to regain some or all of the territories lost with the breakdown of the Soviet Union is acting as a booster of morale and has added to the popularity of its government. But it comes at a price.

Conflicting priorities. Russia's leadership faces a dilemma between pursuing an assertive foreign policy to restore great power status and addressing pressing domestic challenges. The costs of imperial ambitions include:

• Economic sanctions and international isolation
• Increased military spending at the expense of social programs
• Brain drain and capital flight

Structural weaknesses. Russia's long-term prospects are constrained by:

• Overreliance on natural resource exports
• Demographic decline and brain drain
• Weak institutions and endemic corruption
• Technological backwardness in key sectors

The regime's legitimacy increasingly rests on nationalism and great power rhetoric rather than economic performance or democratic legitimacy. This creates a volatile situation where the government may be tempted to pursue aggressive foreign policy actions to distract from domestic problems, potentially leading to further confrontation with the West and destabilizing the international order.

Last updated: November 20, 2024