Soccernomics

1. Soccer economics: Clubs rarely profit, but never die

Soccer clubs need to know what they are. They shouldn't kid themselves that they are United Natural Foods. Rather, they are like museums: public-spirited organizations that aim to serve the community while remaining reasonably solvent.

Financial paradox. Soccer clubs are terrible businesses in traditional terms. Most operate at a loss, prioritizing on-field success over profitability. However, they possess remarkable staying power, with 97% of English clubs from 1923 still existing today. This resilience stems from their cultural significance and the willingness of investors, fans, and local governments to support them financially.

Sustainable model. Clubs function more like community institutions than profit-driven enterprises. Their value lies in their ability to generate passion, unite communities, and provide entertainment. This unique economic model allows them to weather financial storms that would sink traditional businesses. Key factors include:

• Emotional investment from fans
• Willingness of wealthy individuals to subsidize losses
• Local government support
• Ability to renegotiate debts and restart under new ownership

2. The transfer market: Inefficiencies and strategies for success

Clubs will pay more for a player because he is good-looking, or because he's just had a good World Cup—factors that have nothing to do with his ability to win matches.

Market inefficiencies. The soccer transfer market is rife with inefficiencies, often leading clubs to overpay for players based on irrelevant factors. Successful clubs exploit these inefficiencies by:

• Focusing on data-driven player evaluation
• Targeting undervalued players (e.g., those from unfashionable leagues or countries)
• Avoiding overpaying for "star" players or World Cup standouts
• Selling players at peak value

Winning strategies. Clubs that consistently outperform in the transfer market, like Olympique Lyon in the early 2000s, follow key principles:

• Use a diverse group of decision-makers to evaluate players
• Target players in their early 20s with potential for growth
• Focus on specific positions or player profiles that fit the team's style
• Be willing to sell top players at the right price to reinvest in the squad

3. Match data revolution: How numbers are changing the game

Soccer is becoming more intelligent. The analysts who now crunch "match data" at almost all big European clubs (and at many smaller ones) are just one symptom of the shift.

Data-driven decisions. The use of advanced statistics and data analysis is transforming how soccer clubs operate, from player recruitment to on-field tactics. Key areas of impact include:

• Player performance evaluation
• Opposition analysis
• Injury prevention
• Transfer market decisions

Evolving metrics. As the understanding of what drives success in soccer improves, clubs are focusing on more sophisticated metrics:

• Expected goals (xG) instead of simple shot totals
• Pass completion rates in specific areas of the pitch
• High-intensity running distances
• Player positioning and movement patterns

The challenge for clubs is not just collecting data, but interpreting it effectively and integrating insights into decision-making processes at all levels.

4. Hosting major tournaments: Economic myths vs. happiness reality

Hosting makes even politicians happy. Most of their work is frustrating. You try to get money to build, say, roads, but other politicians stop you. Even when you get the money, it's hard to build the roads, because people pop up to object. It's the same with housing or foreign policy or recycling: being a politician is an endless, tedious struggle with your enemies.

Economic reality. Contrary to popular belief and political promises, hosting major soccer tournaments like the World Cup rarely provides significant economic benefits to the host nation. Key points:

• Infrastructure investments often result in underutilized facilities post-tournament
• Increase in tourism during the event is often offset by displacement of regular visitors
• Long-term economic impact is minimal or non-existent

Happiness boost. The true value of hosting lies in the intangible benefits, particularly increased happiness among the population. Research shows:

• Host nations experience a measurable increase in self-reported happiness
• This effect can last for months or even years after the tournament
• The shared experience creates a sense of national unity and pride

Politicians and organizers should focus on these social and emotional benefits when justifying the costs of hosting, rather than making unrealistic economic promises.

5. Fan dynamics: Loyalty, suicide rates, and national identity

It turns out that hosting doesn't make you rich, but it does make you happy.

Complex loyalties. The traditional view of unwavering fan loyalty to a single club is often exaggerated. Research shows:

• Many fans support multiple teams or switch allegiances over time
• Only a small percentage of supporters attend matches regularly
• Television and global marketing have created new types of "long-distance" fans

Suicide prevention. Counterintuitively, major soccer tournaments appear to reduce suicide rates in participating countries. This effect is attributed to:

• Increased social cohesion and sense of belonging
• Shared national experience providing a sense of purpose
• Distraction from personal troubles during the event

National identity. Soccer plays a significant role in shaping and expressing national identity, particularly during international tournaments. This manifests in:

• Increased displays of national symbols and patriotism
• Temporary suspension of regional or ethnic divisions
• Collective emotional experiences (both positive and negative) tied to team performance

6. England's soccer struggles: Systemic issues and misconceptions

England wins just over two-thirds of its matches. To be precise, from 1990 to 2010 (counting from the end of the 1990 World Cup to the end of the 2010 World Cup) England played 224, won 122, tied 57, and lost 45.

Performance reality. England's national team performs reasonably well compared to most countries, but falls short of the unrealistic expectations set by media and fans. Key points:

• England consistently ranks in the top 10-15 teams globally
• The team's win percentage is around 67%, which is respectable
• Failure to win major tournaments is more a reflection of the difficulty of such achievements than a specific English problem

Systemic issues. England's underperformance relative to its potential can be attributed to several factors:

• Overreliance on a narrow socioeconomic talent pool (primarily working-class players)
• Historical resistance to modern coaching methods and tactical innovations
• Physical and mental fatigue due to the demanding Premier League schedule
• Relative isolation from European soccer networks and knowledge exchange

Misconceptions. Common explanations for England's struggles, such as too many foreign players in the Premier League, are often misguided. In fact, the internationalization of English soccer has likely improved the national team's performance over time.

7. The future of global soccer: Shifting power dynamics

Western Europe has discovered the secret of soccer. More precisely, a core group of western European countries has, namely, five of the six nations that in 1957 founded the European Economic Community, ancestor of the European Union.

European dominance. Western European nations, particularly those at the core of the European Union, have dominated international soccer in recent decades due to:

• Dense networks of competition and knowledge exchange
• Ability to attract and develop top talent from around the world
• Financial resources to invest in facilities and player development

Emerging challengers. The global balance of power in soccer is slowly shifting, with potential threats to European dominance coming from:

• Increasing professionalization and investment in other regions (e.g., China, USA)
• Improved talent development systems in South America and Africa
• Growing soccer economies in emerging markets

Future trends. The soccer landscape is likely to evolve in the coming decades, with potential developments including:

• More globally distributed talent pools
• Increased use of data and technology in all aspects of the game
• Potential for new powerhouses to emerge from non-traditional soccer nations
• Changes in tournament formats and club competition structures to reflect global interests

The key to future success for nations and clubs will be adaptability and the ability to leverage global networks of talent, knowledge, and resources.

Last updated: January 22, 2025