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Subprime Attention Crisis

Subprime Attention Crisis

by Tim Hwang 2020 176 pages
3.62
1k+ ratings
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Key Takeaways

1. The internet's economy is built on a fragile foundation of programmatic advertising

Advertising in digital media generated an estimated $273.3 billion in global revenue in 2018.

Advertising dominates the web. The meteoric rise of tech giants and content creators has been fueled by digital advertising. Companies like Google and Facebook derive over 80% of their revenue from ads. This model has made many online services free for users, but it comes with significant drawbacks.

The programmatic revolution. Programmatic advertising, which uses automated systems to buy and sell ad space in real-time, now accounts for the majority of digital ad spending. This highly efficient system allows for precise targeting and massive scale, but it also introduces new vulnerabilities.

  • Key players:
    • Demand-side platforms (DSPs): Used by advertisers to buy ad inventory
    • Supply-side platforms (SSPs): Used by publishers to sell ad space
    • Ad exchanges: Marketplaces where DSPs and SSPs interact

2. Online advertising markets mirror financial markets, inheriting their vulnerabilities

Commodification enables a fluid marketplace. The amorphous, shapeless concept of attention has been transformed into discrete, comparable pieces that can be captured, priced, and sold.

From Madison Avenue to Wall Street. The online advertising industry has deliberately modeled itself after financial markets. Many early ad tech entrepreneurs came from finance backgrounds and sought to create "stock exchanges" for ads.

Commodification of attention. Just as grain was standardized in 19th-century Chicago, allowing for futures trading, attention online has been broken down into discrete, tradable units. This process has enabled rapid growth but also introduced systemic risks.

  • Parallels to financial markets:
    • High-frequency trading
    • Complex derivatives
    • Opacity and information asymmetry
    • Potential for market manipulation

3. Opacity in programmatic advertising conceals systemic risks

The overall impact of these shenanigans is twofold. First and most obviously, prices will remain inflated, imposing costs on advertisers and publishers. Less obvious but more dangerous in the long run is that these profits eliminate any incentives to change practices within the industry.

A murky marketplace. The speed and complexity of programmatic advertising make it difficult for buyers to know where their ads appear or why they pay certain prices. This opacity allows for various forms of manipulation and fraud.

Hidden fees and conflicts of interest. Marketing agencies and ad tech companies often engage in practices that inflate prices without adding value. These include arbitrage (buying inventory at a discount and reselling at a markup) and undisclosed fees.

  • Sources of opacity:
    • Algorithmic "black boxes"
    • Private marketplaces (PMPs)
    • Lack of standardized, transparent metrics
    • Conflicts of interest among intermediaries

4. The value of online attention is eroding, creating "subprime" advertising inventory

Attention is subprime. The bottom is falling out even as prices are pushed higher and higher.

Declining effectiveness. Click-through rates for online ads have plummeted from 44% in the early days to less than 1% today. Many clicks are accidental, especially on mobile devices. Ad blocking is also on the rise, with 75% of North Americans engaging in some form of ad avoidance.

Rampant fraud. A significant portion of online ad traffic is fraudulent, generated by bots or click farms. This fake attention inflates the perceived value of ad inventory while eroding its true worth.

  • Factors contributing to subprime attention:
    • Ad blindness and banner fatigue
    • Increasing use of ad blockers
    • Click fraud and bot traffic
    • Poor viewability (ads loading off-screen)

5. Perverse incentives inflate the digital advertising bubble

Like the financial institutions that originated, packaged, and sold mortgage-backed securities in the 2000s, the operators of the programmatic advertising infrastructure have perverse incentives to keep prices high and the market hot.

The agency problem. Marketing agencies and ad tech companies profit from inflated prices and opaque practices. They have little incentive to address systemic issues that might reduce their profits.

Cash flow fuels the bubble. As traditional advertising channels decline, more money flows into digital advertising regardless of its effectiveness. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle that props up the market.

  • Perverse incentives:
    • Agencies profiting from arbitrage and hidden fees
    • Ad tech companies benefiting from market complexity
    • Platforms like Google and Facebook controlling both supply and demand
    • Short-term thinking prioritizing growth over sustainability

6. The programmatic advertising crisis threatens the entire internet ecosystem

If this system of advertising is brittle, then the internet as we know it is brittle.

A house of cards. The current internet ecosystem relies heavily on advertising revenue. A collapse in the programmatic advertising market could have far-reaching consequences beyond just marketing.

Potential fallout. A crisis could lead to widespread paywalls, reduced access to information, and the failure of many online services and content creators. It might also affect areas like scientific research and technological innovation that have been indirectly funded by ad profits.

  • Potential consequences of a crisis:
    • Sudden shift to subscription models for many services
    • Reduced investment in emerging technologies
    • Consolidation of power among a few well-resourced players
    • Widening digital divide as free services become scarce

7. Controlled demolition and regulation could pave the way for a better internet

Rather than trying to fix a broken market, we should work toward a controlled demolition that reduces its influence in the long run.

Proactive intervention. Instead of waiting for a catastrophic collapse, the author argues for a managed crisis that could lead to positive change. This involves exposing the weaknesses of programmatic advertising and creating space for alternative business models.

Regulatory approach. Drawing inspiration from financial market regulations like the Securities Act of 1933, the author proposes a disclosure-based framework for online advertising. This would increase transparency and stability in the market.

  • Potential solutions:
    • Independent research and auditing of advertising effectiveness
    • Mandatory disclosure of key metrics and conflicts of interest
    • Development of alternative funding models for online services
    • Re-imagining online spaces not constrained by advertising imperatives

Last updated:

FAQ

What is "Subprime Attention Crisis" by Tim Hwang about?

  • Core Thesis: The book argues that the digital advertising ecosystem, which underpins much of the modern internet, is fundamentally unstable and resembles the conditions that led to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.
  • Market Structure: Hwang explores how online advertising has become highly automated, opaque, and financialized, drawing direct parallels to Wall Street and financial markets.
  • Crisis Warning: He warns that the value of online attention is eroding due to fraud, ad-blocking, and declining effectiveness, creating a bubble that could burst with significant consequences for the internet.
  • Call for Change: The book advocates for a "controlled demolition" of the current advertising-driven web, suggesting that reform or collapse could open the door to healthier alternatives.

Why should I read "Subprime Attention Crisis" by Tim Hwang?

  • Understand the Internet’s Economy: The book provides a clear explanation of how digital advertising became the dominant business model for the web and why it matters to everyone who uses the internet.
  • Reveals Hidden Risks: Hwang exposes the structural weaknesses and perverse incentives in online advertising that most users and even many advertisers are unaware of.
  • Timely and Relevant: As debates about privacy, misinformation, and the power of tech giants intensify, the book offers a crucial perspective on the financial underpinnings of these issues.
  • Actionable Insights: Readers gain not just a diagnosis of the problem but also ideas for how society might re-architect the web for the better.

What are the key takeaways from "Subprime Attention Crisis" by Tim Hwang?

  • Advertising as a Bubble: The digital advertising market is overvalued and increasingly disconnected from the real attention and influence it claims to deliver.
  • Opacity and Fraud: The system is plagued by a lack of transparency, rampant fraud, and metrics that are often misleading or outright manipulated.
  • Systemic Risk: The collapse of online advertising would have ripple effects across the internet, media, and even philanthropy, given how many services depend on ad revenue.
  • Need for Reform: Hwang suggests that only through greater transparency, independent research, and possibly regulation can the internet avoid a catastrophic crash.

How does Tim Hwang compare online advertising to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis in "Subprime Attention Crisis"?

  • Derivative Assets: Just as mortgage-backed securities were derivatives of real mortgages, online ad inventory is a derivative of real human attention, which is increasingly subprime.
  • Market Opacity: Both markets became highly opaque, making it difficult for buyers to assess the true value of what they were purchasing.
  • Perverse Incentives: In both cases, intermediaries (banks, agencies, ad tech platforms) had incentives to inflate the value of assets and obscure underlying risks.
  • Potential for Collapse: Hwang argues that, like the subprime crisis, a sudden loss of confidence could trigger a rapid and damaging collapse in the digital advertising market.

What is "programmatic advertising" and why is it central to "Subprime Attention Crisis" by Tim Hwang?

  • Definition: Programmatic advertising refers to the automated, algorithm-driven buying and selling of online ad space in real time, often through auctions.
  • Scale and Speed: This system enables billions of ads to be placed every day, at speeds and scales impossible for humans to manage directly.
  • Market Structure: Programmatic advertising has made the market more like Wall Street, with exchanges, dark pools, and high-frequency trading analogues.
  • Source of Problems: The automation and complexity of programmatic advertising have introduced new forms of opacity, fraud, and misaligned incentives, making the market vulnerable.

How does "Subprime Attention Crisis" by Tim Hwang explain the commodification of attention?

  • Standardization: Attention is broken down into measurable, standardized units (like "impressions" or "viewable impressions") to facilitate buying and selling at scale.
  • Abstraction: This process abstracts away the context and quality of attention, treating all impressions as interchangeable commodities.
  • Market Expansion: Commodification has enabled the explosive growth of digital advertising markets, but also made them susceptible to the same pathologies as financial markets.
  • Negative Consequences: The focus on commodification has led to a system where the true value of attention is often ignored or misrepresented.

What are the main sources of opacity and fraud in the online advertising market according to "Subprime Attention Crisis" by Tim Hwang?

  • Algorithmic Trading: Automated systems make it difficult to track where ads appear and why, even for industry insiders.
  • Dark Pools and Private Marketplaces: Exclusive, non-transparent ad exchanges obscure pricing and inventory, similar to financial dark pools.
  • Platform Dominance: Major players like Google and Facebook control key data and metrics, sometimes inflating or misreporting performance.
  • Rampant Fraud: Practices like click fraud, domain spoofing, and fake traffic siphon billions from advertisers and further erode trust in the system.

How does "Subprime Attention Crisis" by Tim Hwang describe the declining value of online advertising (subprime attention)?

  • Falling Effectiveness: Click-through rates and genuine engagement with ads have plummeted since the early days of online advertising.
  • Ad Blocking: The widespread adoption of ad blockers, especially among younger and wealthier users, reduces the available audience for ads.
  • Fraudulent Activity: A significant portion of ad impressions and clicks are generated by bots or click farms, not real humans.
  • Demographic Shifts: The most valuable audiences are increasingly unreachable through traditional programmatic advertising channels.

What perverse incentives and conflicts of interest does Tim Hwang identify in "Subprime Attention Crisis"?

  • Agency Arbitrage: Marketing agencies often profit by buying ad inventory at a discount and reselling it to clients at a markup, regardless of quality.
  • Ad Tech Middlemen: Demand-side and supply-side platforms may collude to inflate prices, taking large, undisclosed cuts from ad budgets.
  • Lack of Transparency: Both agencies and platforms have little incentive to reveal the true effectiveness or value of the ads they sell.
  • Market Self-Interest: The profitability of the current system discourages meaningful reform, even as structural weaknesses grow.

What solutions or reforms does Tim Hwang propose in "Subprime Attention Crisis"?

  • Controlled Demolition: Rather than trying to fix the broken system, Hwang advocates for a managed unwinding of the programmatic advertising economy.
  • Independent Research: He calls for the creation of a National Bureau of Advertising Research (NBAR) to provide unbiased, rigorous analysis of the industry.
  • Mandated Disclosure: Drawing from financial regulation, Hwang suggests legal requirements for transparency and disclosure in ad markets to restore trust and stability.
  • Encouraging Alternatives: The collapse or reform of ad-driven models could open space for new, healthier business models for the web.

What are the broader societal implications of the "Subprime Attention Crisis" according to Tim Hwang?

  • Threat to Free Services: If advertising revenue collapses, many free online services (search, social media, news) may become paywalled or disappear.
  • Media and Democracy: The health of journalism and public discourse is tied to the advertising economy, making its instability a risk to democracy.
  • Inequality and Access: A shift to paid models could exclude those unable to pay, increasing digital inequality.
  • Shaping the Web: The dominance of advertising has shaped the very architecture and culture of the internet, limiting what kinds of platforms and interactions are possible.

What are the best quotes from "Subprime Attention Crisis" by Tim Hwang and what do they mean?

  • "Attention is subprime. The bottom is falling out even as prices are pushed higher and higher."
    This encapsulates the book’s thesis that the value of online attention is eroding, even as the market continues to inflate.
  • "The web that we experience...is sustainable only because of the continued health of programmatic advertising. Change that, and the whole edifice...begins to change with it."
    Hwang highlights how deeply the internet’s structure depends on advertising, and how fragile that foundation is.
  • "The reality is that vast portions of the programmatic marketplace are not so much miracle cure as snake oil."
    This quote challenges the hype around digital advertising, suggesting much of it is ineffective or fraudulent.
  • "There is, if anything, a strong ethical imperative to allow the collapse of global surveillance capitalism rather than attempting to save it, because it might clear the deck for something better to emerge."
    Hwang argues that the end of the current system could be an opportunity for positive change, not just a crisis.

Review Summary

3.62 out of 5
Average of 1k+ ratings from Goodreads and Amazon.

Subprime Attention Crisis receives mixed reviews, with many praising its clear explanation of programmatic advertising's flaws and potential economic impact. Readers appreciate Hwang's comparison to the 2008 financial crisis and his accessible writing style. Some find the book's predictions compelling, while others feel the catastrophizing may be exaggerated. Critics note repetitiveness and a lack of nuance regarding major platforms. Overall, reviewers value the book's thought-provoking ideas about the future of internet advertising and its economic implications.

Your rating:
4.22
18 ratings

About the Author

Tim Hwang is a writer and researcher with expertise in technology policy and artificial intelligence. He formerly led the Harvard-MIT Ethics and Governance of AI Initiative and worked as Google's global public policy lead for AI and machine learning. Hwang's work has been featured in prominent publications like The New York Times, The Washington Post, and The Wall Street Journal. His background in both academia and industry provides him with a unique perspective on the intersection of technology, policy, and ethics. Based in New York City, Hwang continues to contribute to discussions surrounding the societal impacts of emerging technologies.

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