Key Takeaways
1. Israel's Covert War: A Multi-Faceted Strategy
For want of strategy an army falls, but victory comes with much planning.
Beyond Military Might. Israel's approach to countering Iran's nuclear ambitions extends far beyond conventional military power. It encompasses a complex web of covert operations, intelligence gathering, diplomatic maneuvering, and technological innovation. This multi-pronged strategy reflects the understanding that a purely military solution is both risky and potentially insufficient.
Five Pillars of Defense. Meir Dagan, former head of the Mossad, articulated a five-pillar strategy:
- Political pressure
- Covert measures
- Counterproliferation of technological know-how
- Financial sanctions
- Regime change
Hybrid Warfare. The Mossad's anti-Iranian war involves a hybrid approach, combining targeted assassinations of nuclear scientists, infiltration into Iranian territory, cutting-edge technologies, cyberattacks, and cooperation with the United States. This multifaceted approach aims to disrupt Iran's nuclear program at every stage, from research and development to procurement and deployment.
2. The Mossad's Audacious Heist: Stealing Iran's Nuclear Secrets
The heist was one of the most sensational of many Israeli operations against Iran, a country that since its Islamic Revolution of 1979 has been Israel’s most powerful and dreaded enemy.
A Daring Operation. In January 2018, the Mossad executed a daring operation to steal Iran's nuclear archive from a secret warehouse in Tehran. This involved months of meticulous planning, electronic surveillance, and the infiltration of Israeli agents into Iran. The team successfully extracted half a ton of hard files and compact discs containing the full record of Iran's efforts to become a nuclear weapons power.
Strategic Implications. The heist provided vital intelligence for planning future strikes at the heart of Tehran’s nuclear program. The revelation of the archive's contents showed that Iran had been lying for years to the international community about its nuclear program, falsely claiming that it was only for civilian use. This disclosure led the International Atomic Energy Agency to step up its demands for greater access to Iranian facilities.
Undermining the JCPOA. The information derived from the archive gave then president Donald Trump the justification he needed to withdraw from the nuclear accords with Iran signed by the Barack Obama administration in 2015. According to that deal, Iran agreed to stop its nuclear development and the U.S. agreed to drop economic sanctions it had placed on the regime.
3. The Begin Doctrine: Israel's Red Line on Nuclear Weapons
On no account shall we permit an enemy to develop weapons of mass destruction against the people of Israel.
Never Again. The Begin Doctrine, named after former Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin, guides Israel's policy on weapons of mass destruction in the hands of enemy states. It asserts that Israel will not allow an enemy to develop weapons of mass destruction against its people and will defend its citizens with all means at its disposal.
Preemptive Strikes. The doctrine was first invoked in 1981 when Israel bombed and destroyed the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq. It was tested again in 2007 when Israeli jets bombed and destroyed a North Korean–built, Iranian-financed nuclear reactor in Syria. These actions demonstrate Israel's willingness to take military action to prevent its enemies from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Ambiguity and Deterrence. While outspoken about Iran's nuclear program, Israel maintains a policy of ambiguity about its own nuclear capabilities. It has never denied or admitted possessing nuclear weapons, saying only that it will not be the first to introduce them into the Middle East. This ambiguity is intended to serve as a deterrent, signaling to adversaries that Israel would be willing to cross the nuclear threshold in the event of an existential threat.
4. The Abraham Accords: A New Middle East Alignment
It was the fear of a nuclear-armed Iran that led the Arab states to stop insisting that Israel solve the Palestinian problem as a condition of normal relations.
Shared Threat. The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, represent a landmark shift in the Middle East, with Israel establishing diplomatic relations with several Muslim countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. A key factor driving this new alignment was the shared fear of a nuclear-armed Iran.
Economic and Technological Cooperation. The moderate Arab countries have come to see Israel as key to their economic vision for the future—a future in which technology eventually will replace oil as the most important ingredient for success. This has led to increased cooperation in areas such as technology, trade, and tourism.
The Mossad's Role. The Mossad played a key role in the secret diplomacy that led to the Abraham Accords. This involved traditional intelligence gathering and analysis combined with ongoing secret contacts arranged by the Mossad and involving many clandestine trips and meetings carried out by Yossi Cohen himself.
5. The Shadow Commander: Targeting Qassem Soleimani
Dagan’s specialty is separating an Arab from his head.
A Mastermind of Regional Destabilization. Qassem Soleimani, the chief of the Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was a key figure in Iran's efforts to expand its influence throughout the Middle East. He was responsible for supporting proxy groups in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, and for orchestrating terrorist attacks against Israeli targets.
A Long-Sought Target. Soleimani had been a target for Israel for many years, but the United States had previously vetoed an assassination attempt. However, in January 2020, the U.S. carried out a drone strike that killed Soleimani in Baghdad.
Impact on Iran's Operations. Soleimani's death was a major blow to Iran's ability to project power in the region. His replacement, Esmail Ghaani, is considered less experienced and less capable, potentially weakening Iran's ability to coordinate its proxy forces and carry out its regional agenda.
6. Cyber Warfare: A New Battleground
The cyber winter is coming, and it will arrive faster and stronger than the worst estimates.
A New Era of Conflict. Cyber warfare has emerged as a key battleground in the conflict between Israel and Iran. Both countries possess sophisticated cyber capabilities and have engaged in a series of attacks targeting critical infrastructure, government networks, and private sector companies.
Stuxnet and Beyond. The Stuxnet worm, which targeted Iran's nuclear facilities in 2010, was a watershed moment in cyber warfare. Since then, Iran has invested heavily in developing its own cyber capabilities, and has launched a series of attacks against Israeli and American targets.
Defending Critical Infrastructure. Israel has established a National Cyber Directorate to protect its critical infrastructure from cyberattacks. The country is also investing in cutting-edge technologies and fostering collaboration between the government, private sector, and academia to enhance its cyber defenses.
7. The IAEA's Role: Inspections and International Pressure
The credibility of the Agency as a whole is our biggest asset.
Monitoring and Verification. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is the Vienna-based U.N. group charged with inspecting and reporting on Iran's nuclear program. Its role is to verify that Iran is complying with its obligations under the nuclear accords and to report any violations to the international community.
Challenges and Limitations. The IAEA's effectiveness has been hampered by Iran's lack of cooperation and its refusal to grant inspectors full access to its facilities. The agency has also faced criticism for being too lenient in its assessments of Iran's compliance.
The Impact of the Archive Theft. The Mossad's theft of Iran's nuclear archive has put the IAEA in an awkward position. The agency has been forced to confront Iran with evidence of its past lies and to demand greater access to Iranian facilities.
8. The Future of Israel-Iran Relations: Uncertainty and Escalation
The Mossad isn’t an organization for targeted killing. Sometimes you have to do that.… But you don’t have to admit it.
A Protracted Conflict. The conflict between Israel and Iran is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Despite the Abraham Accords and the efforts to contain Iran's influence, the underlying tensions and ideological differences between the two countries remain.
Potential for Escalation. The ongoing covert war between Israel and Iran carries the risk of escalation into a full-blown military conflict. A miscalculation or a provocative action by either side could trigger a chain of events leading to a wider regional war.
The Nuclear Question. The ultimate question is whether Iran will be allowed to develop nuclear weapons. If Israel obtains intelligence to the effect that Iran is about to produce such a weapon, the Begin Doctrine will surely be invoked again, and Israel could well launch a massive military raid against the Islamic Republic, no matter the cost.
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FAQ
What’s Target Tehran by Yonah Jeremy Bob about?
- Comprehensive espionage narrative: The book chronicles Israel’s decades-long covert war against Iran’s nuclear program, focusing on sabotage, cyberwarfare, assassinations, and secret diplomacy.
- Mossad’s operations revealed: It details high-stakes missions like the 2018 heist of Iran’s nuclear archive and the assassination of key Iranian nuclear scientists.
- Diplomatic breakthroughs: The narrative explores how Israel’s intelligence efforts intersected with diplomatic moves, such as the Abraham Accords, to reshape the Middle East.
- Geopolitical analysis: The book provides insight into the internal power struggles in Iran, U.S. policy shifts, and the evolving security landscape of the region.
Why should I read Target Tehran by Yonah Jeremy Bob?
- Unprecedented insider access: The authors conducted extensive interviews with Mossad chiefs, Israeli prime ministers, and U.S. officials, offering unique perspectives.
- Understanding modern espionage: The book provides a rare look at how intelligence, cyberwarfare, and targeted assassinations are used in statecraft.
- Context for Middle East dynamics: It explains the strategic rationale behind Israel’s covert war on Iran and the diplomatic efforts that led to the Abraham Accords.
- Insight into future challenges: Readers gain an understanding of ongoing threats, potential military scenarios, and the fragile balance of power in the region.
What are the key takeaways from Target Tehran by Yonah Jeremy Bob?
- Multifaceted Israeli strategy: Israel’s approach combines espionage, sabotage, cyberwarfare, assassinations, and secret diplomacy to delay Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
- Impact on regional alliances: The book shows how these covert actions contributed to new alliances, such as the Abraham Accords, shifting the Middle East’s balance of power.
- Moral and strategic dilemmas: It discusses the uncertainties and consequences of clandestine warfare, offering a nuanced view of the costs and benefits.
- Persistence and adaptability: Israel’s efforts are portrayed as a long-term, evolving campaign requiring creativity and coordination across multiple fronts.
What are the best quotes from Target Tehran by Yonah Jeremy Bob and what do they mean?
- “How you use intelligence is even more important than the intelligence itself.” – Yossi Cohen emphasizes the strategic value of operationalizing intelligence, not just collecting it.
- “On no account shall we permit an enemy to develop weapons of mass destruction against the people of Israel.” – This reflects Israel’s uncompromising security doctrine guiding its actions.
- “Death by a thousand cuts.” – Coined by Naftali Bennett, this phrase encapsulates Israel’s strategy of continuous, small-scale covert actions to gradually weaken Iran.
- Quotes highlight resolve and strategy: These statements underscore the book’s themes of determination, innovation, and the ethical complexities of covert warfare.
What was the significance of the 2018 Mossad heist of Iran’s nuclear archive in Target Tehran?
- Largest intelligence theft: Mossad agents infiltrated a Tehran warehouse and extracted tens of thousands of documents, exposing Iran’s secret nuclear weapons program.
- Proof of Iranian deception: The archive revealed Iran’s lies to the international community about the military dimensions of its nuclear program, undermining the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA).
- Catalyst for policy shifts: The operation justified the U.S. withdrawal from the accord, intensified sanctions, and strengthened Israel’s diplomatic standing with Gulf states.
- Operational blueprint: The stolen documents provided Israel with a “map” of Iran’s nuclear facilities and activities, enabling further targeted operations.
Who are the key figures in Israel’s covert war on Iran according to Target Tehran by Yonah Jeremy Bob?
- Yossi Cohen: Mossad chief (2016–2021), architect of the covert war against Iran, and a key player in the Abraham Accords negotiations.
- Meir Dagan: Mossad director (2002–2011), who developed the doctrine of sabotage and assassinations to delay Iran’s nuclear progress.
- Benjamin Netanyahu: Israeli prime minister during critical periods, who pushed aggressively against the JCPOA and supported both covert and diplomatic efforts.
- Mohsen Fakhrizadeh: Iran’s top nuclear scientist, assassinated in 2020, central to Iran’s nuclear weapons development and deception efforts.
- Qasem Soleimani: IRGC Quds Force chief, killed in a U.S. drone strike in 2020, was a key architect of Iran’s regional military strategy.
What is the Begin Doctrine and how does it shape Israel’s actions in Target Tehran by Yonah Jeremy Bob?
- Policy of preemptive strikes: The Begin Doctrine states Israel will not allow any enemy to develop weapons of mass destruction against it, originating from the 1981 Osirak reactor bombing.
- Guiding principle: This doctrine justifies Israel’s covert operations and potential military strikes to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
- Historical application: The book traces the doctrine’s use from Iraq and Syria to Iran, showing Israel’s willingness to act decisively for its security.
- Moral and strategic foundation: The doctrine underpins Israel’s uncompromising stance and shapes its intelligence and military strategies.
How does Target Tehran by Yonah Jeremy Bob explain the Abraham Accords’ role in Israel’s strategy against Iran?
- Strategic alliance formation: The Abraham Accords normalized relations between Israel and several Sunni Arab states, united by shared concerns over Iran.
- Mossad’s diplomatic role: Yossi Cohen and Mossad played a key behind-the-scenes role in building trust and secret contacts with Gulf leaders.
- Military and intelligence cooperation: The Accords enabled unprecedented defense collaborations, arms sales, and intelligence sharing.
- Shift in regional dynamics: The agreements isolated Iran diplomatically and created a new Middle Eastern balance of power, reducing the centrality of the Palestinian issue.
What covert methods did Israel use against Iran’s nuclear program according to Target Tehran by Yonah Jeremy Bob?
- Sabotage and assassinations: Targeted killings of Iranian nuclear scientists and sabotage of nuclear facilities delayed Iran’s progress.
- Cyberwarfare: Israel pioneered cyberattacks like Stuxnet and engaged in ongoing cyber conflicts targeting Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites.
- Intelligence theft and infiltration: Operations like the 2018 archive heist and deep penetration of Iranian supply chains were critical to Israel’s strategy.
- Use of proxies: Mossad leveraged groups like the MEK for operations inside Iran, expanding its reach and operational flexibility.
How does Target Tehran by Yonah Jeremy Bob describe the cyberwarfare dimension of the Israel-Iran conflict?
- Escalating cyber conflict: Both countries have launched cyberattacks on each other’s critical infrastructure, including water systems, gas stations, and nuclear facilities.
- Mutual vulnerabilities: Israel’s technological dependence makes it vulnerable, while Iran’s growing cyber skills pose increasing threats.
- Strategic and psychological impact: Cyberattacks are used to disrupt civilian life, sow chaos, and serve as part of a broader hybrid warfare strategy.
- Complement to physical operations: Cyberwarfare is integrated with sabotage and assassinations, allowing Israel to impose “death by a thousand cuts” on Iran.
How did internal Iranian intelligence rivalries affect Israel’s covert operations, according to Target Tehran by Yonah Jeremy Bob?
- IRGC vs. MOIS turf war: The rivalry between the IRGC and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) weakened Iran’s overall intelligence effectiveness.
- MOIS’s counterintelligence sidelined: Despite MOIS’s expertise, the IRGC’s rise led to less professional and more distracted intelligence operations.
- Openings for Mossad: The infighting created vulnerabilities that Mossad exploited for assassinations, sabotage, and intelligence theft.
- Khamenei’s political manipulation: Iran’s Supreme Leader fostered this rivalry to prevent any one agency from becoming too powerful, inadvertently aiding Israeli efforts.
What is the “death by a thousand cuts” strategy in Target Tehran by Yonah Jeremy Bob?
- Gradual weakening of Iran: This strategy involves continuous covert operations—sabotage, assassinations, cyberattacks—to erode Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities over time.
- Multi-front approach: It targets not only nuclear facilities but also missile production, drone programs, and terrorist proxies.
- Inspired by Cold War tactics: The approach mirrors U.S. strategies against the Soviet Union, focusing on sustained pressure to destabilize the adversary.
- Long-term commitment: Israeli leaders emphasize that weakening Iran is a decades-long effort requiring persistence, creativity, and coordination with diplomatic efforts.
Review Summary
Target Tehran receives mostly positive reviews for its detailed exploration of Israel's covert operations against Iran's nuclear program. Readers appreciate the book's insider information, fascinating espionage accounts, and geopolitical insights. Many find it well-researched and engaging, praising its coverage of diplomatic efforts like the Abraham Accords. Some critics note repetition and potential bias, but overall, reviewers consider it an informative and timely read on Middle Eastern politics and intelligence operations. The book's currency and relevance to recent events are frequently highlighted.
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