Target Tehran

1. Israel's Covert War: A Multi-Faceted Strategy

For want of strategy an army falls, but victory comes with much planning.

Beyond Military Might. Israel's approach to countering Iran's nuclear ambitions extends far beyond conventional military power. It encompasses a complex web of covert operations, intelligence gathering, diplomatic maneuvering, and technological innovation. This multi-pronged strategy reflects the understanding that a purely military solution is both risky and potentially insufficient.

Five Pillars of Defense. Meir Dagan, former head of the Mossad, articulated a five-pillar strategy:

• Political pressure
• Covert measures
• Counterproliferation of technological know-how
• Financial sanctions
• Regime change

Hybrid Warfare. The Mossad's anti-Iranian war involves a hybrid approach, combining targeted assassinations of nuclear scientists, infiltration into Iranian territory, cutting-edge technologies, cyberattacks, and cooperation with the United States. This multifaceted approach aims to disrupt Iran's nuclear program at every stage, from research and development to procurement and deployment.

2. The Mossad's Audacious Heist: Stealing Iran's Nuclear Secrets

The heist was one of the most sensational of many Israeli operations against Iran, a country that since its Islamic Revolution of 1979 has been Israel’s most powerful and dreaded enemy.

A Daring Operation. In January 2018, the Mossad executed a daring operation to steal Iran's nuclear archive from a secret warehouse in Tehran. This involved months of meticulous planning, electronic surveillance, and the infiltration of Israeli agents into Iran. The team successfully extracted half a ton of hard files and compact discs containing the full record of Iran's efforts to become a nuclear weapons power.

Strategic Implications. The heist provided vital intelligence for planning future strikes at the heart of Tehran’s nuclear program. The revelation of the archive's contents showed that Iran had been lying for years to the international community about its nuclear program, falsely claiming that it was only for civilian use. This disclosure led the International Atomic Energy Agency to step up its demands for greater access to Iranian facilities.

Undermining the JCPOA. The information derived from the archive gave then president Donald Trump the justification he needed to withdraw from the nuclear accords with Iran signed by the Barack Obama administration in 2015. According to that deal, Iran agreed to stop its nuclear development and the U.S. agreed to drop economic sanctions it had placed on the regime.

3. The Begin Doctrine: Israel's Red Line on Nuclear Weapons

On no account shall we permit an enemy to develop weapons of mass destruction against the people of Israel.

Never Again. The Begin Doctrine, named after former Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin, guides Israel's policy on weapons of mass destruction in the hands of enemy states. It asserts that Israel will not allow an enemy to develop weapons of mass destruction against its people and will defend its citizens with all means at its disposal.

Preemptive Strikes. The doctrine was first invoked in 1981 when Israel bombed and destroyed the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq. It was tested again in 2007 when Israeli jets bombed and destroyed a North Korean–built, Iranian-financed nuclear reactor in Syria. These actions demonstrate Israel's willingness to take military action to prevent its enemies from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Ambiguity and Deterrence. While outspoken about Iran's nuclear program, Israel maintains a policy of ambiguity about its own nuclear capabilities. It has never denied or admitted possessing nuclear weapons, saying only that it will not be the first to introduce them into the Middle East. This ambiguity is intended to serve as a deterrent, signaling to adversaries that Israel would be willing to cross the nuclear threshold in the event of an existential threat.

4. The Abraham Accords: A New Middle East Alignment

It was the fear of a nuclear-armed Iran that led the Arab states to stop insisting that Israel solve the Palestinian problem as a condition of normal relations.

Shared Threat. The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, represent a landmark shift in the Middle East, with Israel establishing diplomatic relations with several Muslim countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. A key factor driving this new alignment was the shared fear of a nuclear-armed Iran.

Economic and Technological Cooperation. The moderate Arab countries have come to see Israel as key to their economic vision for the future—a future in which technology eventually will replace oil as the most important ingredient for success. This has led to increased cooperation in areas such as technology, trade, and tourism.

The Mossad's Role. The Mossad played a key role in the secret diplomacy that led to the Abraham Accords. This involved traditional intelligence gathering and analysis combined with ongoing secret contacts arranged by the Mossad and involving many clandestine trips and meetings carried out by Yossi Cohen himself.

5. The Shadow Commander: Targeting Qassem Soleimani

Dagan’s specialty is separating an Arab from his head.

A Mastermind of Regional Destabilization. Qassem Soleimani, the chief of the Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was a key figure in Iran's efforts to expand its influence throughout the Middle East. He was responsible for supporting proxy groups in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, and for orchestrating terrorist attacks against Israeli targets.

A Long-Sought Target. Soleimani had been a target for Israel for many years, but the United States had previously vetoed an assassination attempt. However, in January 2020, the U.S. carried out a drone strike that killed Soleimani in Baghdad.

Impact on Iran's Operations. Soleimani's death was a major blow to Iran's ability to project power in the region. His replacement, Esmail Ghaani, is considered less experienced and less capable, potentially weakening Iran's ability to coordinate its proxy forces and carry out its regional agenda.

6. Cyber Warfare: A New Battleground

The cyber winter is coming, and it will arrive faster and stronger than the worst estimates.

A New Era of Conflict. Cyber warfare has emerged as a key battleground in the conflict between Israel and Iran. Both countries possess sophisticated cyber capabilities and have engaged in a series of attacks targeting critical infrastructure, government networks, and private sector companies.

Stuxnet and Beyond. The Stuxnet worm, which targeted Iran's nuclear facilities in 2010, was a watershed moment in cyber warfare. Since then, Iran has invested heavily in developing its own cyber capabilities, and has launched a series of attacks against Israeli and American targets.

Defending Critical Infrastructure. Israel has established a National Cyber Directorate to protect its critical infrastructure from cyberattacks. The country is also investing in cutting-edge technologies and fostering collaboration between the government, private sector, and academia to enhance its cyber defenses.

7. The IAEA's Role: Inspections and International Pressure

The credibility of the Agency as a whole is our biggest asset.

Monitoring and Verification. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is the Vienna-based U.N. group charged with inspecting and reporting on Iran's nuclear program. Its role is to verify that Iran is complying with its obligations under the nuclear accords and to report any violations to the international community.

Challenges and Limitations. The IAEA's effectiveness has been hampered by Iran's lack of cooperation and its refusal to grant inspectors full access to its facilities. The agency has also faced criticism for being too lenient in its assessments of Iran's compliance.

The Impact of the Archive Theft. The Mossad's theft of Iran's nuclear archive has put the IAEA in an awkward position. The agency has been forced to confront Iran with evidence of its past lies and to demand greater access to Iranian facilities.

8. The Future of Israel-Iran Relations: Uncertainty and Escalation

The Mossad isn’t an organization for targeted killing. Sometimes you have to do that.… But you don’t have to admit it.

A Protracted Conflict. The conflict between Israel and Iran is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Despite the Abraham Accords and the efforts to contain Iran's influence, the underlying tensions and ideological differences between the two countries remain.

Potential for Escalation. The ongoing covert war between Israel and Iran carries the risk of escalation into a full-blown military conflict. A miscalculation or a provocative action by either side could trigger a chain of events leading to a wider regional war.

The Nuclear Question. The ultimate question is whether Iran will be allowed to develop nuclear weapons. If Israel obtains intelligence to the effect that Iran is about to produce such a weapon, the Begin Doctrine will surely be invoked again, and Israel could well launch a massive military raid against the Islamic Republic, no matter the cost.

Last updated: March 15, 2025