The Age of the Strongman

1. The Age of the Strongman: A global shift towards authoritarian leadership

Since 2000 the rise of the strongman leader has become a central feature of global politics.

Global trend. The 21st century has witnessed a resurgence of authoritarian leadership styles across diverse political systems. From Russia to the United States, Turkey to India, strongmen have risen to power by appealing to nationalism, exploiting economic grievances, and promising to restore national greatness. These leaders share common traits:

• Encouragement of personality cults
• Contempt for the rule of law
• Populist appeals against "elites"
• Nationalism and fear-driven politics

Underlying factors. This shift is driven by:

• Economic insecurity and inequality
• Cultural anxieties about globalization and demographic change
• Disillusionment with traditional political institutions
• The power of social media to amplify populist messages
• Geopolitical shifts challenging the liberal world order

2. Putin's Russia: The archetype of modern strongman rule

Putin was to become an important symbol and even an inspiration for a new generation of would-be authoritarians who admire his nationalism, his daring, his willingness to use violence and his contempt for "political correctness."

Consolidation of power. Vladimir Putin's rise and long rule in Russia exemplifies the strongman playbook:

• Centralization of authority and elimination of rivals
• Control of media and suppression of dissent
• Cultivation of a macho, nationalist image
• Use of military adventures to bolster domestic support

Global influence. Putin's model has inspired other strongmen through:

• Defiance of Western liberal norms
• Skillful use of disinformation and cyber tactics
• Promotion of a culturally conservative, anti-globalist worldview

3. Erdoğan's Turkey: From reformer to autocrat

Erdoğan's embrace of the strongman style took a while to emerge. Initially widely hailed in the West as a liberal reformer, Erdoğan has become increasingly autocratic over two decades in power.

Gradual transformation. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's journey from democratic reformer to authoritarian leader illustrates how strongmen can emerge within democratic systems:

1. Initial period of economic growth and democratic reforms
2. Gradual erosion of institutional checks and balances
3. Increasing intolerance of opposition and media criticism
4. Use of security crises to justify power consolidation

Geopolitical implications. Erdoğan's rule has reshaped Turkey's role:

• Strained relations with the EU and NATO
• More assertive foreign policy in the Middle East
• Balancing act between Russia and the West

4. Xi Jinping's China: The return of the personality cult

Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era," was written into the party's constitution. As a result, Xi became the first living leader since Mao to have his own ideas incorporated into the party's founding document.

Maoist revival. Xi Jinping has overseen a dramatic centralization of power in China, reversing decades of collective leadership:

• Elimination of presidential term limits
• Promotion of "Xi Jinping Thought" as official ideology
• Pervasive propaganda and personality cult

Global ambitions. Xi's rule has reshaped China's global posture:

• More assertive foreign policy (Belt and Road Initiative, South China Sea)
• Technological competition with the West
• Promotion of the "China model" as an alternative to liberal democracy

5. Modi's India: Strongman politics in the world's largest democracy

Modi won power by running against the tainted elite of "Imperial Manila." He professes to be uncomfortable in their company, with his provincial background and regional accent.

Hindu nationalism. Narendra Modi's rule has reshaped Indian politics through:

• Promotion of Hindu nationalist ideology
• Erosion of secular traditions and minority rights
• Centralization of power and weakening of federal structures
• Populist economic policies and nationalist rhetoric

Democratic erosion. Modi's tenure has seen:

• Increased pressure on media and civil society
• Use of security laws to target dissent
• Politicization of institutions like the judiciary

6. Orbán and Kaczynski: The rise of illiberal Europe

Orbán proudly claimed co-authorship, with the White House aide Stephen Miller, of "the last interesting speech Trump made," which had been given in Warsaw as a deliberate gesture to Trump's ideological allies in the Polish government.

Illiberal democracy. Viktor Orbán in Hungary and Jaroslaw Kaczynski in Poland have challenged EU norms:

• Weakening of judicial independence
• Control over media and civil society
• Promotion of culturally conservative, anti-immigrant policies
• Defiance of EU rules and values

EU challenge. Their actions have:

• Strained EU unity and decision-making
• Provided a model for other European populists
• Challenged the EU's ability to enforce democratic norms

7. Trump's America: Populism and the assault on democratic norms

Trump's discourse seemed to confirm this long-standing Russian and Chinese position. Here was an American president willing to say: we also lie, we also kill, our media is fake, our elections are rigged, our courts are dishonest.

Populist presidency. Donald Trump's tenure marked a dramatic break with American political norms:

• Inflammatory rhetoric and attacks on institutions
• Disregard for democratic norms and processes
• America First foreign policy challenging alliances
• Embrace of conspiracy theories and disinformation

Global impact. Trump's presidency:

• Emboldened other strongmen and populists globally
• Weakened American soft power and global leadership
• Deepened political polarization within the US

8. Duterte and Southeast Asia: The erosion of democratic institutions

Duterte stands out as the most overtly thuggish. While Trump once joked that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue without losing voters, Duterte actually put the theory to the test.

Violent populism. Rodrigo Duterte's rule in the Philippines exemplifies a brutal form of strongman politics:

• Extrajudicial killings in the "war on drugs"
• Attacks on media and opposition figures
• Populist appeals and coarse rhetoric

Regional trend. Duterte's rule reflects broader challenges to democracy in Southeast Asia:

• Democratic backsliding in Thailand and Myanmar
• Increasing authoritarianism in Cambodia
• Erosion of democratic norms even in more stable democracies like Indonesia

9. MBS and Netanyahu: Strongman politics in the Middle East

MBS, as he became known, was hailed by some in the West as just the kind of authoritarian reformist that Saudi Arabia needed – until the murder and dismemberment of Jamal Khashoggi, a dissident journalist, shocked the crown prince's Western fans.

Saudi transformation. Mohammed bin Salman's (MBS) rule in Saudi Arabia combines:

• Economic and social reforms
• Brutal repression of dissent
• More aggressive foreign policy

Israeli populism. Benjamin Netanyahu's long rule saw:

• Embrace of right-wing populism and nationalism
• Erosion of democratic norms and institutions
• Alignment with other global strongmen

10. Bolsonaro and AMLO: The return of caudillo politics in Latin America

Bolsonaro's victory had a continental, indeed global significance. Until the early 1980s, Latin America had been dominated by authoritarian leaders; in 1978, there were just three democracies in the whole of the continent.

Right and left populism. Latin America has seen the rise of strongmen on both political extremes:

• Jair Bolsonaro's right-wing populism in Brazil
• Andrés Manuel López Obrador's (AMLO) left-wing populism in Mexico

Common features:

• Attacks on democratic institutions
• Polarizing rhetoric
• Personalistic leadership styles

Regional implications. These trends have:

• Weakened regional cooperation
• Challenged the consolidation of democracy
• Complicated relations with the US and other powers

11. The battle of ideas: Soros vs. Bannon in the struggle for global influence

For many years, Soros was in tune with the spirit of the age, as he used the billions he had made in finance to support the transition to democracy in post-Communist Europe and elsewhere. But now the global political climate has changed and liberal ideas are in retreat.

Competing visions. The struggle between liberal internationalism and nationalist populism is embodied in two figures:

George Soros:

• Champion of liberal democracy and open societies
• Philanthropic support for civil society and human rights
• Target of anti-Semitic conspiracy theories

Steve Bannon:

• Advocate for nationalist populism
• Efforts to build a global network of right-wing movements
• Promotion of anti-globalist, anti-elite narratives

Ideological battleground. This conflict plays out through:

• Think tanks and foundations
• Media and social media
• Electoral politics and grassroots movements

12. Biden's challenge: Confronting strongman politics in a changing world order

Biden has made the global promotion of democracy a central goal of his presidency. But he has come to power in the midst of the Age of the Strongman.

Domestic struggle. Joe Biden faces significant challenges in restoring democratic norms in the US:

• Deep political polarization
• Persistent influence of Trump and Trumpism
• Erosion of trust in institutions

Global dynamics. Biden's efforts to counter strongman politics globally are complicated by:

• The rising power of China and assertiveness of Russia
• The entrenchment of strongmen in key US allies (e.g., India, Brazil)
• Economic and technological competition

Strategic dilemmas. Biden must balance:

• Promotion of democracy with pragmatic engagement
• Rebuilding alliances while addressing strongman tendencies in allies
• Domestic priorities with global leadership

Last updated: August 8, 2024