Key Takeaways
1. Bestsellers share common patterns detectable by algorithms
"The bold claim of this book is that the novels that hit the New York Times bestseller lists are not random, and the market is not in fact as unknowable as others suggest."
Data-driven insights: The authors developed a computer model, dubbed the "bestseller-ometer," that can identify patterns in bestselling novels with 80% accuracy. This challenges the notion that bestseller success is purely random or based solely on marketing efforts.
Key factors analyzed:
- Thematic content and topic balance
- Emotional arcs and plot structures
- Stylistic elements (e.g., sentence structure, word choice)
- Character agency and development
By examining these factors across thousands of novels, the authors uncovered commonalities among bestsellers that transcend genre boundaries and provide insights into what makes a book commercially successful.
2. Theme and topic balance is crucial for bestselling novels
"The bestseller rate in the industry as it stands is less than one-half of one percent. That's a lot of gambling before a big win."
Optimal theme distribution: Bestselling novels typically have 2-3 main themes that occupy about 30% of the book's content. The remaining 70% incorporates various secondary themes for depth and flavor.
Top themes in bestsellers:
- Human closeness and relationships
- Work and professional life
- Modern technology
- Domestic settings
- Crime and legal matters
Contrary to popular belief, explicit sex and violence are not primary drivers of bestseller success. Instead, bestsellers tend to focus on relatable, everyday themes that resonate with a broad audience while incorporating elements of conflict and tension.
3. Emotional arcs and plot structures drive bestseller success
"These micro-features of an individual author's style might not be all that revelatory to study as one-off examples, but taken together they show a significant pattern about voice and register in bestselling fiction."
Emotional rhythm: Bestsellers often feature a regular, symmetrical pattern of emotional highs and lows throughout the narrative. This creates a "page-turner" effect that keeps readers engaged.
Seven fundamental plot shapes: The authors identified seven basic plot structures that encompass most bestselling novels:
- Rags to riches (steady rise)
- Riches to rags (steady fall)
- Man in a hole (fall then rise)
- Icarus (rise then fall)
- Cinderella (rise, fall, rise)
- Oedipus (fall, rise, fall)
- Man on a mountain (rise, fall, rise, fall)
While no single plot shape guarantees success, bestsellers tend to have well-defined emotional arcs that align with these structures.
4. Stylistic elements distinguish bestsellers from other books
"Using only 148 features, the machine guessed correctly 68 percent of the time, and this was just using the most common filler words and punctuation: no nouns, no adjectives, no verbs, no syntax, no sentence data."
Linguistic fingerprints: Bestselling authors often have distinct stylistic patterns that can be detected through algorithmic analysis. These patterns include:
- Use of common words and punctuation
- Sentence structure and length
- Dialogue tags and speech representation
- Paragraph length and pacing
Key stylistic findings:
- Bestsellers use more contractions and informal language
- They have fewer adverbs and adjectives
- Dialogue is often represented with simple tags (e.g., "said" rather than elaborate alternatives)
- Sentences tend to be shorter and more direct
These stylistic elements contribute to a more accessible and engaging reading experience, appealing to a broader audience.
5. Character agency and development are key to bestselling novels
"Bestselling characters have and express their needs. These protagonists want things, and we learn about those wants."
Active protagonists: Characters in bestselling novels tend to be proactive and goal-oriented. They actively pursue their desires and face conflicts, rather than passively reacting to events.
Character verbs: The authors found that certain verbs associated with characters are more common in bestsellers:
- Need, want, miss, love
- Grab, do, think, ask
- Look, hold, tell, like
These verbs indicate characters with agency, self-awareness, and emotional depth. In contrast, less successful novels often feature characters who wish, suppose, or seem – more passive verbs that don't drive the story forward.
Character growth: Bestselling novels typically show character development over the course of the story, with protagonists learning, changing, and overcoming obstacles.
6. The "girl" phenomenon in recent bestsellers reveals cultural trends
"The girl novels are interesting partly because they challenge this kind of labeling."
Subverting expectations: Recent bestsellers featuring "girl" protagonists (e.g., "Gone Girl," "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo") have captivated readers by challenging traditional female character archetypes.
Characteristics of "girl" novels:
- Complex, morally ambiguous female protagonists
- Exploration of darker themes within domestic settings
- Subversion of traditional relationship narratives
- High levels of character agency and plot-driving action
These novels reflect a cultural shift in expectations for female characters and storylines, appealing to readers seeking more nuanced and challenging narratives.
Cultural significance: The popularity of these novels suggests a broader interest in exploring the complexities of modern female experiences and societal expectations.
7. Algorithmic analysis can predict bestseller potential with high accuracy
"According to our model, a book with sex in almost every chapter is less likely to hit the lists. There are exceptions to this, of course—who can ignore Sylvia Day or E. L. James?—but two authors alone cannot overly influence a whole model, which is examining thousands of books."
Predictive power: The authors' model can predict bestseller potential with approximately 80% accuracy, based on analysis of thousands of novels.
Applications of the model:
- Identifying promising manuscripts for publishers
- Helping authors refine their work for greater commercial appeal
- Understanding trends in reader preferences and market dynamics
Limitations: While highly accurate, the model is not infallible. It may miss outliers or unique works that defy conventional patterns. Additionally, the model focuses on textual elements and does not account for external factors like author reputation or marketing efforts.
Ethical considerations: The authors emphasize that their goal is not to create a formula for writing bestsellers, but rather to understand the elements that contribute to a book's success. They argue that this knowledge can help diversify the publishing industry and give new authors a better chance at success.
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Review Summary
Reviews of The Bestseller Code are mixed. Many find the premise fascinating - using algorithms to analyze bestselling novels - but some criticize the execution as repetitive or lacking depth. Readers appreciate insights into what makes a bestseller, like strong characters and accessible language, but some wanted more detailed data. The book is seen as potentially useful for aspiring authors, though its focus on adult fiction is noted as a limitation. Overall, it's viewed as an intriguing look at the science behind bestsellers, even if not revolutionary.
