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The Coming China Wars

The Coming China Wars

Where They Will Be Fought And How They Can Be Won
by Peter Navarro 2006 263 pages
3.32
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Key Takeaways

1. China's "Weapon of Mass Production" is the China Price

The China Price. They are the three scariest words in U.S. industry. Cut your price at least 30% or lose your customers.

Drivers of the China Price. China's economic ascent is fueled by its ability to offer the "China Price," significantly undercutting foreign competitors. This is achieved through a combination of factors, including low-wage labor, minimal worker protections, lax environmental regulations, and government subsidies. These practices, while driving economic growth for China, create unfair competition and sow the seeds of future conflict.

Unfair Trade Practices. While some drivers of the China Price, such as efficient industrial organization ("network clustering"), are legitimate, many others violate international trade standards. These include currency manipulation, government-sanctioned counterfeiting, and protectionist trade barriers. These unfair practices allow China to dominate export markets while undermining fair competition.

Economic and Social Consequences. The China Price has led to a massive shift in economic power, with China becoming the world's "factory floor." This has resulted in job losses and wage depression in other countries, contributing to economic instability and social unrest. The long-term consequences of these unfair trade practices could be catastrophic for the global economy.

2. China's State-Sanctioned Piracy Undermines Global Innovation

The larger truth is that the Chinese economy has staked a great deal on its counterfeiters.

Economic and Health Risks. China has become the world's largest pirate nation, counterfeiting everything from luxury goods to pharmaceuticals. This poses grave health risks to consumers who unknowingly purchase fake medications or products with substandard safety features. It also destroys global intellectual property law protections, stifling innovation.

Government Complicity. The Chinese government's tacit support of counterfeiting and piracy is driven by economic factors, including controlling inflation, creating jobs, and expanding the tax base. Local protectionism further exacerbates the problem, as local officials often support counterfeiters who contribute to the local economy.

Cultural and Ideological Factors. Cultural norms that revere imitation, combined with a legacy of Maoist ideology that disregards private property, contribute to the widespread acceptance of counterfeiting in China. This creates a perfect storm for intellectual property theft, undermining the global innovation ecosystem.

3. China's Air Pollution Crisis Extends Far Beyond Its Borders

China’s population is so big and its resources so scarce that if we continue to ignore our environmental problems, that will bring disaster for us and the world.

Environmental Catastrophe. China's rapid industrialization and lax environmental controls have made it the most polluted nation on Earth. With 16 of the world's 20 most polluted cities, China's toxic emissions are spewing well beyond its borders, impacting neighboring countries and contributing to global warming.

Regional and Global Impact. Acid rain, originating from China's sulfur dioxide emissions, damages forests and crops in Japan and Korea. Dust storms from China's desertification blanket Korea and Japan with toxic dust. Chinese smog, or "chog," reaches as far as North America, impacting air quality in cities like Los Angeles and Vancouver.

Root Causes. China's heavy reliance on coal, coupled with weak environmental regulations and enforcement, is a primary driver of its air pollution crisis. The lack of a functioning legal system to protect workers and the environment further exacerbates the problem, creating a dangerous and unsustainable situation.

4. China's Thirst for Oil Drives Amoral Foreign Policy

China’s undervalued currency encourages undervalued Chinese exports to the U.S. and discourages U.S. exports because U.S. exports are artificially overvalued.

Global Oil Demand. China's rapid economic growth has made it the world's second-largest petroleum consumer, driving up global oil prices. To secure its oil supplies, China has adopted a foreign policy based on "just business, no political conditions," leading to controversial alliances with rogue nations.

Blood for Oil Diplomacy. China's amoral approach has resulted in the slaughter and impoverishment of millions, as it supports dictators and regimes in exchange for oil. This has also led to a rapid spike in nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and Asia, as China ships ballistic missiles and transfers nuclear weapons technologies to countries like Iran.

Geopolitical Instability. China's pursuit of oil has destabilized international relations, as it uses its diplomatic veto in the United Nations to shield terrorist regimes and facilitate the looting of public treasuries by dictators. This has created a dangerous and unsustainable situation, threatening global peace and security.

5. China's "New Imperialism" Exploits Developing Nations

China is the epicenter of the counterfeits boom . . . Just a few years ago, counterfeiting was all Gucci bags and fake perfume. Now it’s everything.

Weapons of Mass Construction. China is engaging in a new form of imperialism, using "weapons of mass construction" to build infrastructure in developing countries in exchange for access to their natural resources. This involves offering lavish, low-interest loans and sophisticated weapons systems as bait.

Debt Trap Diplomacy. After these countries are driven deeper into China's debt, China extracts their raw materials, such as tin, copper, nickel, and gold. This imperialistic quid pro quo enriches despotic rulers while impoverishing the peasants they rule over.

Exploitation and Environmental Degradation. China's "new colonies" are exploited for their resources, with little regard for environmental protection or the well-being of the local population. This creates a cycle of poverty and dependence, perpetuating the exploitation of developing nations.

6. China's Dam Building Threatens Water Security and Regional Stability

China’s state-run banks have routinely extended loans to state-owned-enterprises that are not expected to be repaid.

Dam-Happy Nation. China is the dam-happiest place on Earth, constructing mega-dams on its major rivers despite the protests of downstream countries. These dams threaten the food supply, transit routes, and livelihoods of millions of people living in the Lower Mekong River Basin.

Water Wars. China's dam construction is creating a severe water crisis, pitting angry farmers against encroaching industrialists and downstream countries against upstream provinces. This is leading to fierce diplomatic battles and potential military conflicts.

Environmental and Social Costs. China's dam projects have resulted in the displacement of millions of people, the destruction of natural habitats, and the disruption of river ecosystems. These projects also pose a significant risk of catastrophic dam failures, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions more.

7. China's Internal Conflicts Threaten Social and Political Stability

China’s state-run banks have routinely extended loans to state-owned-enterprises that are not expected to be repaid.

Rising Social Unrest. The number of protests and riots in China has risen to nearly 100,000 annually, fueled by income inequality, worker exploitation, environmental degradation, and government corruption. This social unrest poses a significant threat to the ruling Communist Party's grip on power.

Rural Discontent. The Chinese countryside has become a slave labor camp and dumping ground for pollutants, with rural peasants being exploited by corrupt government officials and developers. This has led to widespread anger and resentment, threatening social stability.

Ethnic Tensions. Ethnic separatist tensions continue to smolder in China's western prairies, fueled by the ongoing "Hanification" of the mostly Muslim population. This ethnic strife poses a significant challenge to China's territorial integrity and social cohesion.

8. China's Demographic and Health Crises Loom Large

China’s state-run banks have routinely extended loans to state-owned-enterprises that are not expected to be repaid.

Graying Nation. China is rapidly aging, facing a pension crisis that will make solving the unfunded social security liabilities of other countries look easy. This demographic shift will put tremendous strain on China's economy and social welfare system.

Environmental Health Crisis. Environmental pollution is serving as a deadly catalyst for an explosion of cancers and respiratory and heart diseases. This rapid rise in ill health is coming precisely when China's once-vaunted public health-care system has totally unraveled.

HIV/AIDS Epidemic. Adding to these extreme pressures is an HIV/AIDS epidemic that may soon become the worst in the world. This epidemic, fueled by a blood donor scandal, rampant drug use, and a burgeoning sex trade, threatens to destabilize Chinese society.

9. The U.S. and China are in a Mutually Parasitic Economic Codependence

China’s state-run banks have routinely extended loans to state-owned-enterprises that are not expected to be repaid.

Intertwined Destinies. The U.S. and China have developed a mutually parasitic economic relationship, with the U.S. relying on China to finance its debt and China relying on the U.S. to purchase its exports. This codependence creates a dangerous situation, as each country's economic stability is tied to the other.

Financial Blackmail. China's massive holdings of U.S. debt give it the power to destabilize U.S. financial markets and plunge the country into recession. This creates a "balance of financial terror," where the U.S. is hesitant to challenge China's unfair trade practices for fear of economic retaliation.

Breaking the Cycle. To escape this codependence, the U.S. must get its own fiscal house in order, reducing its reliance on foreign debt and promoting domestic manufacturing. This will require difficult choices and a willingness to challenge China's economic dominance.

10. China's Military Modernization Poses a Geopolitical Challenge

China’s state-run banks have routinely extended loans to state-owned-enterprises that are not expected to be repaid.

Military Buildup. China's military spending is growing even faster than its economy, with a focus on developing a longer-range military reach. This military modernization poses a geopolitical challenge to the United States and its allies.

Potential Flashpoints. Several potential flashpoints could trigger military conflict between China and the U.S., including Taiwan, the South China Sea, North Korea, and China's growing influence in Latin America and the Middle East. These conflicts could have devastating consequences for global peace and security.

Strategic Planning. The U.S. needs a clear strategic plan for dealing with China's rise, balancing economic engagement with a strong military presence in the region. This will require a nuanced approach that recognizes both the opportunities and the risks of China's growing power.

Last updated:

FAQ

1. What is [The Coming China Wars] by Peter Navarro about?

  • Comprehensive conflict analysis: The book examines the wide-ranging economic, environmental, political, and military conflicts arising from China’s rapid growth and global expansion.
  • Eight major “China Wars”: Navarro identifies ongoing and future conflicts, including piracy, counterfeiting, environmental degradation, resource competition, and internal social unrest.
  • Global impact: It explores how China’s rise as the world’s manufacturing hub is reshaping international power dynamics and creating new tensions.
  • Call for action: The book urges global awareness and strategic responses to prevent catastrophic outcomes for both China and the world.

2. Why should I read [The Coming China Wars] by Peter Navarro?

  • Insight into global shifts: The book provides a detailed macroeconomic and geopolitical analysis of China’s rise and its worldwide consequences.
  • Understanding multifront conflicts: Readers gain a nuanced view of how China’s policies affect jobs, resources, technology, the environment, and international relations.
  • Policy relevance: Navarro’s work is essential for policymakers, business leaders, and concerned citizens seeking to anticipate and address the “China Wars.”
  • Practical foresight: The book serves as both a warning and a guide for navigating the challenges posed by China’s emergence.

3. What are the key takeaways from [The Coming China Wars] by Peter Navarro?

  • China’s growth triggers conflict: Rapid economic expansion is fueling disputes over trade, resources, environment, and security.
  • Internal and external challenges: The book highlights China’s internal social unrest, environmental crises, and demographic pressures, as well as its global impact.
  • Economic codependence risks: The U.S.-China financial relationship is mutually parasitic, creating vulnerabilities for both nations.
  • Urgency for global action: Navarro stresses the need for international cooperation and policy reforms to address these multifaceted challenges.

4. What is the “China Price” and why is it important in [The Coming China Wars]?

  • Definition of China Price: It refers to China’s ability to undercut global competitors by offering extremely low prices across a wide range of products.
  • Nine economic drivers: These include low wages, lax regulations, foreign investment, industrial clustering, piracy, undervalued currency, subsidies, and protectionist barriers.
  • Unfair trade advantage: Most drivers violate international trade rules, giving China a significant and often unfair edge in global markets.
  • Source of global tension: The “China Price” is a central factor in economic conflicts and trade disputes highlighted in the book.

5. How does [The Coming China Wars] by Peter Navarro describe China’s counterfeit and piracy economy?

  • Scale of the problem: China produces about two-thirds of the world’s counterfeit goods, including dangerous fakes like pharmaceuticals and auto parts.
  • State-sanctioned piracy: The government often turns a blind eye, as piracy supports domestic jobs, keeps prices low, and boosts exports.
  • Global consequences: Counterfeiting undermines intellectual property rights, stifles innovation, and imposes huge costs on legitimate businesses worldwide.
  • Legal and enforcement issues: Weak enforcement and corruption in China’s legal system allow piracy to flourish despite existing laws.

6. What are the key environmental challenges posed by China in [The Coming China Wars]?

  • Severe pollution: China has some of the world’s most polluted cities, with air and water pollution causing hundreds of thousands of premature deaths.
  • Transboundary effects: Pollution from China spreads to neighboring countries and even North America, contributing to acid rain, dust storms, and global warming.
  • Dam-building and water scarcity: Aggressive dam construction threatens ecosystems, displaces millions, and creates regional water disputes.
  • Regulatory failures: Environmental laws exist but are poorly enforced due to understaffed agencies, corruption, and conflicting economic priorities.

7. How does [The Coming China Wars] by Peter Navarro explain China’s “Blood for Oil” diplomacy and energy conflicts?

  • Rising oil demand: China’s growing economy has made it the world’s second-largest oil consumer, with increasing reliance on imports.
  • Amoral foreign policy: China secures oil through deals with rogue regimes, often providing arms and diplomatic protection in exchange.
  • Geopolitical risks: This approach fuels arms races, nuclear proliferation, and territorial disputes, especially in the South and East China Seas.
  • Potential for conflict: China’s energy strategy increases the risk of military clashes with neighbors and the United States.

8. What is China’s “New Imperialist” strategy according to [The Coming China Wars] by Peter Navarro?

  • Infrastructure as leverage: China invests heavily in infrastructure projects in developing countries, especially in Africa and Latin America.
  • Resource extraction focus: These projects secure access to minerals, metals, and raw materials for export to China.
  • Political influence: Aid and loans often enrich local elites, prop up dictators, and are tied to military support, undermining democratic reforms.
  • Environmental and social costs: Local economies and environments often suffer as a result of China’s resource-driven investments.

9. How does [The Coming China Wars] by Peter Navarro describe China’s role in the global drug trade and the HIV/AIDS epidemic?

  • Precursor chemical supplier: China is a leading producer of chemicals used to manufacture heroin, methamphetamine, and Ecstasy.
  • Drug trafficking networks: Chinese criminal syndicates, often with official complicity, operate drug labs and smuggle narcotics worldwide.
  • HIV/AIDS crisis: The epidemic is fueled by contaminated blood sales, intravenous drug use, and a sexual revolution, threatening social stability.
  • Government challenges: Stigma, lack of awareness, and weak health infrastructure hinder effective responses to the epidemic.

10. What are the internal social and demographic challenges facing China in [The Coming China Wars] by Peter Navarro?

  • Rural-urban divide: Privatization and the collapse of the “iron rice bowl” have created massive unemployment and labor unrest.
  • Peasant discontent: Forced evictions, heavy taxation, and corruption have led to widespread protests and riots.
  • Demographic time bomb: The one-child policy and rapid aging are straining China’s pension and health-care systems.
  • Social instability risks: These internal pressures threaten to undermine China’s economic and political stability.

11. What are the economic codependence and financial risks between the U.S. and China in [The Coming China Wars] by Peter Navarro?

  • Mutually parasitic relationship: The U.S. relies on China to finance its deficits, while China depends on U.S. markets for exports.
  • Currency manipulation: China’s purchase of U.S. debt keeps the yuan undervalued, making Chinese exports cheaper.
  • Political constraints: Both governments avoid addressing the imbalance due to domestic pressures, creating a “balance of financial terror.”
  • Risk of financial blackmail: China’s large holdings of U.S. securities give it leverage to destabilize U.S. markets if tensions escalate.

12. What are the best quotes from [The Coming China Wars] by Peter Navarro and what do they mean?

  • “A single spark can start a prairie fire.” —Mao Zedong: Small incidents of unrest can quickly escalate into widespread upheaval in China’s vast population.
  • “China supports 21 percent of the world’s population with just 7 percent of its water supplies.” —Qui Baoxing: Highlights the severe water scarcity threatening China’s future.
  • “If ordinary people in China don’t make trouble, nothing is resolved. But if everyone thinks problems can only be resolved with violence, that’s a very dangerous situation.” —Professor Lang Youxing: Reflects the delicate balance between social stability and the risk of violent protest.
  • “China is at the crossroads. It can either smoothly evolve into a medium-level developed country or it can spiral into stagnation and chaos.” —Lu Xueyi: Captures the critical juncture China faces amid its challenges.
  • “The United States and China have a mutually parasitic economic codependence.” —Lawrence Summers: Warns of the dangerous financial interdependence limiting U.S. leverage over China.

Review Summary

3.32 out of 5
Average of 100+ ratings from Goodreads and Amazon.

The Coming China Wars receives mixed reviews, with ratings ranging from 1 to 5 stars. Some readers praise it as eye-opening and informative about China's global impact, while others criticize it as biased, alarmist, and lacking in-depth analysis. Positive reviews highlight the book's insights into China's economic and environmental issues, while negative reviews point out its perceived anti-China stance and reliance on quotes. Several readers express concern about China's growing influence and recommend the book for its thought-provoking content, despite its flaws.

Your rating:
4.15
23 ratings

About the Author

Peter Navarro is an economist and public policy expert with a Ph.D. from Harvard University. He teaches at the University of California, Irvine's Paul Merage School of Business, where he has received teaching awards for MBA programs. Navarro has also pursued a political career, running for office in San Diego three times. He campaigned for mayor in 1992, reaching the runoff but ultimately losing. In 1996, he unsuccessfully ran for the 49th Congressional District. His final attempt at public office was in 2001, when he ran for a San Diego city council seat but lost in the primary election.

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