The Devil's Playbook

1. Big Tobacco's Playbook: Deny, Deflect, and Delay

Defendants have marketed and sold their lethal products with zeal, with deception, with a single-minded focus on their financial success, and without regard for the human tragedy or social costs that success exacted.

Decades of Deceit. For decades, Big Tobacco employed a strategy of denying the harmful effects of smoking, discrediting scientific evidence, and delaying regulation. This playbook, honed over decades, involved smearing scientists, suppressing research, and creating doubt in the public mind. Tactics included:

• Smearing scientists and discrediting findings
• Forcing filmmakers to destroy reels depicting smoking's effects
• Building networks of paid scientists to inject doubt into debates

The Tobacco Wars. This period was marked by political knife fights, militant posturing, and an obsessive focus on containing unsavory facts about the company’s products. This approach transformed what could have been a transient policy disagreement into a protracted battle. The industry's hard shell and aggressive disdain for opponents fueled a cycle of attacks and counterattacks, ultimately leading to a bitter reckoning.

The Master Settlement Agreement (MSA). The MSA, signed in 1998, marked a turning point, requiring tobacco companies to pay billions annually to reimburse states for smoking-related costs. It also restricted marketing practices targeting children, acknowledging the industry's role in youth smoking. This agreement forced a shift in strategy, compelling companies to publicly address the harms of their products.

2. The Allure of Disruption: Stanford's Quest for a Better Cigarette

Silicon Valley….It’s a place where the future is dreamed up, prototyped, packaged, and ultimately sold.

Combustion is the Enemy. James Monsees and Adam Bowen, Stanford product design students, sought to disrupt the cigarette by eliminating combustion, the source of thousands of harmful chemicals. They aimed to create a healthier, more socially acceptable nicotine delivery system. Their thesis project, Solace (later Ploom), focused on vaporization as a solution.

Learning from Big Tobacco's Failures. Bowen and Monsees delved into tobacco industry archives, discovering decades of failed attempts to create non-combustible cigarettes. This research informed their design, emphasizing vaporization and portability. They sought to improve upon past failures by creating a sleeker, more user-friendly device.

Design Thinking and the d.school. The Stanford d.school, with its emphasis on design thinking and rapid prototyping, provided the ideal environment for Bowen and Monsees to develop their idea. Mentorship from design guru David Kelley and access to resources fueled their ambition to disrupt the cigarette industry. This environment fostered a belief in their ability to change the world through design.

3. Nicotine's Siren Song: The Addictive Heart of the Matter

In reality, a cigarette is for nicotine delivery.

Nicotine as the Core. Bowen and Monsees recognized that nicotine, not tobacco itself, was the primary driver of smoking addiction. They aimed to create a product that delivered nicotine without the harmful byproducts of combustion. This focus on nicotine delivery led to the development of a heated-tobacco gadget that vaporized loose-leaf tobacco.

The Paradox of Nicotine. While nicotine is highly addictive and harmful to developing brains, it is not the primary cause of smoking-related diseases. This realization opened the door to exploring alternative nicotine delivery systems that could potentially reduce harm. The key was to find a way to deliver nicotine in a satisfying way without the deadly smoke.

The Search for the "Ideal Smoke." Philip Morris, like other tobacco companies, had long sought to create a "reduced-harm" cigarette. Their research explored various heating sources, materials, and nicotine delivery methods. However, these efforts were hampered by internal disagreements, regulatory pressures, and the challenge of creating a product that smokers found satisfying.

4. The Valley's Blind Spot: Morality vs. Innovation

Nothing is a mistake. There’s no win. And no fail. There’s only make.

The Bay Area's Anti-Tobacco Sentiment. Silicon Valley, with its strong anti-tobacco culture, presented a challenging environment for a company selling a nicotine product. The region's history of anti-smoking activism and its focus on health and wellness created a moral dilemma for investors. This made it difficult for Bowen and Monsees to secure funding.

The "Good Guys" Narrative. Bowen and Monsees positioned themselves as outsiders challenging Big Tobacco, framing their product as a public health solution. This narrative appealed to some investors who saw an opportunity to disrupt a harmful industry. However, it also masked the potential for their product to create new problems, particularly among youth.

The Dystopian Future of Tobacco. Monsees jokingly referred to his creation as "the dystopian future of tobacco." This comment foreshadowed the unintended consequences of their innovation, as Juul ultimately contributed to a new wave of nicotine addiction. The focus on innovation and disruption overshadowed ethical considerations.

5. A Deal with the Devil: Altria's Pursuit of Juul

Youth comes but once in a lifetime.

Altria's Dilemma. Facing declining cigarette sales and increasing regulatory pressure, Altria sought new avenues for growth. The rise of e-cigarettes presented both a threat and an opportunity. Altria needed to find a way to compete in this emerging market while navigating the complex ethical and regulatory landscape.

Howard Willard's Ambition. As Altria's CFO and later CEO, Howard Willard spearheaded the company's efforts to enter the e-cigarette market. He saw acquisitions as a faster route to growth than organic innovation. This led to Altria's $10.4 billion acquisition of UST Inc. and its subsequent pursuit of Juul.

The Lure of Juul. Juul's rapid growth and innovative design made it an attractive target for Altria. However, the deal was fraught with risks, including Juul's high valuation, its association with youth vaping, and the potential for regulatory backlash. The deal was a gamble that ultimately backfired, leading to significant financial losses for Altria.

6. The Youth Vaping Epidemic: A Public Health Crisis Ignites

This taboo is for you / Playing with fire / Forbidden fruit / U.B.U / Badge of Honor / It hurts so good / Dare to be me / The rite to be me

Targeting Youth. The tobacco industry has a long history of targeting youth, viewing them as "replacement smokers." This practice, combined with the addictive nature of nicotine, has created a cycle of addiction that spans generations. The rise of e-cigarettes presented a new opportunity to reach young people.

Juul's Marketing Tactics. Juul's marketing strategy, with its sleek design, appealing flavors, and social media presence, proved particularly effective at attracting youth. The company's use of influencers and its presence at music festivals contributed to its popularity among adolescents. This led to a surge in youth vaping rates.

The "Pediatric Disease." David Kessler, former FDA commissioner, characterized the tobacco problem as a "pediatric disease," highlighting the importance of preventing youth initiation. The rise of e-cigarettes threatened to undo decades of progress in reducing youth smoking rates. This created a public health crisis that demanded immediate action.

7. The Fall of an Empire: Juul's Reckoning and Altria's Regret

The world is moving, and a company that contents itself with present accomplishments soon falls behind.

Regulatory Backlash. As youth vaping rates soared, the FDA came under increasing pressure to regulate e-cigarettes. This led to the implementation of the deeming rule, which brought e-cigarettes under the agency's regulatory authority. The FDA also began cracking down on flavored e-cigarettes and marketing practices that targeted youth.

The Altria-Juul Partnership Unravels. The Altria-Juul deal, once seen as a strategic masterstroke, quickly turned into a disaster. Altria's stock plummeted, and the company was forced to write down the value of its Juul investment. The deal became a symbol of corporate hubris and a cautionary tale about the dangers of chasing short-term profits at the expense of long-term sustainability.

The End of an Era. The youth vaping epidemic and the regulatory backlash it triggered marked the end of an era for Juul. The company's rapid rise and its initial success in disrupting the cigarette industry were overshadowed by its role in creating a new generation of nicotine addicts. Juul's story serves as a reminder of the unintended consequences of innovation and the importance of ethical considerations in business.

8. The Aftermath: A Legacy of Addiction and Unanswered Questions

The loveliest trick of the Devil is to persuade you that they don’t exist!

A New Generation Hooked. Despite efforts to curb youth vaping, millions of young people remain addicted to nicotine. The long-term health consequences of vaping are still unknown, raising concerns about a future public health crisis. The story of Juul highlights the challenges of regulating addictive substances and the need for ongoing vigilance to protect public health.

The Unanswered Questions. The Juul saga leaves many questions unanswered. What are the long-term health effects of vaping? How can we effectively prevent youth nicotine addiction? What role should government regulation play in shaping the future of the tobacco industry? These questions demand further research, policy action, and public dialogue.

The Cycle Continues. The story of Juul is a cautionary tale about the seductive power of nicotine and the enduring challenges of regulating the tobacco industry. It is a reminder that the fight against addiction is a never-ending battle, requiring constant vigilance and a commitment to protecting future generations. The industry continues to evolve, and new products will continue to emerge, requiring constant vigilance and a commitment to protecting future generations.

Last updated: April 4, 2025