The Great Displacement

1. Climate change is already displacing millions, reshaping communities

For a long time, climate change was something to be discussed in abstract terms, something that existed in the future tense. That is no longer the case.

Immediate reality. Climate change has shifted from a future threat to a present crisis, forcing people from their homes and altering the fabric of communities across the United States. Extreme weather events like hurricanes, wildfires, and floods are becoming more frequent and severe, causing widespread destruction and displacement.

Scale of impact. Millions of Americans have already experienced climate-related displacement:

• Over 6 million internally displaced in the past decade
• 1 in 3 Americans experienced a weather disaster in 2021 alone
• Projected 20 million climate migrants in the U.S. by 2100

Community transformation. Climate disasters are reshaping entire communities:

• Destruction of historic neighborhoods
• Shifts in local demographics and culture
• Economic upheaval as industries and workers relocate

2. Disasters expose flaws in development and government policies

The disaster did not end once the fire burned out. It took months for the federal government to arrive in Greenville with emergency trailers that could shelter displaced residents.

Unprepared systems. Climate disasters reveal fundamental weaknesses in how communities are built and governed. Disaster response systems often prove inadequate, leaving victims struggling to recover long after the immediate crisis has passed.

Policy failures. Government policies have enabled risky development:

• Subsidized flood insurance in flood-prone areas
• Lax zoning laws in fire-prone regions
• Inadequate building codes for extreme weather

Inequitable impacts. Disasters disproportionately affect:

• Low-income communities
• Communities of color
• Areas with aging infrastructure

3. Housing markets and insurance systems struggle to adapt

There were no winners in such a collapse, but the biggest losers would be the homeowners, the millions of people stuck with homes they would be unable to sell.

Market instability. Climate change is destabilizing housing markets in vulnerable areas, creating potential for widespread economic disruption. Insurance companies and mortgage lenders are struggling to accurately price climate risk.

Insurance challenges:

• Private insurers retreating from high-risk areas
• Government flood insurance program facing insolvency
• Skyrocketing premiums in disaster-prone regions

Property devaluation. As climate risks become more apparent, property values in vulnerable areas may plummet, potentially triggering:

• Widespread negative equity
• Mortgage defaults
• Local economic downturns

4. Vulnerable populations bear the brunt of climate displacement

The clearest proof of this could be seen right next to the new tribal building. The house she had grown up in, the one Wallace had bought when they were children, sat right in the shadow of the Quonset hut, but it had been battered into submission by years and years of wind and flooding.

Unequal impacts. Climate displacement disproportionately affects:

• Low-income communities
• Communities of color
• Indigenous populations
• Elderly and disabled individuals

Compounding disadvantages. These groups often face:

• Limited resources to relocate or rebuild
• Loss of generational wealth tied to property
• Disruption of cultural ties and community support systems

Systemic barriers. Vulnerable populations encounter obstacles in:

• Accessing disaster aid
• Navigating complex insurance claims
• Finding affordable housing in safer areas

5. Managed retreat becomes necessary but challenging to implement

If the government can only spend so much money on flood walls, it might choose to protect wealthier communities with more robust tax bases; if a thousand fire victims scramble for two hundred vacant apartments, the richest two hundred renters are more likely to end up with roofs over their heads.

Inevitable withdrawal. As climate impacts intensify, managed retreat from high-risk areas becomes necessary. However, implementing large-scale relocation faces significant challenges.

Obstacles to managed retreat:

• High costs of buying out and relocating communities
• Political resistance to abandoning developed areas
• Emotional attachment to place and property
• Difficulty in finding suitable relocation sites

Equity concerns. Managed retreat efforts must address:

• Fair compensation for displaced residents
• Preservation of community ties and cultural heritage
• Equitable access to safer housing options

6. Climate migration patterns emerge, reshaping demographics

By the end of the century, climate change will displace more people in the United States than moved during the Great Migration, uprooting millions of people in every region of the country.

Emerging trends. Climate migration is beginning to show discernible patterns, with movement generally:

• Away from coastal areas threatened by sea-level rise
• Out of regions facing increased wildfire or drought risk
• Towards cities with more temperate climates and better resources

Demographic shifts. Climate migration is likely to:

• Accelerate urbanization trends
• Alter the political and cultural landscape of regions
• Create new "climate haven" cities in previously declining areas

Economic implications. Large-scale migration will impact:

• Labor markets and industry distribution
• Housing demand and development patterns
• Municipal tax bases and public services

7. Water scarcity threatens the American West's expansion

If the neighborhood had been inside a flood zone, the National Flood Insurance Program would have paid out claims to homeowners, and the county might have arrived later to offer buyouts to the remaining residents, but the residents of Bear Creek received neither flood insurance payments nor buyout offers.

Western water crisis. Prolonged drought and overallocation of water resources are challenging the sustainability of development in the American West.

Agricultural impacts:

• Crop failures and reduced yields
• Abandonment of farmland
• Conflicts over water rights between farmers and cities

Urban challenges:

• Water rationing and usage restrictions
• Limits on new development
• Potential for "water refugees" from unsustainable areas

Long-term consequences. The water crisis may force a fundamental reconsideration of:

• Where people can live in the West
• The viability of water-intensive industries
• The balance between urban, agricultural, and environmental water needs

8. Rising seas jeopardize coastal real estate markets

As if this political dynamic were not enough, two idiosyncratic state laws further constrained housing supply. The first law was Proposition 13, a 1978 ballot initiative that froze residential property taxes for the entire state and in turn eliminated incentives to build new housing.

Coastal property risk. Sea-level rise threatens trillions of dollars in coastal real estate value. As flooding becomes more frequent and severe, many coastal properties may become uninsurable and unmortgageable.

Market destabilization:

• Declining property values in flood-prone areas
• Potential for widespread negative equity
• Risk of localized housing market collapses

Ripple effects. Coastal property devaluation could impact:

• Municipal tax bases and public services
• Regional economies dependent on coastal development
• The broader financial system through mortgage-backed securities

9. Climate change will force a rethinking of property rights and housing

The climate crisis is coming for everyone.

Paradigm shift. Climate change challenges fundamental assumptions about property rights and the role of government in housing.

Emerging questions:

• Should people have the right to rebuild in high-risk areas?
• Who should bear the cost of climate adaptation?
• How can we ensure equitable access to safe housing?

Policy implications. Climate realities may necessitate:

• Stricter zoning and building codes in vulnerable areas
• Government-led managed retreat programs
• New models of property ownership and risk-sharing

10. Adaptation requires massive investment and policy changes

After all, there is only one thing they all have in common: they are moving.

Scale of challenge. Adapting to climate change will require unprecedented levels of investment and coordination across all levels of government and the private sector.

Key areas for investment:

• Infrastructure hardening and resilience
• Flood protection and stormwater management
• Wildfire prevention and forest management
• Water conservation and distribution systems

Policy reforms needed:

• Updated building codes and zoning laws
• Reformed disaster insurance programs
• Improved climate risk disclosure requirements
• New funding mechanisms for adaptation projects

11. The future demands a universal guarantee of shelter

Even if we do manage to phase out fossil fuels and stop planetary warming, though, the most difficult and agonizing questions will remain unanswered. How do we adapt to the grave new world of climate change, and who should bear the burden of that adaptation?

Fundamental right. As climate change threatens millions with displacement, ensuring universal access to safe housing becomes a moral and practical imperative.

Potential approaches:

• Expanded public housing programs
• Government-backed climate displacement insurance
• Relocation assistance for climate migrants
• International cooperation on climate refugee resettlement

Societal shift. Guaranteeing shelter in the face of climate change requires:

• Rethinking the role of government in housing provision
• Challenging notions of individual responsibility for climate risk
• Developing new models of community and property ownership

Last updated: October 1, 2024