The Journey of Humanity

1. For most of history, humanity was trapped in a cycle of stagnation and subsistence.

for most of human existence, from the emergence of Homo sapiens as a distinct species nearly 300,000 years ago, the basic thrust of human life was remarkably similar to that of a squirrel, defined by the pursuit of survival and reproduction.

A long economic ice age. For hundreds of thousands of years, human life was characterized by subsistence living, high mortality rates, and little long-term improvement in material well-being. Despite innovations like fire, tools, and agriculture, any temporary gains in resources were quickly offset by population growth, trapping societies in a cycle where living standards hovered near the minimum necessary for survival. This period, known as the Malthusian epoch, meant that life was often "nasty, brutish, and short."

The Malthusian trap. This stagnation was governed by a simple mechanism: when technological or environmental improvements increased food or resources, populations grew due to higher birth rates and lower death rates. However, since land and resources were limited, this growth eventually diluted the gains, pushing living standards back down to subsistence levels.

• Technological progress led primarily to larger populations, not richer ones.
• Living conditions for an English farmer in 1600 were similar to those of an Egyptian farmer 5,000 years ago.
• Life expectancy rarely exceeded forty years, and child mortality was extremely high.

Temporary swings, no lasting change. Events like the Black Death or the introduction of new crops like the potato caused dramatic population swings and temporary shifts in living standards. However, the Malthusian mechanism always reasserted itself, returning societies to the subsistence equilibrium in the long run. This persistent poverty trap defined the human experience for the vast majority of our history.

2. Beneath the surface, technological progress and population dynamics were building towards a tipping point.

the fundamental triggers of this transformation were operating from the emergence of the human species, gaining momentum over the entire course of our history.

Hidden engines of change. While living standards stagnated, two interconnected forces were constantly at work: technological development and population dynamics. Technological advancements, from stone tools to agriculture, allowed populations to grow and adapt to new environments. Larger populations, in turn, increased the pool of potential innovators and the demand for new technologies, creating a positive feedback loop.

A reinforcing cycle. This cycle, operating relentlessly throughout the Malthusian epoch, gradually accelerated the pace of innovation.

• Early humans developed sophisticated tools and mastered fire, enabling survival and population growth.
• The Agricultural Revolution allowed for sedentary life and denser populations, fostering specialization and further innovation (writing, metallurgy, architecture).
• Larger, denser societies facilitated the exchange of ideas and the emergence of a class dedicated to knowledge creation.

Gathering momentum. Like water heating in a kettle, this process was largely invisible on the surface of living standards but was building energy. The rate of technological change, though slow by modern standards, was increasing over millennia. This intensifying interplay between technology and population size/composition was the underlying force that would eventually lead to a dramatic phase transition, breaking the chains of the Malthusian trap.

3. The Industrial Revolution dramatically accelerated technology, increasing the demand for human capital.

this transformation of education was more significant and lasting than the mechanisation of manufacturing, for it transformed education’s very purpose – and brought it for the first time to the masses.

An explosion of innovation. Starting in the 18th century, particularly in Britain, the pace of technological development surged to unprecedented levels. This period, known as the Industrial Revolution, saw inventions like the steam engine, automated textile machinery, and new methods for producing iron and steel, transforming production, transportation, and communication.

Shift to human capital. Crucially, this accelerating technological change increased the demand for a new kind of labor: workers with general skills like literacy, numeracy, and adaptability, rather than just specific craft skills or brute strength.

• Early industrial tasks could be done by the illiterate, but later phases required more educated workers.
• This growing demand for skills transformed the purpose of education from primarily cultural or religious to economically essential.
• Industrialists, initially hesitant, began lobbying for public education to ensure a skilled workforce.

The rise of mass education. Governments responded by establishing universal primary education systems. This was a seismic shift, making education accessible to the masses for the first time in history. This investment in human capital was a critical factor in the ongoing process of development, more fundamental than the machines themselves.

4. Rising education and changing gender roles triggered the Demographic Transition, breaking the Malthusian trap.

It was this decline in fertility that prised open the jaws of the Malthusian trap, and heralded the birth of the modern era of sustained growth.

Shattering the Malthusian mechanism. In the late 19th century, developed nations experienced a dramatic and historically unprecedented decline in birth rates, known as the Demographic Transition. This broke the link between rising income and population growth, allowing technological progress to translate into sustained improvements in living standards.

The quantity-quality trade-off. The primary driver of this fertility decline was the increasing return on investing in children's human capital (education, skills, health).

• As technology advanced, educated workers earned significantly more than uneducated ones.
• Parents faced a trade-off: have many children with limited investment per child, or fewer children with greater investment per child.
• The rising economic benefits of education shifted the balance towards "quality" over "quantity."

Reinforcing factors. Several other changes reinforced this shift:

• Increased life expectancy and lower child mortality meant the return on educational investment lasted longer.
• The decline in child labor reduced the economic benefit of having many children as a source of income.
• The narrowing gender wage gap increased the opportunity cost of women's time spent on child-rearing, further incentivizing smaller families.

This fundamental change in family decision-making, driven by the economic logic of a technologically dynamic world, was the key that unlocked the door to sustained economic growth.

5. Escaping stagnation led to unprecedented, sustained growth and prosperity.

Perceived from a distance, then, the main trend of the past two centuries has been the transition from a world in which most people were illiterate and indigent farmers who toiled incessantly, ate like paupers, and bore large numbers of children only to watch nearly half of them die before reaching adulthood, to one in which most of the world’s population bears children they can expect will outlive them...

A radical transformation. The past two centuries, since the onset of the Demographic Transition in parts of the world, represent a blink of an eye in human history but have seen a dramatic and sustained improvement in living standards. For the first time, technological progress led to lasting increases in wealth, health, and education, rather than being absorbed by population growth.

Soaring quality of life. Key indicators show the magnitude of this change:

• Global average income per capita has increased fourteen-fold.
• Global life expectancy has more than doubled, from around 30-40 years to over 70.
• Infant mortality rates have plummeted.
• Access to education, clean water, electricity, and communication technologies (telephone, internet) has expanded dramatically.

Beyond material wealth. This era of growth also brought less tangible benefits, such as reduced child labor, less strenuous occupations, and vastly increased access to information, entertainment, and culture (radio, television, film). While periods of immense suffering like world wars and depressions occurred, the overall trajectory of human well-being, viewed over the long term, has been one of remarkable and persistent ascent.

6. This growth was uneven, creating vast global inequality.

when prosperity skyrocketed in recent centuries, it did so only in some parts of the world, triggering a second major transformation unique to our species: the emergence of immense inequality across societies.

The great divergence. While some parts of the world, primarily Western Europe and its offshoots, experienced the transition to sustained growth starting in the 19th century, others lagged behind, often until the latter half of the 20th century. This differential timing created a massive gap in living standards between nations.

Symptoms of disparity. This inequality is visible in stark contrasts across the globe:

• Vast differences in income per capita.
• Huge disparities in life expectancy and infant mortality.
• Unequal access to education, electricity, and internet services.
• Desperate migration flows from poorer to richer regions.

Beyond the surface. While differences in technology and human capital are the immediate causes of this gap, they are merely symptoms. Understanding the roots of this inequality requires looking deeper than these proximate factors to the underlying forces that determined why some nations developed faster than others.

The puzzle of unevenness. The central mystery of inequality is not just that gaps exist, but why they emerged so dramatically in the past two centuries and why some nations have been unable to catch up despite the potential for technology diffusion. This points to persistent, deep-rooted factors influencing the pace of development.

7. Deep-rooted factors like institutions and culture explain why some nations prospered earlier.

an understanding of what drives economic development globally would be fragile and incomplete unless it could reflect the primary driving forces behind the entire process of development, rather than merely over isolated periods.

Beyond the obvious. Just as a green lawn isn't just about watering and mowing, national prosperity isn't solely about technology and capital. These are proximate factors. The true drivers lie deeper, in the fundamental characteristics of societies that influence their ability to innovate, accumulate capital, and adapt.

Underlying causes. The book argues that institutions and culture are critical deep-rooted factors:

• Institutions: Rules, laws, and norms governing society (property rights, rule of law, political systems). Inclusive institutions that protect rights and encourage participation foster growth, while extractive institutions that benefit a narrow elite hinder it.
• Culture: Shared values, beliefs, and preferences transmitted across generations (trust, future orientation, work ethic, gender roles). Certain cultural traits are more conducive to economic development.

The interplay of forces. Institutions and culture are not static; they evolve and interact. They can either accelerate or impede the great cogs of technological progress and population dynamics, determining the timing and pace of a nation's escape from the Malthusian trap and its trajectory in the age of growth. Understanding these underlying forces is essential for deciphering the mystery of inequality.

8. Geography played a crucial role in shaping institutions and cultural traits conducive to growth.

Geographical characteristics are therefore some of the ultimate forces that set the evolution of culture, institutions and productivity in motion.

The shadow of the land. Geography is not just about resources or climate; it's a fundamental shaper of societies, influencing institutions and culture in profound ways. Its effects are often indirect but long-lasting.

Shaping institutions:

• Europe's fragmented landscape (mountains, rivers, coastlines) fostered political competition among states, encouraging innovation and institutional adaptation (the "European Miracle").
• Tropical climates and fertile soil suitable for large plantations in the Americas led to concentrated land ownership and extractive institutions like slavery.
• The presence of disease vectors like the tsetse fly hindered livestock adoption and development in parts of Africa.

Molding culture:

• Suitability of land for high-yield crops fostered a more future-oriented mindset.
• Suitability for plough agriculture contributed to gendered divisions of labor and biases against women in the workforce.
• Climatic volatility influenced attitudes towards risk and loss aversion.

These geographically rooted differences in institutions and culture created varying environments for the interplay of technology and population, contributing significantly to the uneven pace of development across the globe.

9. Human diversity, rooted in the "Out of Africa" migration, is a fundamental driver of development.

This expansion of anatomically modern humans from the cradle of humankind in Africa has imparted a deep and indelible mark on the worldwide variation in the degree of diversity – cultural, linguistic, behavioural and physical – across populations.

The deepest roots. The journey of humanity began in Africa, and the subsequent migration across the globe, starting tens of thousands of years ago, profoundly shaped the diversity of human populations. This "Out of Africa" migration, characterized by a serial founder effect, meant that diversity decreased with migratory distance from East Africa.

A persistent legacy. This prehistoric migration pattern created a lasting variation in the level of diversity across societies worldwide. This diversity encompasses genetic, physical, cultural, linguistic, and behavioral traits. Crucially, this level of diversity, determined long before modern economic development, acts as a fundamental, deep-rooted factor influencing prosperity.

Measuring the unmeasurable. While directly measuring all facets of diversity is complex, the migratory distance from East Africa serves as a powerful proxy. Populations whose ancestors traveled shorter distances from Africa tend to be more diverse than those whose ancestors traveled further. This allows researchers to estimate the historical level of diversity in different regions.

This deep historical factor, set in motion by the earliest movements of Homo sapiens, has had a persistent influence on the trajectory of societies throughout history, contributing to the mystery of inequality today.

10. Understanding these deep historical forces is key to addressing modern inequality and ensuring sustainable growth.

Recognising our roots will permit us to participate in the design of our futures.

The grip of the past. The vast inequalities observed today are not random or solely due to recent policies. They are deeply rooted in millennia-long processes shaped by geography, institutions, culture, and human diversity originating from the earliest human migrations. Ignoring these fundamental factors leads to ineffective development strategies.

Dual nature of diversity. Diversity, while a source of innovation and adaptation, can also lead to conflict and hinder social cohesion. Geography has shaped institutions and cultures that either mitigate or exacerbate these effects. The optimal level of diversity for prosperity has shifted over time, favoring more diverse societies in the modern era of rapid technological change.

Shaping the future. While the past's influence is strong, it is not destiny. Understanding these deep roots empowers us to design targeted policies:

• Promote tolerance and social cohesion in highly diverse societies.
• Encourage openness to new ideas and challenge tradition in homogeneous societies.
• Invest in education and human capital globally.
• Foster gender equality and access to contraceptives to manage population growth sustainably.

By addressing the root causes of inequality and leveraging the forces that have driven human progress – innovation, human capital, and managed diversity – humanity can strive for a more prosperous, equitable, and sustainable future, navigating the challenges of climate change and ensuring the journey continues.

Last updated: May 15, 2025