The March Of Folly

1. Governments Often Pursue Policies Against Their Own Interests

A phenomenon noticeable throughout history regardless of place or period is the pursuit by governments of policies contrary to their own interests.

Irrationality in Power. History is replete with examples of governments acting against their own self-interest, a pattern that transcends time and geography. This isn't due to a lack of intelligence, but rather a failure to apply reason and common sense to governance.

• Examples include the Trojan's acceptance of the wooden horse, George III's coercion of the American colonies, and Hitler's invasion of Russia.
• These actions often stem from a combination of factors, including misjudgment, hubris, and a failure to learn from past mistakes.

Defining Folly. Folly, in this context, is not simply a mistake but a policy that is counterproductive to the welfare of the state or its people. It is characterized by a disregard for reason, experience, and available information.

• To qualify as folly, a policy must be recognized as counterproductive by contemporaries, have a feasible alternative, and be the product of a group, not just an individual.
• Folly is not limited to any particular type of regime, nation, or class; it is a universal human failing.

Consequences of Folly. Misgovernment, including folly, has a far greater impact than individual errors, affecting the lives of many. It can lead to economic ruin, social unrest, and even the collapse of empires.

• The French Revolution, for example, quickly reverted to autocracy due to the inability of revolutionary regimes to maintain order.
• The need for safeguards against folly is paramount, yet history shows that such safeguards are rarely effective.

2. Wooden-Headedness and Self-Deception are Major Causes of Folly

Wooden-headedness, the source of self-deception, is a factor that plays a remarkably large role in government.

Fixed Notions. Wooden-headedness is the tendency to assess situations based on preconceived notions, ignoring or rejecting any contrary evidence. It is acting according to wish rather than allowing oneself to be deflected by facts.

• Philip II of Spain is cited as a prime example, never wavering in his belief in the excellence of his policies despite repeated failures.
• Plan 17, the French war plan of 1914, is another example, where the French ignored evidence of German troop deployment to maintain their fixed belief in a direct offensive.

Refusal to Learn. Wooden-headedness also manifests as a refusal to learn from experience. Rulers often repeat the same mistakes, even when the negative consequences are obvious.

• Medieval rulers, for example, repeatedly devalued currency despite the economic disruption it caused.
• Military campaigns that depended on living off hostile countries often ran into starvation, yet were regularly undertaken.

Suicidal Folly. In the modern era, wooden-headedness can lead to even more catastrophic outcomes. The refusal of superpowers to divest themselves of nuclear weapons is a prime example of this self-destructive tendency.

• The refusal to benefit from experience and the inability to adjust to changing circumstances are hallmarks of folly.
• The case of Philip III, who died from overheating because the functionary to remove the brazier could not be found, illustrates the absurdity of wooden-headedness.

3. The Trojan Horse: A Classic Example of Folly in Action

The most famous story of the Western world, the prototype of all tales of human conflict, the epic that belongs to all people and all times since—and even before—literacy began, contains the legend, with or without some vestige of historical foundation, of the Wooden Horse.

The Story's Enduring Power. The tale of the Trojan Horse, a central episode in the Trojan War, has resonated through centuries, inspiring countless works of art and literature. It serves as a timeless reminder of human fallibility and the dangers of deception.

• The story first appears in the Odyssey, later elaborated upon by Virgil in the Aeneid.
• The addition of Laocoon, who warns against the horse, highlights the importance of heeding warnings.

The Trojans' Fatal Choice. Despite clear warnings and a feasible alternative, the Trojans chose to bring the wooden horse within their walls, a decision that led to their downfall.

• The Trojans were divided in their opinions, with some urging caution and others advocating for the horse's acceptance.
• The intervention of the serpents, which killed Laocoon, swayed the Trojans to believe the horse was a sacred offering.

Folly and Free Will. The story of the Trojan Horse is not simply a tale of fate but a demonstration of the consequences of free choice. The Trojans, despite warnings, chose to ignore reason and embrace deception.

• The story highlights the human tendency to be swayed by emotion and superstition, even in the face of clear evidence.
• The Wooden Horse serves as a prototype of policy pursued contrary to self-interest, a pattern that has repeated itself throughout history.

4. Renaissance Popes: A Case Study in Perverse Misgovernment

Over a period of sixty years, from roughly 1470 to 1530, the secular spirit of the age was exemplified in a succession of six popes...who carried it to an excess of venality, amorality, avarice, and spectacularly calamitous power politics.

Secularization of the Papacy. The Renaissance popes, driven by personal ambition and a desire for worldly power, transformed the Papacy into a secular institution. They engaged in political intrigue, nepotism, and the pursuit of wealth, neglecting their spiritual duties.

• Sixtus IV, Innocent VIII, Alexander VI, Julius II, Leo X, and Clement VII are all examples of popes who prioritized personal gain over the welfare of the Church.
• Their actions led to widespread corruption, moral decay, and a growing sense of disillusionment among the faithful.

Ignoring the Cry for Reform. Despite widespread calls for reform, the Renaissance popes refused to address the deep-seated problems within the Church. They feared any challenge to their authority and were unwilling to relinquish their lucrative practices.

• The sale of indulgences, simony, and other abuses became rampant, further alienating the faithful.
• The popes' refusal to acknowledge the need for reform ultimately led to the Protestant Reformation.

Political Folly. The popes' involvement in the temporal politics of Italy, marked by shifting alliances and betrayals, further weakened the Papacy and contributed to the instability of the region.

• They lacked the military resources to be decisive and often became pawns in the power struggles of France, Spain, and the Hapsburg Empire.
• Their actions ultimately undermined the unity of Christendom and left Italy vulnerable to foreign domination.

5. The British Lost America Through Stubbornness and Misjudgment

Why did successive ministries of George III insist on coercing rather than conciliating the American colonies though repeatedly advised by many counselors that the harm done must be greater than any possible gain?

Taxation Without Representation. The British government's insistence on taxing the American colonies without their consent was a major source of conflict. This policy, driven by a desire for revenue and a belief in parliamentary supremacy, ignored the colonists' deeply held principles of self-governance.

• The Stamp Act, the Townshend Acts, and the Tea Act were all met with fierce resistance and ultimately failed to achieve their intended purpose.
• The British government's refusal to acknowledge the colonists' grievances fueled resentment and ultimately led to rebellion.

Underestimation of the Colonists. The British consistently underestimated the colonists' resolve, their capacity for self-organization, and their willingness to fight for their liberties. They viewed the Americans as unruly subjects who needed to be controlled, rather than as equals with legitimate grievances.

• The British military's disdain for colonial soldiers and their failure to understand the nature of guerrilla warfare contributed to their ultimate defeat.
• The belief that a few redcoats could easily subdue the colonies proved to be a fatal miscalculation.

Missed Opportunities for Conciliation. The British government repeatedly ignored opportunities for compromise and reconciliation, choosing instead to pursue a course of coercion and confrontation.

• The rejection of colonial petitions, the imposition of punitive measures, and the failure to address the colonists' concerns all contributed to the growing divide.
• The British government's inability to see the situation from the colonists' perspective ultimately led to the loss of their American colonies.

6. America's Vietnam Folly: A Tragedy of Good Intentions Gone Wrong

America Betrays Herself in Vietnam

The Domino Theory and Cold War Ideology. The American intervention in Vietnam was driven by the domino theory, the belief that if one country fell to Communism, others would follow. This fear, fueled by the Cold War, led to a commitment to containing Communism at all costs.

• The United States viewed the conflict in Vietnam as part of a larger global struggle against Soviet and Chinese expansionism.
• This ideological framework blinded policymakers to the unique circumstances of the Vietnamese conflict and the strength of Vietnamese nationalism.

Underestimation of the Enemy. The United States consistently underestimated the Viet Cong's and North Vietnam's determination, their capacity for guerrilla warfare, and their ability to endure hardship.

• The American military, focused on conventional warfare, struggled to adapt to the unconventional tactics of the enemy.
• The belief that superior firepower and technology would guarantee victory proved to be a fatal miscalculation.

Ignoring the Human Cost. The American government, in its pursuit of a strategic objective, often ignored the human cost of the war, both for the Vietnamese people and for American soldiers.

• The use of napalm, defoliation, and other destructive tactics alienated the Vietnamese population and fueled anti-war sentiment at home.
• The war became increasingly unpopular as casualties mounted and the prospect of victory seemed increasingly remote.

7. Folly is a Product of Power and a Refusal to Learn from Experience

A principle that emerges in the cases so far mentioned is that folly is a child of power.

Power and Self-Deception. Power often breeds folly by creating a sense of invincibility and a tendency to ignore or dismiss dissenting voices. Those in power may become convinced of their own righteousness and lose touch with reality.

• The Renaissance popes, the British ministers of George III, and the American policymakers in Vietnam all exhibited this tendency.
• The belief that power can overcome any obstacle often leads to a disregard for reason and a pursuit of unattainable goals.

The Importance of Learning from Experience. The ability to learn from past mistakes is essential for effective governance. Folly often arises from a refusal to acknowledge errors and a stubborn adherence to failed policies.

• The Treaty of Versailles after World War I, for example, was a clear example of a failure to learn from the past, leading to further conflict.
• The post-World War II occupation of Japan, in contrast, demonstrated the possibility of learning from experience and implementing wise policies.

The Need for Humility and Self-Reflection. To avoid folly, leaders must cultivate humility, be open to dissenting opinions, and be willing to re-evaluate their policies in light of new information.

• The example of Solon of Athens, who voluntarily went into exile to allow his laws to take effect, highlights the importance of self-awareness and a lack of overriding personal ambition.
• The words of Count Axel Oxenstierna, "Know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed," serve as a reminder of the need for caution and humility in the exercise of power.

Last updated: January 14, 2025