The New Digital Age

1. The Internet Will Empower and Challenge Citizens Globally

The Internet is among the few things humans have built that they don't truly understand.

Global connectivity will reshape societies. As billions more people come online in the next decade, they will gain unprecedented access to information, opportunities, and each other. This will empower individuals, especially in developing countries, to improve their lives through education, economic opportunities, and participation in civic affairs. However, it will also introduce new challenges around privacy, security, and the potential for both liberation and oppression.

The digital divide will persist but evolve. While connectivity will spread widely, a "digital caste system" will endure:

• Wealthy elites: Largely insulated from negative effects
• Middle class: Primary drivers of innovation and change
• Newly connected billions: Greatest benefits but also greatest risks

Technology's impact will be transformative but complex. The Internet and mobile devices will:

• Enable economic growth and innovation
• Facilitate political organizing and activism
• Create new vulnerabilities to surveillance and cyber attacks
• Reshape social norms and cultural values

2. Virtual and Physical Identities Will Merge, Raising Privacy Concerns

We are what we tweet.

Online and offline identities will blur. As people conduct more of their lives online, their virtual identities will become as important as their physical ones. This convergence will have profound implications:

• Personal data will be more valuable and vulnerable
• Reputation management will be critical
• Privacy will be harder to maintain

The permanence of data will be a double-edged sword. Everything posted online will leave a permanent, searchable record:

• Positive: Accountability for bad behavior
• Negative: Youthful mistakes haunt people forever
• New industry: Reputation management services

Privacy will require constant vigilance. To protect privacy, individuals will need to:

• Carefully manage their online presence
• Use encryption and security tools
• Advocate for privacy protections
• Accept some loss of privacy as inevitable

3. States Will Adapt Their Policies for the Physical and Virtual Worlds

States will have to practice two foreign policies and two domestic policies—one for the virtual world and one for the physical world—and these policies may appear contradictory.

Governments will struggle to control cyberspace. The Internet's decentralized nature challenges state power, but governments will attempt to assert control through:

• Censorship and filtering
• Surveillance of citizens
• Cyber warfare capabilities

A "balkanization" of the Internet may occur. Some states may create national intranets or impose strict controls:

• China's Great Firewall
• Iran's "halal Internet"
• Russia's proposed "sovereign Internet"

Virtual and physical policies may diverge. States may:

• Allow more dissent online while cracking down physically
• Engage in cyber attacks against countries they wouldn't attack militarily
• Form new alliances based on shared approaches to Internet governance

4. The Future of Conflict Will Involve Both Cyber and Physical Warfare

Every state, from the least democratic to the most, may fight the growth of device-to-device communication.

Cyber warfare will become a key battlefield. States and non-state actors will increasingly use cyber attacks for:

• Espionage and intelligence gathering
• Disrupting critical infrastructure
• Economic warfare

Automated warfare will transform combat. The rise of drones, robots, and AI in warfare will:

• Reduce military casualties
• Enable more precise targeting
• Raise ethical questions about autonomous weapons

Information warfare will intensify. Conflicts will have a significant online component:

• Propaganda and disinformation campaigns
• Hacking and leaking sensitive information
• Mobilizing supporters through social media

New vulnerabilities will emerge. Critical systems will face threats from:

• State-sponsored hackers
• Terrorist groups
• Criminal organizations

5. Revolutions Will Start Faster but Face New Challenges to Succeed

Technology alone is no panacea for the world's ills, yet smart uses of technology can make a world of difference.

Technology will accelerate revolutionary movements. Social media and mobile devices will enable:

• Rapid organization of protests
• Wider dissemination of information
• Greater participation by citizens

Virtual activism may not translate to lasting change. Challenges include:

• "Slacktivism" replacing sustained engagement
• Difficulty transitioning from online to offline organizing
• Lack of experienced leadership in rapid movements

States will adapt to counter digital revolutions. Governments may:

• Use the same tools to monitor and suppress dissent
• Shut down internet access during unrest
• Spread misinformation to confuse and divide opponents

Successful movements will blend online and offline strategies. Keys to success:

• Building lasting organizational structures
• Developing experienced leadership
• Maintaining momentum beyond initial protests

6. Terrorism Will Evolve with Technology, Becoming More Sophisticated

What gives terror groups in the future an edge may not be their members' willingness to die for the cause; it might be how good their command of technology is.

Terrorists will exploit new technologies. Future threats may include:

• Drone attacks in urban areas
• Cyber attacks on critical infrastructure
• Sophisticated online recruitment and radicalization

Counterterrorism will face new challenges. Law enforcement and intelligence agencies will need to:

• Monitor vast amounts of online communications
• Defend against cyber attacks
• Counter extremist narratives online

Privacy and security trade-offs will intensify. Societies will debate:

• Extent of government surveillance powers
• Encryption and anonymity tools
• Balancing civil liberties with security needs

Technology may also aid in combating terrorism. Potential benefits include:

• Better threat detection through data analysis
• Improved coordination between agencies
• Tools to counter extremist propaganda online

7. Reconstruction Efforts Will Leverage Connectivity for Faster Recovery

Connectivity alone cannot revert a failed state, but it can drastically improve the situation for its citizens.

Communication networks will be a top priority. In post-conflict or disaster zones:

• Restoring mobile and internet access will be crucial
• Telecom companies may lead reconstruction efforts
• Satellite and mesh networks can provide temporary connectivity

Digital tools will aid recovery efforts. Technology can enable:

• Coordinating aid distribution
• Reuniting separated families
• Providing remote education and healthcare
• Facilitating economic recovery through mobile banking

Virtual institutions can maintain continuity. Cloud-based government services can:

• Preserve essential records and functions
• Enable remote operation if physical infrastructure is damaged
• Facilitate faster restoration of normal governance

Challenges will remain. Digital divides may persist:

• Not all citizens will have equal access to technology
• Digital skills training will be necessary
• Cyber security will be crucial to prevent exploitation

Last updated: August 16, 2024