The New Silk Roads

1. The New Silk Roads are reshaping global power dynamics

We are living in the Asian century already, a time when the movement of global gross domestic product (GDP) from the developed economies of the West to those of the East is taking place on an astonishing scale—and at astonishing speed.

Economic shift. The center of economic gravity is rapidly shifting from West to East. By 2050, Asia could account for over 50% of global GDP, reclaiming the dominant economic position it held 300 years ago. This transformation is driven by China's meteoric rise and the rapid growth of other Asian economies like India.

Geopolitical realignment. As economic power shifts, so does geopolitical influence. Countries along the New Silk Roads are forging closer ties through initiatives like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Eurasian Economic Union. The US and Europe are struggling to maintain their global leadership roles as Asian powers become more assertive.

Cultural impact. The rise of Asia is also reshaping global culture and values. As countries like China gain confidence, they are promoting alternative models of development and governance that challenge Western liberal democracy. This "Asia-centric" worldview is gaining traction in many developing countries.

2. China's Belt and Road Initiative is transforming Eurasia

The Belt and Road Initiative, said President Xi, benefits all by creating a community "with a shared future for humanity."

Massive infrastructure investments. China has committed nearly $1 trillion to infrastructure projects across Eurasia and Africa. These include railways, ports, pipelines, and digital networks that are physically reconnecting the Eurasian landmass. Key projects include:

• The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor ($62 billion)
• A high-speed rail network across Southeast Asia
• Ports in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Greece

Economic integration. The BRI aims to boost trade and economic cooperation across Eurasia. China is promoting greater use of the renminbi, harmonizing regulations, and reducing trade barriers. This is creating new economic corridors and reshaping global supply chains.

Strategic influence. While officially an economic initiative, the BRI gives China greater strategic influence across Eurasia. Host countries become more economically dependent on China, giving Beijing political leverage. The initiative also secures China's access to resources and trade routes.

3. The US is struggling to adapt to the changing world order

"We're America, Bitch." That's the Trump Doctrine.

Inward turn. Under President Trump, the US has adopted an "America First" approach, withdrawing from international agreements and imposing tariffs on allies and rivals alike. This has undermined US global leadership and created a vacuum that China and others are filling.

Military focus. The US remains focused on maintaining military supremacy, especially in the Indo-Pacific. However, it lacks a coherent economic strategy to counter China's growing influence. Efforts like the "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" concept have gained little traction.

Declining soft power. America's soft power and moral authority have been damaged by domestic political dysfunction, the mishandling of issues like immigration, and the undermining of democratic norms. Many countries now see the US as an unreliable partner.

4. Russia and Iran are gaining influence in the Middle East

Russia and China are cosying up to each other and it's a lethal combination if they're together.

Russian resurgence. Russia has reasserted itself as a major player in the Middle East through its military intervention in Syria and diplomatic outreach to countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Moscow is positioning itself as a power broker in the region.

Iran's expanding role. Despite US sanctions, Iran has expanded its influence across the region through proxies and allies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Tehran is also deepening ties with Russia and China as a counterweight to US pressure.

Shifting alliances. Traditional US allies like Turkey and Saudi Arabia are hedging their bets by improving relations with Russia and China. This is creating a more complex, multipolar regional order that the US is struggling to navigate.

5. Infrastructure investments are creating new economic corridors

China inherently presents a fundamental challenge to American strategy.

Eurasian connectivity. New railways, roads, and energy pipelines are physically reconnecting the Eurasian landmass, reviving ancient trade routes. Key projects include:

• The Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway linking Central Asia to Europe
• The China-Europe Railway Express network
• The TAPI natural gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to India

Maritime trade routes. China is investing heavily in ports along the Indian Ocean and Mediterranean to secure its maritime trade routes. This "String of Pearls" strategy is causing concern in India and the US.

Digital Silk Road. China is also building digital infrastructure across Eurasia, including 5G networks, data centers, and e-commerce platforms. This could give Beijing significant control over the region's digital ecosystem.

6. Debt and environmental concerns shadow Belt and Road projects

We Chinese often say that if you want to get rich, build roads first.

Debt trap fears. Critics argue that China is saddling developing countries with unsustainable debt through BRI projects. Cases like Sri Lanka's Hambantota port, which was leased to China after Sri Lanka struggled with loan payments, have fueled these concerns.

Environmental impact. Many BRI projects, especially coal-fired power plants and large-scale dams, have significant environmental costs. There are growing calls for China to adopt stricter environmental standards for overseas projects.

Project viability. Some BRI projects have been criticized for poor planning and questionable economic viability. Countries like Malaysia have cancelled or renegotiated projects due to concerns over costs and corruption.

7. Technology and AI are critical to future geopolitical competition

China is aggressively executing a thoroughly designed vision for AI.

AI arms race. China has made rapid advances in artificial intelligence and aims to become the world leader by 2030. The US sees this as a major strategic threat, leading to growing techno-nationalism and efforts to restrict China's access to advanced technologies.

Digital authoritarianism. China is exporting its model of internet control and surveillance to other countries along the New Silk Roads. This is enabling the spread of "digital authoritarianism" and challenging Western notions of internet freedom.

Quantum computing and 5G. The race to develop quantum computing and control 5G networks is becoming a key arena of great power competition. These technologies will have far-reaching implications for economic competitiveness and national security.

8. The West is becoming less relevant as Asia rises

The West's time has passed.

Declining influence. Western countries are losing their ability to shape global events and norms as Asian powers become more assertive. This is evident in areas like trade, where Asian-led initiatives like RCEP are eclipsing Western-led agreements.

Identity crisis. Many Western countries are grappling with domestic political turmoil and a crisis of confidence in liberal democracy. This inward focus is further diminishing their global influence.

Shifting centers of innovation. Asia is increasingly driving global innovation in areas like e-commerce, fintech, and renewable energy. Cities like Shenzhen and Bangalore are challenging Silicon Valley's dominance.

9. Cooperation and rivalry coexist along the New Silk Roads

Relations with China have taken a BIG leap forward.

Complex interdependence. Countries along the New Silk Roads are deepening economic ties while often remaining strategic rivals. This creates a complex web of cooperation and competition.

Regional integration. Initiatives like the Eurasian Economic Union and ASEAN are promoting greater regional integration. However, historical rivalries and territorial disputes continue to hinder cooperation in many areas.

Great power competition. The US, China, Russia, and India are vying for influence across Eurasia. This is creating both opportunities and challenges for smaller countries as they navigate between competing powers.

10. The future world order will be multipolar and Asia-centric

A whole new world is coming, one that seems unfamiliar to most but also in turns exotic and worrying.

Rise of the Rest. The emerging world order will be characterized by multiple centers of power, with countries like India, Indonesia, and Turkey playing increasingly important roles alongside China and the US.

Asian values. As Asia rises, its cultural and political values will exert greater influence on global norms and institutions. This could challenge Western-centric notions of human rights, democracy, and international order.

Uncertain transition. The shift to a multipolar, Asia-centric world order is likely to be turbulent. Managing this transition peacefully will be one of the great challenges of the 21st century.

Last updated: September 29, 2024