The Psychology of Conspiracy Theories

1. Conspiracy Theories: Normal Reactions to Fear and Uncertainty

Conspiracy theories are a natural defensive reaction to feelings of uncertainty and fear, blaming dissimilar outgroups for the distressing circumstances that one has to deal with.

Fear and uncertainty are triggers. Conspiracy theories aren't just random ideas; they're often a response to feeling scared and unsure. When big, unsettling events happen, people naturally try to make sense of them. This can lead to blaming others, especially groups that are already viewed with suspicion. For example, after a terrorist attack, people might be more likely to believe theories that blame a specific group, even if there's no real evidence.

Sense-making mechanism. Conspiracy theories provide a way to explain complex and frightening situations. They offer a narrative that makes sense of chaos, even if that narrative is based on speculation and assumptions. This is why conspiracy theories often emerge after major events like 9/11 or the JFK assassination. They provide a simple, albeit often inaccurate, explanation for something that feels overwhelming and confusing.

Not pathological, but widespread. It's important to understand that believing in conspiracy theories isn't necessarily a sign of mental illness. It's a common human response to fear and uncertainty. This doesn't mean that all conspiracy theories are true, but it does mean that we need to understand the psychological processes that drive them. The fact that so many people believe in them suggests that they are rooted in normal human psychology.

2. Patternicity and Agenticity: The Building Blocks of Belief

Conspiracy theories originate through the same cognitive processes that produce other types of belief (e.g., new age, spirituality).

Patternicity: Seeing connections. Our brains are wired to find patterns, even when they don't exist. This is called "patternicity," and it's a key part of how we make sense of the world. For example, if you see a series of coincidences, you might start to think there's a hidden connection, even if it's just random chance. This tendency is amplified when we feel uncertain or afraid.

Agenticity: Assuming intent. "Agenticity" is our tendency to assume that events are caused by intentional actors. We often see purpose and design where there is none. For example, if a plane crashes, we might be more likely to believe it was brought down on purpose, rather than by accident. This tendency is also amplified by fear and uncertainty.

Intuitive thinking. Both patternicity and agenticity are part of our intuitive, automatic thinking style. This means that we often jump to conclusions without carefully analyzing the evidence. This is why conspiracy theories can be so appealing: they offer a quick and easy explanation that fits our intuitive understanding of the world. These processes are not unique to conspiracy theories, but are also found in other beliefs, such as supernatural beliefs.

3. Social Identity: "Us vs. Them" Fuels Conspiracy Theories

Conspiracy theories are about coalitions that operate in secret.

Ingroup vs. outgroup. Conspiracy theories often involve a clear distinction between "us" and "them." The "us" is the group that is being victimized, and the "them" is the group that is conspiring against "us." This can be based on nationality, religion, political affiliation, or any other social identity. For example, a conspiracy theory might claim that a certain ethnic group is secretly plotting to take over the world.

Protecting the ingroup. Conspiracy theories can be seen as a way to protect the ingroup from perceived threats. When people feel that their group is under attack, they are more likely to believe theories that blame an outgroup. This is why conspiracy theories often emerge during times of social conflict or tension.

Self-relevance matters. People are more likely to believe conspiracy theories when they feel a personal connection to the victims. This is why a terrorist attack in one's own country is more likely to inspire conspiracy theories than a similar attack in a distant land. The more self-relevant an event is, the more likely people are to seek conspiratorial explanations.

4. Ideology: Extremism Breeds Conspiratorial Thinking

Belief in one conspiracy theory stimulates belief in other conspiracy theories.

Extremism and certainty. People with extreme political or religious views are more likely to believe conspiracy theories. This is because extreme ideologies often offer a simple, black-and-white view of the world, which makes conspiracy theories more appealing. For example, someone with extreme right-wing views might be more likely to believe theories about a globalist conspiracy.

Populism and distrust. Populist movements, both on the left and the right, often rely on conspiracy theories to mobilize their supporters. These movements tend to distrust elites and institutions, which makes them more susceptible to conspiratorial thinking. For example, a populist leader might claim that the media is part of a conspiracy to silence the people.

Shared worldview. Conspiracy theories often reinforce existing ideological beliefs. People tend to seek out information that confirms their worldview, and conspiracy theories can provide that confirmation. This creates a feedback loop where people become more and more convinced of their beliefs, even if they are based on misinformation. This is why belief in one conspiracy theory often predicts belief in others.

5. The Proportionality Bias: Big Events, Big Causes

People have a tendency to assume that a big consequence must have had a big cause.

Matching cause to effect. The "proportionality bias" is our tendency to assume that big events must have big causes. This means that we are more likely to believe a conspiracy theory if the event is large and impactful. For example, the death of a president is more likely to inspire conspiracy theories than the death of an ordinary citizen.

Grand narratives. Conspiracy theories often offer a grand narrative that explains a major event in terms of a secret plot. This can be appealing because it provides a sense of order and meaning in a chaotic world. For example, a conspiracy theory might claim that a major war was caused by a secret cabal of powerful individuals.

Simple explanations. The proportionality bias can lead us to overlook simpler explanations for complex events. We might be more likely to believe a conspiracy theory than to accept that an event was caused by a series of accidents or mistakes. This is why it's important to consider all possible explanations, not just the most dramatic ones.

6. Conspiracy Theories: Not Always False, But Often Harmful

The psychology of conspiracy theories is not a question of which conspiracy theories are true or false – it is a question of who does or does not believe in them.

Real conspiracies exist. It's important to acknowledge that real conspiracies do happen. The Watergate scandal, the Iran-Contra affair, and the Tuskegee syphilis experiment are all examples of real conspiracies that were uncovered. This means that not all conspiracy theories are false.

Harmful consequences. However, many conspiracy theories are based on misinformation and can have harmful consequences. For example, anti-vaccine conspiracy theories have led to a decline in vaccination rates, which has put public health at risk. Conspiracy theories can also lead to violence, discrimination, and political instability.

Focus on belief, not truth. The psychology of conspiracy theories is not about proving or disproving specific theories. It's about understanding why some people are more likely to believe them than others. This means that we need to focus on the psychological processes that drive conspiracy beliefs, rather than getting caught up in debates about the truth of specific theories.

7. Reducing Conspiracy Theories: Empowerment and Critical Thinking

Understanding the psychological roots of conspiracy theories might ultimately help in finding ways to make citizens more critically examine them.

Promote analytic thinking. One way to reduce conspiracy theories is to promote analytic thinking. This means encouraging people to carefully evaluate evidence and consider alternative explanations. Education plays a key role in developing these skills.

Empowerment and control. Another way to reduce conspiracy theories is to empower people and give them a sense of control over their lives. When people feel that they have a voice and that their opinions matter, they are less likely to feel threatened and uncertain. This can be achieved through democratic participation and community engagement.

Address underlying fears. Conspiracy theories often emerge from underlying fears and anxieties. Addressing these fears can help to reduce the appeal of conspiracy theories. This might involve providing accurate information, promoting social inclusion, and addressing economic inequalities. It's also important to foster trust in institutions and leaders.

Last updated: January 15, 2025