The Rise of the Outsiders

1. The rise of political outsiders challenges mainstream parties

A pattern forms. There are many jagged edges and there is no neat uniformity, but across much of the democratic world, outsiders trigger volcanic political explosions, in some cases by winning power or by forcing more mainstream governments to change direction, with historic consequences.

Populist uprising. The political landscape across Western democracies has been dramatically reshaped by the emergence of outsider candidates and parties. These newcomers, often with little traditional political experience, have tapped into widespread dissatisfaction with established parties and institutions. Their success stems from:

• Promising simple solutions to complex problems
• Positioning themselves as authentic voices of "the people"
• Exploiting fears around immigration, economic insecurity, and globalization

Mainstream parties in crisis. The rise of outsiders has left traditional center-left and center-right parties struggling to retain support and relevance. Mainstream parties face challenges including:

• Loss of core voter bases to populist alternatives
• Difficulty articulating compelling visions in a changing world
• Internal divisions over how to respond to populist threats

2. Outsiders on the right exploit anti-immigration sentiment and economic anxiety

Trump is closer to Sanders in his ambition for huge increases in capital spending than he is to the small-state Washington Republicans. Marine Le Pen moves close at times to the politics of the late Tony Benn, the mesmerizing orator who propelled Labour to the left in the 1970s and early 1980s.

Economic nationalism. Right-wing populists have gained traction by blending traditionally left-wing economic policies with nationalist, anti-immigrant rhetoric. Key elements of their appeal include:

• Promises to protect domestic industries and jobs
• Skepticism or hostility toward free trade agreements
• Pledges to restrict immigration and prioritize native-born citizens

Contradictions and incoherence. Despite their popularity, many right-wing outsiders struggle to reconcile conflicting ideological positions:

• Combining small-government rhetoric with promises of massive state intervention
• Claiming to represent ordinary people while often coming from elite backgrounds
• Vowing to fight corruption while facing their own ethics scandals

3. Left-wing outsiders promise radical change but face constraints in power

Inevitably and very quickly they were shown to make only limited practical sense. He and most Greek voters wanted to remain in the euro, and therefore they could not defy the rules governing the single currency.

Radical promises meet reality. Left-wing outsiders like Greece's Syriza or Spain's Podemos have surged by offering bold alternatives to austerity and neoliberal economics. However, once in power, they often struggle to deliver on campaign pledges due to:

• Constraints imposed by membership in institutions like the EU and eurozone
• Pressure from financial markets and international creditors
• Limited room for maneuver in globalized economies

Disillusionment and compromise. The gap between revolutionary rhetoric and governing realities can lead to:

• Voter disillusionment and declining support
• Internal party divisions over strategy and ideology
• Gradual moderation of radical positions

4. Mainstream parties struggle to adapt to globalization and economic shifts

In their contrite expediency they had no ammunition to make sense of the changing times. What proved smart in some cases – brilliant strategic pragmatism in the early 1990s up to 2008 – became a calamity for them as they tried to navigate the disruptive consequences of the globalized economy.

Outdated playbooks. Center-left and center-right parties have struggled to respond effectively to seismic economic and social changes:

• Globalization and technological disruption upending traditional industries
• Growing inequality and precarious work challenging postwar social contracts
• Cultural anxieties around immigration and national identity

Ideological confusion. Mainstream parties face dilemmas in crafting coherent narratives:

• Center-left parties torn between traditional working-class bases and educated urban voters
• Center-right parties divided over free market orthodoxy vs. economic nationalism
• Both sides grappling with the proper role of government in the 21st century economy

5. Media and social media amplify populist messages and undermine trust

There is no getting away from the fact that a Democratic president named Barack Obama passed the law,' Obama himself declared, during various speeches towards the end of his second term, conveying a frustration at odds with the perceptions of a US president being the most powerful leader in the world.

24/7 scrutiny. The modern media environment poses major challenges for elected leaders:

• Constant pressure to respond to breaking news and social media controversies
• Difficulty articulating nuanced positions in soundbite-driven coverage
• Erosion of trust as minor missteps are amplified into major scandals

Populist advantage. Outsider candidates often benefit from media dynamics:

• Provocative statements garner disproportionate coverage
• Social media allows direct communication with supporters, bypassing traditional gatekeepers
• Distrust of "mainstream media" reinforces populist narratives

6. Democratic institutions constrain elected leaders' power to enact change

There is only one way of resolving the dilemma of balance in referendums, and that is not to hold referendums. That is for a leader to decide, not the media. Referendums over complex, multi-layered issues are bound to become a political battle of exaggerated claims and counter-claims.

Checks and balances. Democratic systems intentionally limit the power of individual leaders through:

• Separation of powers between executive, legislative, and judicial branches
• Federalism dividing authority between national and regional governments
• Constitutional protections for individual rights and minorities

Governing is hard. Elected leaders face numerous obstacles to implementing their agendas:

• Need to build coalitions and compromise in divided governments
• Judicial review of executive actions and legislation
• Bureaucratic resistance and institutional inertia

7. Rebuilding trust and articulating a positive role for government is crucial

May is in danger of becoming interesting, in spite of herself. She is a cautious leader and shows few signs of translating the argument into a set of radical policies. But in framing an argument about the good that government can do, she moves her party to a different, potentially more fertile place from where it was before.

Crisis of legitimacy. Declining trust in democratic institutions and leaders poses existential threats to liberal democracy:

• Voters viewing all politicians as corrupt or self-serving
• Susceptibility to authoritarian or anti-democratic alternatives
• Paralysis in addressing pressing societal challenges

Positive vision needed. To counter populist appeals, mainstream parties must articulate compelling visions for responsive, effective governance:

• Acknowledging valid concerns about globalization's downsides
• Proposing realistic solutions to economic insecurity and inequality
• Demonstrating how democratic government can improve people's lives

Last updated: August 21, 2024