The Signals Are Talking

1. Technology trends shape our future, but are often misunderstood

The future doesn't simply arrive fully formed overnight, but emerges step by step.

Trends emerge gradually. They first appear at seemingly random points around the fringe of society, never in the mainstream. Without context, those points can appear disparate, unrelated, and hard to connect meaningfully. But over time they fit into patterns and come into focus as a full-blown trend: a convergence of multiple points that reveal a direction or tendency, a force that combines some human need and new enabling technology that will shape the future.

Misidentifying trends is common. People often mistake trendy innovations for genuine trends. For example, the persistent excitement around flying cars has led to repeated disappointments, while the real trend of autonomous transportation has quietly advanced. Similarly, the "Uber for X" phenomenon saw many startups trying to replicate Uber's success in various industries, missing the broader trend of on-demand services and platform economies.

Recognizing true trends requires foresight. Organizations that can see trends early enough to take action have first-mover influence. They can also help to inform and shape the broader context, conversing and collaborating with those in other fields to plan ahead. This ability to forecast and act on trends can be the difference between thriving and becoming obsolete in rapidly changing industries.

2. Cast a wide net to find unusual suspects at the fringe of innovation

When looking for the future, many people begin with traditional market research, which is inherently a look into the past—not to what's ahead.

Seek out fringe thinkers. To understand what's plausible and possible beyond the visible horizon, you must seek out and get to know the "unusual suspects," the people who aren't yet winning awards for their work or being featured in "40-Under-40" business lists. These fringe thinkers are often stirring up controversy for their radical new ideas or silently working away, far from the public spotlight.

Expand your definition of relevance. When an organization wants to map the future of x, it too often defines x far too narrowly. To identify emerging trends, you must gather information and observations from the fringe, but you must also broaden your definition of x. Consider the intersecting vectors of change across multiple domains:

• Wealth distribution
• Education
• Government
• Politics
• Public health
• Demography
• Economy
• Environment
• Journalism
• Media

Create a fringe sketch. Visualize what's happening on the fringe by creating a map showing nodes (individuals or organizations) and connectors (relationships) impacting x. Plot developments related to x near the center, and those you believe are likely, but only as a result of other developments that must take place first, further away. This visual representation helps identify the unusual suspects and their potential impact on future trends.

3. Use CIPHER to identify hidden patterns and emerging trends

To solve the mystery of the future, you must engage what Holmes, and nineteenth-century Irish physicist John Tyndall before him, called the "scientific use of the imagination."

CIPHER pattern recognition model. After casting a wide net at the fringe, use the CIPHER model to identify hidden patterns that reveal emerging trends:

• Contradictions: When two or more things succeed or fail simultaneously, though usually they would track in opposite directions
• Inflections: When something happens to catalyze a great acceleration in emerging research
• Practices: When a new technology threatens the established orthodoxy
• Hacks: When consumers or companies create off-label uses for something, making it more useful
• Extremes: When people are truly pushing boundaries in an attempt to break new ground
• Rarities: When something unusual and unique solves a fundamental human need or transforms some element of society

Pattern recognition is crucial. Our brains are hardwired to recognize patterns, which helps us process vast amounts of information efficiently. By applying the CIPHER model to the information gathered from the fringe, you can begin to see connections and trends that might otherwise remain hidden.

Combine multiple indicators. A single CIPHER indicator doesn't necessarily indicate a trend. Look for multiple indicators converging to form a clear pattern. This convergence of signals is more likely to represent a genuine trend rather than a temporary fad or isolated innovation.

4. Ask the right questions to validate trend hypotheses

Forecasting the future requires us to identify trends and track them as they move from the fringe to the mainstream.

Challenge your assumptions. After identifying potential trends using CIPHER, it's crucial to interrogate your findings. This step is often neglected, especially when it comes to technology. Even when a new technology becomes popular, entrepreneurs, investors, and leaders often assume that it will jump across industries and scale the same way, earning the same revenue and proving just as indispensable to users in one field as in another.

Create counterarguments. Develop "disads" or disadvantages to break apart every part of your assertions. This process, similar to debate preparation, helps you:

• Separate assumptions from knowledge
• Identify potential flaws in your reasoning
• Strengthen your understanding of the trend

Ask probing questions. To determine if you've identified a genuine trend, consider:

• Does it address a fundamental human need?
• Is it catalyzed by new technology?
• Will it persist over time?
• How does it evolve as it emerges?
• Does it materialize as a series of unconnectable dots moving from the fringe to the mainstream?

By thoroughly questioning your trend hypotheses, you can avoid falling for shiny objects and focus on trends with real potential for sustained impact.

5. Calculate a trend's ETA by balancing internal developments and external events

Determining whether something is a trend before you act on it is just as important as calculating where that trend is along its trajectory.

Adapt the GPS ETA formula. To estimate a trend's arrival time, use this adapted formula:

Trend's timing = (internal tech developments, or I) +/– (external events, or E)

Internal tech developments (I). These are technological advances specific to or directly impacted by a trend. They often happen within an organization or as a result of partnerships. For example, in the case of autonomous vehicles:

• Development of semi-autonomous driving features
• Creation of mobile monitoring technology
• Advancement of "handoff" technology between computer and human control
• Improvement of cybersecurity measures for vehicle systems

External events (E). These are adjacent developments and circumstances that will impact the trend's future, even if technology leaps forward. Often, these events are completely outside an organization's control. For autonomous vehicles, this might include:

• Changes in government regulations
• Shifts in public attitudes toward autonomous technology
• Availability and cost of necessary components
• Economic factors affecting the automotive industry

Consider multiple time zones. When calculating a trend's ETA, consider various time frames:

• Now: within the next 12 months
• Near-term: 1-5 years
• Mid-range: 5-10 years
• Long-range: 10-20 years
• Far-range: 20-30 years
• Distant: more than 30 years

By balancing internal developments with external events across these time zones, you can more accurately estimate when a trend will reach critical mass and begin to significantly impact your industry or society at large.

6. Create scenarios to envision probable, plausible, and possible futures

Scenarios are still used today, for the same reasons that Kahn introduced them to RAND, Nostradamus employed them in his writings, and our primeval ancestors carved them onto clay pots: because they help us understand the meaning of facts.

Use the "if this, then that" formula. Develop scenarios following this pattern:

IF [Facts, Perspectives, Framing] . . . THEN [Outcomes]

Consider multiple future types:

• Probable futures: Assume that a current trend is likely to continue without much change
• Plausible futures: Factor in our current understanding of a trend, laws of nature, and existing systems
• Possible futures: Break free from current constraints and imagine what might happen in the farther future

Include key elements in scenarios:

• Facts: What do we know to be true about the trend?
• Perspectives: Who are the key players involved? What are their motivations and concerns?
• Framing: What are the emotional aspects? What do we want to happen, fear might happen, or believe can't happen?
• Outcomes: What are the logical consequences of these factors coming together?

Develop multiple scenarios. Create at least four possible stories for each trend:

• Optimistic
• Pragmatic
• Pessimistic
• Catastrophic

By exploring a range of potential futures, you can better prepare for various outcomes and identify opportunities and risks associated with emerging trends.

7. Pressure-test strategies to ensure they address the identified trend

Once you've identified and proven out a trend, calculated its ETA, and developed scenarios and a strategy to address it, you must take one last step to ensure that your strategy is sound—and to force yourself to think through the implications of your actions.

Apply the F.U.T.U.R.E. Test. Use this framework to pressure-test your strategy:

• Foundation: Do you have support from key stakeholders? Does your strategy address the issues uncovered while researching the trend?
• Unique: Does your action offer a unique value proposition? Is it clear to your customers?
• Track: Can you set meaningful benchmarks and measure outcomes?
• Urgent: Does your strategy communicate a sense of urgency? Will there be continued demand?
• Recalibrate: How will you allocate time and money to track the trend and its implications? Can your project evolve?
• Extensible: Can your trend strategy accommodate future changes easily?

Consider unintended consequences. Think through potential negative outcomes or ethical dilemmas that may arise from implementing your strategy. For example, how might your actions impact privacy, social equality, or environmental sustainability?

Remain flexible. Be prepared to adjust your strategy as new information becomes available or as the trend evolves. The future is not set in stone, and your approach should be adaptable to changing circumstances.

8. Balance creative thinking and pragmatic analysis to overcome the duality dilemma

Forecasting the future requires a certain amount of mental ambidexterity.

Understand the duality dilemma. Organizations often struggle with balancing creative, right-brain thinking and logical, left-brain analysis. This can lead to either overly cautious strategies that miss opportunities or wildly impractical ideas that can't be implemented.

Practice flaring and focusing. Alternate between broad creative thinking ("flaring") and narrowing down practical considerations ("focusing"):

1. Flare at the fringe: Cast a wide net for ideas without judgment
2. Focus to spot patterns: Use CIPHER to identify emerging trends
3. Flare to ask the right questions: Challenge assumptions and create counterarguments
4. Focus to calculate timing: Determine the trend's ETA
5. Flare to create scenarios: Envision possible futures
6. Focus to pressure-test your action: Ensure your strategy is sound

Build diverse teams. Include both creative thinkers and pragmatic analysts in your trend-forecasting efforts. This diversity of thought can lead to more robust and actionable strategies for addressing future trends.

9. Recognize the ethical implications of emerging technologies

We aren't augmenting reality as much as we are augmenting humanity.

Consider long-term consequences. As technology advances rapidly, it's crucial to think about the ethical implications of our innovations. Some key questions to consider:

• Who is responsible when AI or autonomous systems cause harm?
• How do we protect privacy and personal data in an increasingly connected world?
• What are the societal implications of human augmentation technologies?
• How do we ensure equitable access to transformative technologies?

Balance innovation with responsibility. While pushing the boundaries of technology, we must also consider the potential negative impacts on individuals, society, and the environment. This requires ongoing dialogue between technologists, ethicists, policymakers, and the general public.

Educate and prepare. As technology becomes more pervasive and complex, it's essential to educate people about its implications and prepare them for a rapidly changing world. This includes developing new skills, updating regulations, and fostering a culture of responsible innovation.

10. Take action now to shape your preferred future

The future won't just happen to my daughter's daughter, or to

Last updated: September 11, 2024