Values, Voice and Virtue

1. The rise of a new elite has transformed British politics and society

"Britain's new ruling class look and sound very different from the old elite who dominated the country during the twentieth century."

A new elite has emerged. Over the last 50 years, a new elite has risen to dominate British politics, economy and culture. Unlike the old aristocratic elite, this new ruling class is defined by:

• University degrees from prestigious institutions like Oxbridge
• Professional and managerial careers, often in London
• Liberal cosmopolitan values
• Outsized influence in key institutions like media, universities and politics

This elite represents only about 25% of the population but wields enormous power. Their rise has created new political and cultural divides, as large segments of the population feel left behind economically and culturally alienated from the new elite's values and priorities.

2. A political revolution reshaped Britain around the interests of the new elite

"Between the 1980s and the 2010s, Britain had been rocked by the rise of populism, the shock vote for Brexit, the collapse of the Labour Party, the stunning rise and then dramatic fall of Boris Johnson and the explosion of American style 'culture wars' over free speech, the legacy of Britain's empire, racism, gender wars and, ultimately, who we think we are as a country."

A transformative political project. From the 1980s onward, both Conservative and Labour governments pursued policies that favored the new elite:

• Hyper-globalization and deregulation of finance
• Mass immigration
• Deeper integration with the EU
• Hollowing out of national democracy

This revolution brought prosperity to some but left many feeling economically and culturally alienated. Key impacts included:

• Deindustrialization and regional inequality
• Weakening of working class institutions like unions
• Cultural changes that clashed with more traditional values
• A sense of lost control over borders and national destiny

3. A growing divide over values has fueled political upheaval

"Politics, in other words, has become 'two-dimensional', shaped not only by the old left and right economic divide but now also by the cosmopolitan and traditionalist divide."

Values divide the country. A key driver of political upheaval is a growing values divide between:

• Cosmopolitans: Urban, educated elites who embrace liberal, globalist values
• Traditionalists: Often working-class, less educated voters with more conservative cultural views

This divide shapes attitudes on key issues:

• EU membership and sovereignty
• Immigration and diversity
• National identity and patriotism
• Social and cultural change

The values gap helps explain support for Brexit, populism and Boris Johnson among traditionalists who feel the new elite don't share or respect their values.

4. The new elite dominate institutions, marginalizing other voices

"Britain's political institutions have always been dominated by a narrow elite, of course, but in a world where debates about culture, identity and belonging have surged up the agenda, and the graduate class has become far more liberal than it used to be, this large and widening gulf has become far more problematic, fuelling a sense among traditionalists that their voice is no longer included in the conversation and the institutions."

Institutions lack diversity of voice. The new elite now dominate key institutions:

• Politics: Over 90% of MPs are university graduates
• Civil service: Senior ranks heavily skew towards elite backgrounds
• Media: Journalists overwhelmingly from privileged, urban backgrounds
• Universities: Faculty lean heavily liberal/left

This has created an "exclusion bias" where policies and cultural narratives align with elite interests and values. Many voters feel their voices and concerns are no longer represented in national institutions and debates.

5. Feelings of lost status and virtue drive support for populism

"Feeling derided and dismissed as an uneducated, racist and morally inferior underclass, many people have either given up on politics altogether or searched for more radical leaders who promise to treat them and their group with respect."

Status anxiety fuels backlash. Beyond economic and cultural factors, many voters support populist movements due to:

• Feeling looked down on by liberal elites as ignorant or bigoted
• Sense that their group (e.g. white working class) is losing social status
• Belief that elites award more moral worth to minorities and immigrants

Populist leaders tap into these feelings by:

• Promising to restore dignity and respect to "forgotten" groups
• Attacking liberal elites as out-of-touch and contemptuous of ordinary people
• Celebrating traditional values and national pride

6. Immigration and national identity are key flashpoints in the new politics

"These profound changes will soon become a visible reminder to many traditionalists of why their vision of the counter-revolution is not one that is shared by the people who sit at the top of the Conservative Party."

Immigration reshapes Britain. Immigration has become a central political issue:

• Unprecedented levels of immigration since the late 1990s
• Rapid demographic change, especially in urban areas
• Concerns about integration and impact on national identity

Views on immigration align closely with the cosmopolitan-traditionalist divide:

• Cosmopolitans see immigration as economically and culturally enriching
• Traditionalists worry about erosion of national culture and community cohesion

Political parties struggle to bridge this divide, with the Conservatives in particular torn between free market and cultural conservative wings.

7. An emerging liberal backlash is challenging the populist counter-revolution

"Much like the rise of Barack Obama in 2008, commentators talk excitedly about a completely new electoral realignment, the rise of a new electoral coalition that will push back against populism, Brexit and more than a decade of Conservative Party dominance."

Liberal forces mobilize. After a decade of populist ascendancy, a liberal counter-trend is emerging:

• Growing support for Labour among university graduates
• Young voters trending heavily liberal/left
• Ethnic minority voters remain strongly pro-Labour

Key drivers include:

• Backlash against Brexit and populism
• Growing racial/ethnic diversity, especially among youth
• Spread of liberal values through education and media

This creates a potential new coalition for Labour, but risks further polarization along educational and generational lines.

8. The future of British politics depends on addressing deep social divides

"Unless we all find a better way of addressing these new divides they will almost certainly continue to cause new political earthquakes in the years ahead as people search for leaders who will reassert their values, voice and sense of virtue against this new elite."

Bridging divides is crucial. The future stability of British politics depends on addressing the deep divides in society:

• Economic: Between winners and losers of globalization
• Cultural: Between cosmopolitan and traditional values
• Educational: Between graduates and non-graduates
• Geographic: Between thriving cities and left-behind towns

Potential paths forward:

• Policies to spread economic opportunity more evenly
• Cultural compromise on issues like immigration
• Reforming institutions to be more representative
• Political leaders who can speak to both cosmopolitan and traditional voters

Failure to bridge these divides risks ongoing instability and potential for more extreme populist movements.

Last updated: August 9, 2024