Vanishing Frontiers

1. The U.S. and Mexico: Intimate Strangers in a Changing Relationship

"We don't talk about two cities; we talk about one region," he tells me.

Unprecedented integration. The U.S.-Mexico relationship has transformed dramatically over the past few decades, moving from distant neighbors to intimate partners. This shift is exemplified by the growing connections between border cities like San Diego and Tijuana, which increasingly function as a single metropolitan area.

Economic and cultural ties. The integration extends beyond geography, encompassing economic, cultural, and social spheres. Shared production chains, cross-border investments, and cultural exchanges have created deep interdependencies between the two countries. This new reality challenges traditional notions of separate national identities and economies.

Evolving perceptions. Despite political rhetoric that sometimes suggests otherwise, public opinion in both countries has generally become more positive towards each other. Americans increasingly recognize Mexico's importance to their daily lives, while Mexicans have developed a more nuanced view of the United States beyond historical grievances.

2. Economic Integration: NAFTA and the Rise of Shared Production

"North America has become a shared production platform," says Luis de la Calle, one of Mexico's top trade analysts.

NAFTA's impact. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) fundamentally reshaped economic relations between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada. Trade among the three countries quadrupled since 1994, creating the world's largest trading bloc.

Integrated supply chains. Perhaps the most significant outcome has been the development of deeply integrated supply chains, particularly in industries like automotive and aerospace. Products now routinely cross borders multiple times during the manufacturing process.

Economic benefits and challenges. While some low-wage jobs did move to Mexico, especially early on, the overall impact on the U.S. economy has been positive:

• Increased exports to Mexico (more than to China, Japan, and South Korea combined)
• Enhanced global competitiveness for North American industries
• Job creation in export-oriented sectors

3. Mexican Investment in the U.S.: Creating Jobs and Boosting Local Economies

"Production has gone up, employment has gone up, investment has gone up," said one of the workers enthusiastically when I asked him about what had changed since DeAcero bought the company.

Surprising trend. Contrary to popular perception, Mexican companies have become significant investors in the U.S. economy. Since 2005, Mexican foreign direct investment in the U.S. has quadrupled, reaching $17 billion in 2016.

Job creation and economic impact. Mexican-owned companies employ at least 123,000 Americans directly, with wider economic impacts when considering contractors and indirect job creation. Examples include:

• Bimbo Bakeries: 21,000 U.S. employees across 60 plants
• Gruma (Mission Foods): Largest tortilla factory in the world in California
• DeAcero: Saved the last major U.S. nail factory in Poplar Bluff, Missouri

Filling niches. Mexican companies have often found success by:

• Leveraging their understanding of Latino markets in the U.S.
• Expanding into mainstream American markets
• Bringing unique products or business models (e.g., pay-as-you-go cell phones)

4. Innovation Across Borders: The Growth of Mexico's Tech Industry

"Creating innovative technology that solves real problems," says Lynne Bairstow, a former Wall Street investor turned venture capitalist in Mexico.

Emerging tech hub. Guadalajara has transformed from a manufacturing center to "Mexico's Silicon Valley," attracting major tech companies and fostering a growing startup ecosystem.

Binational innovation. The tech industry exemplifies the growing integration between the U.S. and Mexico:

• U.S. companies like IBM, Intel, and Oracle have major R&D facilities in Mexico
• Mexican startups increasingly seek funding and connections in Silicon Valley
• Talent flows both ways, with Mexican engineers working in the U.S. and American entrepreneurs starting companies in Mexico

Addressing local and global needs. Many Mexican startups focus on solving problems relevant to emerging markets, potentially creating solutions with global impact:

• Kueski: Online microloans for those without traditional banking access
• Unima: Smartphone-based medical diagnostics for rural areas

5. Energy Independence: A New Era of Collaboration

"We can't talk about US energy independence, but we can talk about energy independence in North America," he says.

Shifting dynamics. The energy relationship between the U.S. and Mexico has undergone a dramatic transformation:

• Mexico's 2013 energy reform opened the sector to private investment
• The U.S. has become a major exporter of natural gas to Mexico
• Renewable energy cooperation is growing, especially in border regions

North American energy security. The integrated energy markets of the U.S., Mexico, and Canada have the potential to achieve energy independence for North America by 2020 or soon after.

Challenges and opportunities. While the relationship has great potential, challenges remain:

• Developing Mexico's oil production capacity after years of underinvestment
• Balancing energy needs with environmental concerns
• Navigating political sensitivities around energy sovereignty in Mexico

6. Security Cooperation: Tackling Organized Crime Together

"Turning the Cosa Nostra into the Sopranos," taking giant organized crime groups and turning them into small, less threatening ones.

Evolution of cooperation. U.S.-Mexico security cooperation has deepened significantly since the early 2000s, moving from limited engagement to close collaboration in tackling transnational organized crime.

Joint operations and intelligence sharing. Key developments include:

• The Mérida Initiative: U.S. support for Mexican security efforts
• Joint intelligence centers and fusion centers
• Coordinated operations against major drug trafficking organizations

Mixed results. While cooperation has led to the dismantling of several major cartels, challenges remain:

• The persistence of smaller, fragmented criminal groups
• Ongoing violence in parts of Mexico
• The need for continued institutional reform and anti-corruption efforts in Mexico

7. Migration Patterns: The End of Mass Mexican Immigration

"If I were to go back," she admits wistfully, "I'd still be homesick."

Dramatic shift. The era of mass Mexican migration to the U.S. has ended:

• Net migration from Mexico to the U.S. has been negative since 2009
• The number of unauthorized Mexicans in the U.S. has dropped by over 1 million in the past decade

Factors behind the change:

• Improved economic conditions and expanded educational opportunities in Mexico
• Declining birth rates in Mexico
• Increased border security and immigration enforcement in the U.S.

New migration dynamics. The changing patterns have led to new realities:

• Central American migration has become more prominent
• Mexico is now a transit country and sometimes a destination for migrants
• Some Mexican-Americans are "returning" to Mexico, creating new cultural dynamics

8. Cultural Exchange: Mexican Influence on American Life

"We've gone from ethnic to mainstream," says Jinich.

Culinary impact. Mexican cuisine has become deeply integrated into American food culture:

• Tacos and burritos are now as American as hamburgers and pizza
• High-end Mexican restaurants are gaining recognition in the fine dining world
• Mexican-inspired fusion cuisine is increasingly popular

Entertainment and sports. Mexican and Mexican-American influence is growing in:

• Film and television (both behind and in front of the camera)
• Professional sports (especially in soccer, but also in traditional American sports)
• Music and popular culture

Bilingual and bicultural identity. As the Mexican-American population grows and becomes more established:

• Spanish and English are increasingly mixed in marketing and popular culture
• Celebrations like Cinco de Mayo have become mainstream American events
• Mexican cultural traditions are influencing and blending with broader American culture

9. Vanishing Frontiers: The Future of U.S.-Mexico Relations

The frontiers that once separated us will continue to vanish as forces stronger and more dynamic than any presidential order or trade agreement continue to bring us closer together.

Deepening integration. Despite political rhetoric and occasional tensions, the fundamental forces driving U.S.-Mexico integration are likely to continue:

• Economic interdependence through shared production and trade
• Cultural ties through large Mexican-American populations and cross-border exchanges
• Shared challenges in areas like security, energy, and the environment

Challenges ahead. The relationship will face ongoing challenges:

• Political tensions and differing policy priorities
• Managing border security while facilitating legitimate trade and travel
• Addressing inequality and development disparities within and between the two countries

A shared future. The U.S. and Mexico are likely to become increasingly interconnected, with success and challenges in one country directly impacting the other. This reality calls for continued cooperation and understanding, even in the face of short-term political disagreements.

Last updated: November 18, 2024