War on Peace

1. The decline of American diplomacy began long before Trump

"Over the course of the 1990s, the United States' international affairs budget tumbled by 30 percent, on a par with the cuts requested years later by the Trump administration."

Budget cuts crippled diplomacy. In the 1990s, the Clinton administration and Congress slashed funding for the State Department and closed dozens of diplomatic posts worldwide. This downsizing occurred just as the post-Cold War world was becoming more complex, requiring more nuanced diplomacy. The cuts left the State Department ill-equipped to handle emerging challenges in the 21st century.

9/11 accelerated militarization. After the September 11 attacks, the Bush administration further sidelined diplomats in favor of military and intelligence solutions. This shift prioritized short-term counterterrorism goals over long-term diplomatic engagement. The State Department struggled to reassert its relevance in an era dominated by the Pentagon and CIA.

Key diplomatic casualties of 1990s cuts:

• 26 consulates closed
• 50 USAID missions shuttered
• Arms Control and Disarmament Agency eliminated
• United States Information Agency dissolved

2. Military and intelligence agencies have eclipsed the State Department

"The Defense Department budget is always very much larger, and for good reason, I mean I agree with that, but the ratio between the two keeps getting worse and worse."

Budgets reflect priorities. The massive disparity between military and diplomatic spending has only grown since 9/11. While the Pentagon's budget has soared, the State Department has faced repeated cuts and hiring freezes. This imbalance has eroded America's capacity for nuanced diplomacy and soft power.

Military dominates policymaking. Beyond just funding, the military and intelligence community have gained outsized influence in foreign policy decisions. Generals and spies increasingly shape strategy, often sidelining diplomatic perspectives. This has led to an overreliance on military solutions to complex geopolitical challenges.

Examples of military/intelligence dominance:

• CIA and military relationships with warlords in Afghanistan
• Drone strikes and covert operations replacing traditional diplomacy
• Generals filling key national security roles in White House

3. Diplomats like Richard Holbrooke fought to maintain relevance

"Holbrooke had seen the United States squander one chance to end a war; he wouldn't let it happen again."

Holbrooke's last stand. Veteran diplomat Richard Holbrooke, who negotiated peace in Bosnia, tried to apply lessons from that success to Afghanistan. He pushed for a diplomatic solution and regional approach, but was often sidelined by military voices in the Obama administration.

Uphill battle for diplomacy. Holbrooke's struggles epitomized the broader marginalization of the State Department. Even seasoned diplomats found themselves outmaneuvered by generals and intelligence officials in policy debates. The "militarization of foreign policy" that Holbrooke warned about has only accelerated since his death in 2010.

Holbrooke's key diplomatic principles:

• Emphasize negotiations alongside military pressure
• Engage regional powers in finding solutions
• Focus on long-term stability, not just short-term military goals

4. US alliances with warlords and strongmen have backfired

"We make our compromises. We may incur a debt for the future."

Short-term gains, long-term problems. In Afghanistan, Somalia, and elsewhere, the US has repeatedly allied with local strongmen to achieve immediate counterterrorism objectives. While sometimes tactically successful, these alliances often undermine long-term stability and American values.

Human rights consequences. US support has emboldened abusive warlords and authoritarian regimes, damaging America's credibility as a champion of democracy and human rights. The reliance on military-to-military relationships has come at the expense of broader diplomatic engagement with civil society and reform-minded elements.

Examples of problematic US allies:

• General Dostum in Afghanistan (accused of war crimes)
• Egyptian President Sisi (presiding over harsh crackdown)
• Saudi Arabia (human rights abuses, war in Yemen)

5. The Iran nuclear deal showcased diplomacy's potential

"Being able to resolve the nuclear issue without a shot being fired, in a way that serves our interests, is a pretty significant step."

Patient diplomacy pays off. The 2015 Iran nuclear agreement demonstrated that even with a hostile nation, sustained diplomatic engagement can yield results. Years of careful negotiations, led by seasoned diplomats, produced a deal that verifiably constrained Iran's nuclear program.

Multifaceted approach. The Iran deal's success stemmed from combining economic pressure, multilateral cooperation, and direct talks. This contrasted with the purely confrontational approach favored by some hawks. The agreement showed how diplomacy can offer more durable solutions than military threats alone.

Key elements of Iran deal diplomacy:

• Multilateral coalition (P5+1 countries)
• Careful sequencing of sanctions relief and compliance
• Intensive verification measures
• Back-channel talks to build trust

6. Lack of diplomatic expertise has weakened US foreign policy

"We have unilaterally disarmed basically. If you don't have diplomacy as a tool, you have unilaterally undermined your own power. Why would we do that?"

Brain drain at State. Budget cuts, hiring freezes, and low morale have depleted the ranks of experienced diplomats. This loss of expertise leaves the US less equipped to navigate complex global challenges and spot emerging threats and opportunities.

Policy consequences. Without robust diplomatic input, US foreign policy has become more reactive and militarized. Nuanced understanding of local contexts is often lacking, leading to missteps in places like Iraq, Libya, and Syria. The hollowing out of the State Department has deprived policymakers of crucial perspectives.

Areas weakened by diplomatic decline:

• Language skills (Arabic, Farsi, Chinese, etc.)
• Deep regional expertise
• Negotiation and conflict resolution capabilities
• Public diplomacy and soft power projection

7. China is filling the diplomatic void left by America's retreat

"It's a completely self-inflicted wound. It worries me a lot more than many of the other issues consuming the public debate most days."

Rising Chinese influence. As the US has pulled back from global leadership roles, China has eagerly stepped in. Beijing is expanding its diplomatic presence worldwide, increasing foreign aid, and positioning itself as a more reliable partner than Washington.

Long-term strategic shift. China's diplomatic offensive goes beyond just filling vacuums left by US retreat. It represents a concerted effort to reshape the international order in ways more favorable to Chinese interests. The Belt and Road Initiative exemplifies this comprehensive approach to expanding influence.

Examples of China's diplomatic expansion:

• Largest contributor of peacekeepers among P5 nations
• Major lender to developing countries
• Mediator role in conflicts (e.g. Afghanistan peace talks)
• Expanding network of Confucius Institutes

8. Restoring diplomacy is crucial for America's global leadership

"Diplomacy really ought to be the tool of first resort internationally. It can sometimes achieve things at far less cost, both financially and in terms of American lives, than the use of the military can."

Rebalancing is essential. To maintain global leadership, the US must reinvest in its diplomatic capabilities. This means not just increased funding, but a cultural shift that once again values diplomacy as a critical tool of statecraft.

Complementing military power. A revitalized State Department would enhance, not diminish, America's hard power. Skilled diplomats can help prevent conflicts before they require military intervention and create more sustainable solutions to global challenges.

Steps to restore diplomacy:

• Increase State Department funding and hiring
• Elevate diplomatic voices in national security decisions
• Rebuild alliances and multilateral engagement
• Emphasize long-term relationship building, not just crisis management

Last updated: January 23, 2025