Wireless Wars

1. America's Telecom Lead Was Squandered

Wireless Wars isn’t just a book about the global struggle between China and the rest of the world.

Invention and early dominance. AT&T's Bell Laboratories invented cellular telephony, but a flawed market study by McKinsey & Company led AT&T to underestimate the potential of mobile phones. This misjudgment allowed Motorola to seize an early lead, and AT&T focused on computers instead, missing a crucial opportunity.

Relocation of manufacturing. North American and European manufacturers relocated factories to China to take advantage of cheap labor and access the growing Chinese market. This transfer of technology and manufacturing know-how ultimately empowered Chinese companies to compete directly with their Western counterparts.

Short-term profits over long-term strategy. Western telecom executives prioritized short-term profits over long-term strategic considerations. They failed to anticipate the dangers of empowering a country with values that clash with democratic principles, leading to the rise of Chinese telecom giants like Huawei and ZTE.

2. China's Rise Was Aided by Western Complacency

We taught them how to cook food Western style, and now they’re eating our lunch.

Education and knowledge transfer. Western companies willingly educated Chinese customers, partners, and even competitors on how to improve their business practices and technology. This knowledge transfer, intended to foster collaboration, inadvertently paved the way for Chinese companies to dominate the telecom sector.

Exploitation of Western business practices. China effectively used Western entrepreneurial market mindsets against them. While Western companies operated with a "every-man-for-himself" approach, China maintained a unified presence, strategically coordinating efforts to gain a competitive edge.

The dot-com bubble burst. The collapse of the service provider sector following the dot-com bubble burst created a power vacuum. As equipment sales plummeted and service providers consolidated, North American and European equipment vendors were wiped out, leaving the door open for Chinese companies to rise.

3. 5G Networks Are More Than Just Faster Phones

5G is about a lot more than faster downloads, and the idea that a Chinese company with a questionable history would be responsible for delivering these services started to sound alarm bells in the halls of businesses, lawmakers, and intelligence agencies around the globe.

Transformative technology. 5G networks are not just about faster cell phone services; they are about transforming the way businesses and governments operate. These networks will access financial information, control factories, deliver medical treatment, steer cars, and link soldiers on the battlefield.

Critical infrastructure control. Whoever builds these networks may be able to observe, throttle, or even terminate what passes over them. This control over critical infrastructure raises significant national security concerns, as it could allow a hostile government to disrupt vital services.

The Internet of Things. 5G is the backbone of the Internet of Things, connecting billions of devices and enabling new levels of automation and data collection. This interconnectedness creates new vulnerabilities and opportunities for surveillance and control.

4. Huawei's Global Ambitions Are Tied to China's Strategic Goals

China’s rulers are waging a war for global dominance on many fronts—the technological battlefield prominent among them.

Serving the national interest. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) demands that its national champions serve the national interest. This presents a grave danger in the telecom sector, as manufacturers are expected to remain active inside their customer's network, monitoring performance and managing equipment.

Exporting authoritarian surveillance. There are concerns that Huawei's technology is being used to project China's influence around the world and advance the values of the CCP. Huawei's "Smart Cities" package of solutions has raised questions about the vast amount of information being collected and where it is being redirected.

The "wolf culture." Huawei's founder and CEO urges employees to embrace a "wolf culture," which he describes as "bloodthirsty, working in packs, and resistant to harsh environments." This aggressive and competitive culture raises concerns about the company's ethical standards and its willingness to engage in questionable practices to achieve its goals.

5. The US Government Is Waking Up to the Threat

We hate Trump, but secretly we love what he’s doing about China.

Growing suspicions. Intelligence services in the "Five Eyes" nations (United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand) have been growing suspicious of Huawei's activities. The FBI has set up a team to investigate the company's motives and potential security risks.

Rural network deployments. The FBI discovered that Huawei's rural network deployments in the US overlaid too closely with America's most secure defense facilities, raising concerns about potential espionage and data collection.

Aggressive US administration. The Trump administration took aggressive steps to counter Huawei's dominance, including blocking chip sales to the company and pressuring allies to eliminate Huawei equipment from their networks. These actions have brought Huawei to a grinding halt and forced countries around the world to reconsider their relationship with the company.

6. China's Internal Oppression Mirrors External Ambitions

The Chinese government can extend such abuses using its access to the world’s communications networks, whether through databases believed to be hacked by the People’s Liberation Army’s infamous Advanced Persistent Threat unit or through eavesdropping, phishing, or socially engineered breaches into the most secure systems.

Authoritarian surveillance and control. China's views on public participation in governance, as exhibited by the Hong Kong crackdown, have raised concerns about America relying on an authoritarian rival to deliver crucial support across multiple critical infrastructures.

Constant scrutiny. Chinese citizens are under constant scrutiny while in their home country, and many are unable to escape that scrutiny while abroad. This raises concerns about the potential for the Chinese government to extend such abuses using its access to the world's communications networks.

Live fire drill. Some in Western intelligence communities see China's handling of its own citizens as a live fire drill for how it could monitor, observe, and control rivals in the United States and elsewhere.

7. The Telecom War Is About More Than Just Economics

Telecom is not just critical infrastructure; it enables and controls all other critical infrastructures, from air travel to power grids to hospitals.

Critical infrastructure control. Telecom is not just critical infrastructure; it enables and controls all other critical infrastructures, from air travel to power grids to hospitals. This control gives whoever builds and manages the networks significant power and influence.

Vulnerability to attacks. Telecom networks are more vulnerable than other critical infrastructure because they allow a bad actor to cause trouble without needing to be physically on the scene or to breach a physical barrier. They are vulnerable to attacks from anyone, anywhere in the world, who is clever enough to access them.

Military dependence. Even the military has become increasingly dependent on wireless public networks to execute its mission. This dependence creates new vulnerabilities and opportunities for adversaries to disrupt or compromise military operations.

8. Permissionless Innovation Is the West's Asymmetric Advantage

Ironically, it may be precisely those cultural traits that present the best solution to our current bind.

Cultural traits. The countries of Europe and the Americas have lost the early battles for 5G, but that doesn't mean they can't win the wireless war. Their freewheeling, every-man-for-himself entrepreneurial market mindset can be used against China effectively.

Scale from an ecosystem. The scale needed to win may come from an ecosystem of established players and entrepreneurs that is, together, far bigger than even the Goliath Huawei. This ecosystem can leverage the strengths of each participant and create a more dynamic and innovative environment.

The Internet revolution. The battle for 5G may be the beginning of a technology revolution in wireless like the internet revolution that replaced huge, centrally developed and managed phone networks with the even larger and vastly more flexible distributed networks of today's internet.

9. A New Ecosystem Can Reclaim Telecom Leadership

The scale we need to win may come from an ecosystem of established players and entrepreneurs that is, together, far bigger than even the Goliath Huawei.

Open standards. The answer lies in developing systems that allow off-the-shelf hardware from any company to be used in the network, systems that let any company's software engineers write whatever software is necessary for whomever needs it.

Off-the-shelf hardware. Systems that allow off-the-shelf hardware from any company to be used in the network, systems that let any company’s software engineers—not just those from Nokia, Ericsson, or Huawei—write whatever software is necessary for whomever needs it.

A technology revolution. Could the might of a $120 billion Chinese manufacturer be surpassed by thousands of small, medium, and large companies working in a completely new kind of market?

Last updated: April 14, 2025