重点摘要
1. 市场记忆犹新,但投资者健忘
“人们会忘记。太多!太频繁!太快!”
短期记忆困扰投资者。 这种认知偏差导致投资者过度关注近期事件而忽视长期趋势。他们往往认为当前的市场状况是独特的,而实际上,类似的情况以前已经发生过很多次。这种健忘使得投资者反复犯同样的错误,比如在市场下跌时恐慌或在牛市时过于乐观。
历史是一个强大的工具。 通过研究过去的市场事件,投资者可以对当前情况有更好的理解并做出更明智的决策。例如,了解每次复苏都被称为“无就业复苏”可以帮助投资者避免对暂时的失业高峰反应过度。同样,认识到对“双底衰退”的担忧是常见的但很少实现,可以防止不必要的投资组合调整。
2. 牛市本质上高于平均水平
“牛市比人们记得的更长更强,并且本质上高于平均水平。”
V型复苏很常见。 在熊市之后,股票通常会急剧反弹,形成V型模式。下跌越陡峭,随后的复苏往往越强烈。这种现象是由市场底部的情绪与现实之间的脱节所驱动的。
牛市特征:
- 平均持续时间:57个月
- 平均累计回报:164%
- 前12个月平均回报:46.6%
- 前3个月平均回报:23.1%
由于恐惧或怀疑而错过牛市初期的投资者往往会后悔,因为这些早期的收益可能占整个牛市回报的很大一部分。
3. 波动性是正常且自身波动的
“波动性是波动的,并没有趋势性增加。”
波动性是市场生活的一个事实。 尽管普遍认为市场波动性在增加,但实际上它是周期性波动的,高波动期之后通常会有平静期。这种模式在市场历史上一直保持一致。
关键波动性见解:
- 自1926年以来的年回报标准差(SD):19.2%
- 中位数SD:12.9%
- 最波动的一年:1932年(SD:65.24%,回报:-8.41%)
- 最不波动的一年:1964年(SD:3.46%,回报:16.48%)
波动性并不一定预示市场方向。高波动性可以出现在上涨和下跌市场中。例如,尽管2009年是股票强劲的正年,但其波动性比2008年更高。
4. 长期熊市是个神话;长期牛市是真实的
“股票——上涨远多于下跌”
长期市场趋势有利于增长。 尽管有周期性下跌,市场的总体趋势是向上的。这与“长期熊市”的概念相矛盾——即持续负回报的长时间段。实际上,即使在看似平淡的十年中,也有显著的增长机会。
历史市场表现:
- 正年:71.8%的时间
- 正的滚动5年期:86.9%
- 正的滚动10年期:94%
- 正的滚动20年期:100%
相信长期熊市的投资者往往因过度谨慎而错失大量收益。相反,认识到市场的长期上升趋势可以帮助投资者保持增长导向的视角。
5. 政府债务恐惧常被夸大
“赤字并不坏,但盈余会杀死你。”
债务负担能力比规模更重要。 尽管政府债务水平看起来令人担忧,但关键是要考虑偿还债务的成本相对于经济规模的比例。目前,美国联邦债务利息支付占GDP的比例接近历史低点,使得债务负担比看起来更易管理。
关键债务见解:
- 当前美国联邦债务利息支付:约占GDP的2%
- 历史范围:占GDP的1.5%到3%(1940年代-2010年代)
- 英国债务水平超过GDP的100%:几乎从1750年到1850年都是如此
历史上,高政府债务时期并不一定导致经济停滞。例如,尽管18和19世纪英国债务水平很高,但其经济增长和创新显著。
6. 没有单一投资类别永远优越
“正常回报是极端的,而不是平均的。”
市场领导地位轮换。 没有单一的投资类别,如小盘股、大盘股、成长股或价值股,能在长时间内持续优越。领导地位往往根据经济状况、投资者情绪和其他因素而变化。
投资类别见解:
- 小盘股:长期表现优越但有显著的低迷期
- 成长股与价值股:表现取决于利率环境
- 行业领导地位:根据经济周期变化
投资者应避免过于依赖任何单一类别,而应保持多元化的投资组合,以便从领导地位轮换中受益。此外,了解驱动类别表现的因素可以帮助进行战术调整。
7. 政党不决定市场表现
“你的政党并不更好。”
市场表现与政党无关。 与普遍看法相反,无论是民主党还是共和党,都没有在推动股市回报方面有一致的优势。相反,市场表现更紧密地与经济和商业周期相关。
总统周期效应:
- 第1-2年:回报更为可变,平均8.1%和9.0%
- 第3-4年:更为一致的正回报,平均19.4%和10.9%
这一模式是由立法风险规避驱动的,重大政策变化通常发生在总统任期的前两年。投资者应关注基本的经济因素而非政治派别来做出投资决策。
8. 世界一直是全球互联的
“世界一直是非常全球化的——比大多数人想象的更全球化,而且时间更长。”
全球经济同步并不新鲜。 主要发达国家的经济周期在200多年里一直是互联的。这种长期的全球整合与全球化是最近现象的观点相矛盾。
全球市场见解:
- 美国股票:占世界市场资本化的43%
- 非美国股票:占世界市场资本化的57%
- 平均美国投资者的国际配置:14.4%
忽视全球机会的投资者错失了潜在的回报和多元化收益。真正的全球视角可以让投资者抓住全球增长机会,并通过更广泛的多元化更好地管理风险。
最后更新日期:
FAQ
What's Markets Never Forget (But People Do) about?
- Memory and Investing: The book explores how human memory impacts investment decisions, often leading to repeated mistakes. Fisher argues that while markets remember historical events, individuals tend to forget them.
- Historical Context: Fisher uses historical examples to show that many market fears and behaviors are not new. Understanding past market cycles can help investors make better decisions today.
- Behavioral Finance Insights: The book delves into behavioral finance, explaining how emotions like fear and greed can cloud judgment. Fisher encourages recognizing these patterns to improve investment strategies.
Why should I read Markets Never Forget (But People Do)?
- Learn from History: The book provides insights into how historical events shape market behavior, helping readers avoid common pitfalls. Fisher's analysis empowers investors to make informed decisions based on past trends.
- Improve Investment Strategies: By understanding psychological factors influencing investing, readers can develop better strategies. The book offers practical advice on reducing error rates in investment decisions.
- Engaging Writing Style: Fisher's engaging narrative and anecdotes make complex financial concepts accessible. Readers will find the book both informative and enjoyable.
What are the key takeaways of Markets Never Forget (But People Do)?
- Memory Impacts Decisions: Investors often forget past market behaviors, leading to repeated mistakes. Fisher emphasizes the importance of historical awareness in making sound investment choices.
- Volatility is Normal: Market volatility is a natural part of investing and should not be feared. Understanding this can help investors remain calm during turbulent times.
- Global Interconnectedness: Recognizing the global nature of markets is crucial. Events in one region can affect others, and this perspective can help investors make more informed decisions.
What are the best quotes from Markets Never Forget (But People Do) and what do they mean?
- “The four most expensive words in the English language are, ‘This time it’s different.’”: This quote warns against assuming current market conditions are unprecedented. It serves as a reminder to look to history for guidance.
- “Forgetting pain is a survival instinct, but unfortunately, that means we also forget the lessons.”: While forgetting past pain helps humans cope, it can lead to repeated mistakes in investing. This highlights the need for historical awareness.
- “Investing is a probabilities game, not a certainties game.”: Investors should focus on understanding probabilities rather than seeking guaranteed outcomes. It encourages a more strategic approach to investing.
How does Markets Never Forget (But People Do) address the concept of cognitive biases?
- Cognitive Bias Awareness: Fisher discusses various cognitive biases affecting investors, such as confirmation and recency bias. These biases can lead to poor decision-making.
- Historical Lessons: The book uses historical examples to show how cognitive biases have led to significant market errors. Understanding these biases can help investors navigate their decision-making processes.
- Strategies to Mitigate Bias: Fisher offers strategies for overcoming cognitive biases, such as relying on historical data and maintaining a long-term perspective. This can lead to more rational investment choices.
What is the concept of "secular bear markets" in Markets Never Forget (But People Do)?
- Definition of Secular Bear Markets: Fisher defines them as prolonged periods where stock prices trend downward over many years. He argues that true secular bears are rare.
- Historical Context: The book discusses periods like 1965-1981 and 2000-2009, often cited as secular bear markets. Fisher contends these included significant bull markets that are overlooked.
- Critique of Secular Bear Beliefs: Fisher suggests that long-term bear markets are often just a series of corrections within overall upward trends. He encourages recognizing market resilience over time.
How does Markets Never Forget (But People Do) explain volatility?
- Volatility is Normal: Fisher asserts that volatility is a natural part of market behavior and should be expected. Both upswings and downswings are normal and do not necessarily indicate a long-term trend.
- Historical Volatility Patterns: The book provides historical examples showing that volatility has always existed and is not increasing over time. Fisher uses standard deviation to illustrate this point.
- Investor Reactions to Volatility: Emotional reactions to volatility often lead to poor decision-making. Fisher advises maintaining a long-term perspective to mitigate short-term fluctuations.
What is the "V-bounce" concept in Markets Never Forget (But People Do)?
- Definition of V-Bounce: The V-bounce refers to the sharp recovery in stock prices following a significant market decline. This pattern is common after bear markets.
- Historical Examples: The book cites instances like the recoveries after the 2008 financial crisis. These recoveries can be substantial and occur quickly.
- Implications for Investors: Understanding the V-bounce can help investors recognize opportunities during market downturns. Fisher encourages staying invested during bear markets to benefit from the recovery.
How does Markets Never Forget (But People Do) address the concept of "jobless recovery"?
- Definition of Jobless Recovery: A jobless recovery is when the economy grows, but employment does not increase correspondingly. This phenomenon is common and often misinterpreted.
- Historical Context: Jobless recoveries have occurred in the past and are not indicative of long-term economic weakness. Employment typically lags behind economic growth.
- Investor Misunderstandings: Fears surrounding jobless recoveries can lead to poor investment decisions. Fisher encourages focusing on broader economic indicators rather than just employment figures.
What specific methods does Kenneth L. Fisher recommend for improving investment strategies?
- Historical Analysis: Fisher recommends studying historical market data to identify patterns and trends. This helps investors understand the cyclical nature of markets.
- Diversification: Emphasizing diversification across asset classes and geographies helps manage risk. A well-diversified portfolio can enhance performance and reduce volatility.
- Focus on Fundamentals: Fisher advises focusing on fundamental analysis rather than short-term market movements. This encourages a more rational and informed investment strategy.
How does Markets Never Forget (But People Do) explain the relationship between politics and market performance?
- Political Influence: Political events and policies can impact market performance, but no single party is inherently better for stocks. Fisher emphasizes looking beyond political biases.
- Historical Patterns: Historical data shows how markets have reacted to different political administrations. Long-term trends are more influenced by broader economic factors.
- Legislative Risk Aversion: Political risk aversion tends to be higher early in a president's term, leading to variable market performance. Understanding this can help anticipate market reactions.
What are the implications of Markets Never Forget (But People Do) for long-term investors?
- Long-Term Perspective: Fisher advocates for a long-term strategy focusing on historical trends and fundamentals. This helps avoid emotional decision-making.
- Understanding Market Cycles: Recognizing market cycles and understanding that downturns are often followed by recoveries is crucial. Long-term investors should be prepared for volatility.
- Continuous Learning: Fisher encourages continuous education about market history and trends. This ongoing learning helps make more informed decisions and improve investment outcomes.
评论
《市场从不遗忘(但人们会)》总体评价较为正面,平均评分为3.88/5。读者欣赏费舍尔对市场趋势的历史视角以及他将当前事件置于背景中的能力。该书因其在行为金融学、市场周期以及从历史中学习的重要性方面的见解而受到赞誉。一些人批评费舍尔的写作风格重复或过于简单,而另一些人则认为其风格引人入胜。许多读者认为费舍尔对市场迷思的分析以及他对长期投资原则的强调具有很高的价值。
Similar Books









