2030

1. Demographic shifts will reshape the global landscape by 2030

By 2030, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa will be vying for the title of the world's most populous region.

Global population dynamics are shifting dramatically. While fertility rates are declining in most developed countries, Africa and parts of Asia continue to experience population growth. This demographic divergence will have profound implications for economic development, resource allocation, and geopolitical influence.

• Key demographic trends:
  • Declining fertility rates in Europe and East Asia
  • Continued population growth in Africa and South Asia
  • Aging populations in developed countries
  • Increasing urbanization globally

Immigration patterns will also play a crucial role in shaping future demographics. Countries with aging populations may need to rely more heavily on immigration to maintain their workforces, while rapidly growing regions may face challenges in providing opportunities for their expanding youth populations.

2. The aging population will become a dominant economic force

By 2030, the world will have 400 million more [people above the age of sixty], mostly in Europe, North America, and China.

The "gray market" is set to become a major economic driver. As life expectancy increases and birth rates decline in many countries, the proportion of older adults in the population will grow significantly. This shift will create both challenges and opportunities for businesses and policymakers.

• Key impacts of the aging population:
  • Increased demand for healthcare and long-term care services
  • Growing market for products and services tailored to older adults
  • Pressure on pension systems and social safety nets
  • Potential for "gerontechnology" innovations

Rethinking retirement will be crucial as people live longer, healthier lives. Many older adults may choose to work longer, either out of necessity or desire, leading to a reimagining of traditional career trajectories and the concept of retirement itself.

3. The rise of the middle class in emerging markets will shift economic power

By 2030, China, India, and the rest of Asia (excluding Japan) will be home to more than half of global consumer purchasing power (adjusted for inflation).

Emerging market consumers will become the primary drivers of global economic growth. As hundreds of millions of people in countries like China and India join the middle class, their purchasing power and consumption patterns will reshape industries and markets worldwide.

• Key emerging market trends:
  • Rapid urbanization and infrastructure development
  • Increasing demand for consumer goods and services
  • Growing importance of local and regional brands
  • Shift in global manufacturing and supply chains

Cultural nuances will be crucial for businesses seeking to tap into these new markets. Companies will need to adapt their products, marketing strategies, and business models to cater to the preferences and values of emerging market consumers, who may have different priorities and expectations than their counterparts in developed economies.

4. Women's increasing wealth and influence will transform society

By 2030, more than half of the world's total wealth will be owned by women.

Economic empowerment of women is accelerating across the globe. As women gain greater access to education, enter the workforce in larger numbers, and assume leadership positions, their economic clout and societal influence will grow substantially.

• Areas of women's increasing influence:
  • Entrepreneurship and business leadership
  • Political representation and policymaking
  • Consumer spending and investment decisions
  • Reshaping of workplace cultures and practices

Shifting family dynamics will accompany women's economic advancement. Traditional gender roles and family structures may evolve as women gain more economic independence and men take on greater caregiving responsibilities. This shift could have far-reaching implications for everything from childcare policies to consumer product design.

5. Cities will be at the forefront of both innovation and challenges

Cities account for 75 percent of total energy consumption and 80 percent of total carbon emissions.

Urban centers will be the primary battlegrounds for addressing global challenges such as climate change, inequality, and technological disruption. As more people flock to cities in search of opportunities, urban areas will need to become smarter, more sustainable, and more inclusive.

• Key urban trends and challenges:
  • Rapid urbanization in developing countries
  • Need for sustainable infrastructure and transportation
  • Growing inequality and gentrification in many cities
  • Potential for urban agriculture and circular economies

Smart city technologies will play a crucial role in making urban areas more livable and efficient. From IoT-enabled infrastructure to data-driven urban planning, technological innovations will help cities manage resources more effectively and improve quality of life for residents.

6. Technological disruption will revolutionize work and daily life

By 2030, the average sixty-year-old can expect to live for another twenty-two years; in the developed world, that number grows to twenty-five years.

Artificial intelligence and automation will transform the job market and workforce. Many traditional occupations may become obsolete, while new roles and industries emerge. This shift will require a fundamental rethinking of education, skills training, and career development.

• Key technological disruptions:
  • AI and machine learning in various industries
  • Robotics and automation in manufacturing and services
  • Virtual and augmented reality for work and leisure
  • Advances in healthcare and life extension technologies

Ethical considerations will become increasingly important as technology becomes more pervasive and powerful. Society will need to grapple with questions about privacy, data ownership, algorithmic bias, and the societal impacts of technologies like genetic engineering and brain-computer interfaces.

7. The sharing economy will redefine ownership and consumption

By 2030 nearly half of our spending will be in the form of "collaborative" or "shared" consumption, which will include cars, homes, offices, gadgets, and personal items of all sorts.

Collaborative consumption will become mainstream across various sectors. Platforms that enable sharing of assets, skills, and resources will continue to grow, challenging traditional business models and notions of ownership.

• Key sharing economy sectors:
  • Transportation (ride-sharing, car-sharing)
  • Accommodation (home-sharing, co-living)
  • Workspaces (co-working, flexible offices)
  • Skills and services (gig economy platforms)

Sustainability benefits may arise from the sharing economy, as more efficient use of resources could reduce overall consumption and waste. However, regulatory challenges and concerns about worker protections in the gig economy will need to be addressed to ensure equitable outcomes.

8. New forms of currency will challenge traditional financial systems

By 2030, those national currency monopolies will be eroded, just as past monopolies in the airline, electricity, and telecommunications industries were.

Cryptocurrencies and digital tokens will continue to gain traction, potentially disrupting traditional banking and monetary systems. Blockchain technology may enable new forms of decentralized finance and asset ownership.

• Potential impacts of new currencies:
  • Reduced transaction costs for international transfers
  • Greater financial inclusion for the unbanked
  • Challenges to central bank monetary policies
  • New forms of digital assets and tokenization

Regulatory frameworks will need to evolve to address the challenges and opportunities presented by these new financial technologies. Governments and financial institutions will grapple with how to balance innovation with consumer protection and financial stability.

Last updated: September 20, 2024