A World Undone

1. The Assassination Ignited a Tinderbox of Pre-Existing Tensions

It has grown out of a lifelong fascination with the war that George F. Kennan called “the great seminal catastrophe”—the one out of which a century of catastrophes arose.

Balkans' Instability. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914, was the spark that ignited World War I, but the region was already a hotbed of ethnic and political tensions. The Balkan Peninsula was a volatile mix of competing nationalisms, decaying empires, and great power rivalries.

Serbian Nationalism. Serbian nationalists, seeking to unite all Serbs under one banner, posed a direct threat to Austria-Hungary's control over Bosnia. The Black Hand, a secret Serbian society, orchestrated the assassination, highlighting the deep-seated animosity between Serbia and Austria-Hungary.

Great Power Rivalries. The assassination drew in the great powers of Europe, each with their own strategic interests and alliances. Russia, seeking to protect its Slavic brethren, clashed with Austria-Hungary, which aimed to maintain its dominance in the Balkans. Germany, bound by alliance to Austria-Hungary, stood against France and Britain, who sought to contain German power.

2. Austria-Hungary's Response Was Fueled by a Desire to Reassert Dominance

Within forty-eight hours of the assassination he was calling for “a final and fundamental reckoning with Serbia.”

Declining Empire. Austria-Hungary, a multi-ethnic empire struggling to maintain its power in a rapidly changing world, saw Serbia as a direct threat to its stability. The assassination provided a pretext for Austria-Hungary to crush Serbia and reassert its dominance in the Balkans.

Internal Pressures. The empire faced internal pressures from various ethnic groups seeking independence or unification with neighboring states. A decisive victory over Serbia was seen as a way to quell these internal tensions and preserve the empire.

Berchtold and Conrad's Influence. Key figures like Foreign Minister Berchtold and Field Marshal Conrad von Hötzendorf advocated for a swift and forceful response to Serbia. Berchtold, seeking to repair his reputation, pushed for a "final reckoning," while Conrad, a long-time proponent of war with Serbia, saw the assassination as an opportunity to achieve his goals.

3. Germany's "Blank Check" Enabled Austria's Aggression

It was his opinion that this action must not be delayed...we might be convinced that Germany, our old faithful ally, would stand at our side.

Unconditional Support. Kaiser Wilhelm II's promise of unconditional support to Austria-Hungary, known as the "blank check," emboldened Vienna to take a hard line against Serbia. Germany's commitment to stand by its ally, regardless of the consequences, played a crucial role in escalating the crisis.

Strategic Considerations. Germany feared being isolated in Europe and saw Austria-Hungary as its only reliable ally. Supporting Austria-Hungary, even at the risk of war, was seen as necessary to maintain Germany's position in the European balance of power.

Misunderstanding of Intentions. The Germans did not fully understand Austria-Hungary's intentions or the potential consequences of their actions. They assumed that Austria-Hungary would act quickly and decisively, limiting the conflict to the Balkans.

4. Miscalculations and Missed Opportunities Led to Escalation

The recurrent mistake, it seems to me, has been to only make mention of such things, thereby diluting the story.

Failure of Diplomacy. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand set off a chain reaction of diplomatic missteps and missed opportunities. The great powers of Europe, driven by their own strategic interests and miscalculations, failed to de-escalate the crisis.

Austrian Ultimatum. Austria-Hungary's ultimatum to Serbia was deliberately designed to be unacceptable, ensuring a military response. The harsh demands and short deadline made it nearly impossible for Serbia to comply fully.

Germany's Misjudgment. Germany underestimated Russia's resolve to defend Serbia and failed to anticipate the full consequences of its support for Austria-Hungary. The Kaiser's government was slow to react and failed to keep Vienna informed of its plans.

5. Mobilization Plans Locked Nations on a Path to War

You are setting fire to Europe!

Cumbersome Mobilization. In 1914, mobilization was a complex and time-consuming process, involving the call-up of millions of reservists and the commandeering of entire national railroad systems. The intricate mobilization plans, developed over years, left little room for flexibility or adaptation.

Russia's Mobilization. Russia's decision to mobilize, driven by a desire to protect Serbia and assert its influence in the Balkans, triggered a chain reaction that led to general war. The Russian mobilization, though intended as a deterrent, was perceived by Germany as an act of aggression.

Germany's Inflexible Plan. Germany's Schlieffen Plan, designed to quickly defeat France before turning on Russia, required an immediate invasion of Belgium and Luxembourg. This inflexible plan left little room for diplomacy or de-escalation.

6. Key Leaders Failed to Grasp the Catastrophic Potential

I do not claim to have the answers—am not sure that answers are possible, which is part of what makes the questions so interesting.

Complacency and Misjudgment. Many European leaders, accustomed to resolving crises through diplomacy, failed to grasp the catastrophic potential of the July crisis. They underestimated the resolve of other nations and the destructive power of modern weaponry.

Lack of Communication. Poor communication and misunderstandings between key leaders contributed to the escalation of the crisis. Kaiser Wilhelm II, for example, was often uninformed or misinformed about the actions of his own government.

Individual Actions. The actions of individual leaders, driven by personal ambition, fear, or misjudgment, played a significant role in shaping the course of events. The decisions of Berchtold, Conrad, Sazonov, and others had far-reaching consequences.

7. The War Quickly Became a Bloody Stalemate

The war is unique in the number of questions about it that remain unsettled.

Technological Advancements. The rapid advancements in military technology, particularly the machine gun and artillery, created a defensive advantage that made offensive operations incredibly difficult and costly. Trench warfare, characterized by static lines and devastating firepower, became the dominant form of combat.

Failed Offensives. Repeated attempts to break through the enemy lines resulted in massive casualties and little territorial gain. The Battle of the Marne, the First Battle of Ypres, and other early engagements demonstrated the futility of traditional offensive tactics.

Entrenched Positions. The Western Front became a vast network of trenches, barbed wire, and fortifications, stretching for hundreds of miles. The static nature of the front made it nearly impossible for either side to achieve a decisive breakthrough.

8. The Search for a Decisive Breakthrough Led to New Horrors

To make a great drama of the Great War, one need only be clear and careful and thorough in telling it as it was.

Poison Gas. The introduction of poison gas as a weapon of war added a new dimension of horror to the conflict. Though not particularly effective in achieving strategic objectives, gas attacks caused immense suffering and terror among soldiers.

Mining and Tunneling. Underground warfare, involving the digging of tunnels and the planting of explosives beneath enemy lines, became another gruesome aspect of the conflict. The resulting explosions created massive craters and caused immense destruction.

Flamethrowers. The use of flamethrowers, which projected jets of burning fuel onto enemy positions, added to the already horrific conditions of trench warfare. The flamethrowers were terrifying but of limited effectiveness.

9. The Eastern Front Collapsed, Transforming the War

It is testimony to the power of the story that in all these years of learning about it and developing my own account of it, I have not had one boring day.

Russian Revolution. The internal turmoil and political instability in Russia, culminating in the Bolshevik Revolution, led to the collapse of the Eastern Front. The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, signed in 1918, formally ended Russia's participation in the war.

German Gains. The collapse of the Eastern Front allowed Germany to transfer troops and resources to the Western Front, bolstering its forces and creating new opportunities for offensive operations. However, the gains were short-lived.

New Challenges. The collapse of the Eastern Front also created new challenges for Germany, including the need to occupy and control vast territories in Eastern Europe. The occupation of these territories strained German resources and manpower.

10. The United States Entered the Fray, Shifting the Balance

Among the many people to whom I am grateful as this project comes to completion, I must mention my agent, Judith Riven, and my editor, John Flicker, both of whom have been indispensable and endlessly supportive.

Unrestricted Submarine Warfare. Germany's decision to resume unrestricted submarine warfare, targeting both military and civilian ships, provoked outrage in the United States and ultimately led to American intervention. The sinking of the Lusitania and other passenger liners fueled anti-German sentiment.

Zimmermann Telegram. The Zimmermann Telegram, in which Germany proposed an alliance with Mexico against the United States, further inflamed American public opinion and solidified support for war. The telegram was a diplomatic blunder of immense proportions.

Shift in Momentum. The entry of the United States into the war in April 1917 shifted the balance of power in favor of the Entente. American manpower, resources, and industrial capacity would prove decisive in the long run.

11. The War Transformed Society and Culture

Finally, I must try to express my admiration for and gratitude to those scholars and researchers—among whom I cannot claim to be numbered—who for nearly a century have been devoting their lives to unearthing the buried secrets of the Great War.

Women's Roles. The war led to significant changes in the roles of women in society. With millions of men serving in the armed forces, women entered the workforce in unprecedented numbers, taking on jobs previously held by men.

Technological Advancements. The war spurred rapid advancements in military technology, including the development of tanks, aircraft, and chemical weapons. These advancements transformed the nature of warfare and had a lasting impact on society.

Artistic and Literary Expression. The war profoundly influenced artistic and literary expression. New forms of art and literature emerged, reflecting the disillusionment, trauma, and loss of innocence that characterized the postwar world.

12. The Seeds of Future Conflicts Were Sown in the Aftermath

Without their labors and achievements, works like this one would be impossible.

Unresolved Issues. The Treaty of Versailles, which formally ended the war, failed to address many of the underlying causes of the conflict. The treaty imposed harsh terms on Germany, fueling resentment and creating conditions for future instability.

Rise of Extremism. The war and its aftermath contributed to the rise of extremist ideologies, such as fascism and Nazism, in Europe. These ideologies exploited the economic hardship, social unrest, and political instability that followed the war.

Legacy of Trauma. The war left a lasting legacy of trauma and disillusionment, shaping the political, social, and cultural landscape of the 20th century. The Great War's impact continues to be felt today.

Last updated: April 24, 2025