Black Garden

1. The Spark: Armenian Revolt & Azerbaijani Reaction (Feb 1988)

The dreary language of the resolution hid something truly revolutionary.

Unprecedented Challenge. In February 1988, the local Soviet of Nagorny Karabakh, an Armenian-majority autonomous region within Soviet Azerbaijan, voted to request transfer to Soviet Armenia. This seemingly bureaucratic act was the first time a Soviet institution had openly challenged the internal borders of the USSR, acting as a catalyst for political dissent from below. The move was planned by Armenian activists, some with tacit support from within the Soviet system, who feared the province would lose its Armenian majority.

Initial Protests. The vote followed unsanctioned rallies in Stepanakert, the regional capital, where thousands chanted "Miatsum!" (Unity!). These protests, initially framed as loyal to Gorbachev's reforms, quickly grew, surprising both local and Moscow authorities. While Armenians felt a surge of liberation, the move immediately antagonized the Azerbaijani minority in Karabakh and across Azerbaijan, who saw it as a threat to their republic's integrity.

First Blood. Tensions escalated rapidly. Reports of violence against Azerbaijanis in Armenia and Armenians in Azerbaijan emerged. On February 22, clashes near Aghdam, an Azerbaijani town, resulted in the deaths of two Azerbaijanis, marking the first fatalities of the conflict. This incident fueled anger and counter-protests, setting a dangerous precedent for future violence.

2. Sumgait & Baku: Violence Erupts (Feb 1988 - Jan 1990)

The peacetime Soviet Union had never before experienced what happened next.

Sumgait Pogroms. Days after the Karabakh vote, the industrial city of Sumgait, near Baku, erupted in horrific anti-Armenian violence from February 27-29, 1988. Mobs, fueled by rumors and resentment over housing shortages and the influx of Azerbaijani refugees from Armenia, attacked Armenian residents with extreme savagery, resulting in dozens of deaths, rapes, and widespread destruction. The local police did little to intervene, and Soviet troops were slow to restore order.

Watershed Moment. Sumgait was a turning point, shattering the myth of Soviet ethnic harmony and deeply traumatizing Armenians, who immediately drew parallels to the 1915 Genocide. It fueled a sense of existential threat and the conviction that armed self-defense was necessary. For Azerbaijanis, the event was complex: while many were horrified, the official downplaying of the violence and conspiracy theories blaming Armenians or the KGB sowed further distrust.

Baku's Black January. Tensions in Baku simmered, exacerbated by the arrival of Azerbaijani refugees from Armenia. In January 1990, following renewed fighting in Karabakh and political maneuvering, anti-Armenian pogroms again swept Baku. Mobs attacked the remaining Armenian population, leading to around 90 deaths and the final expulsion of most Armenians from the city. This violence provided the pretext for Moscow to send in troops on January 20, killing over 130 Azerbaijanis in a brutal crackdown that solidified Azerbaijani opposition to Soviet rule.

3. Political Mobilization & Soviet Collapse (1988-1991)

The Karabakh issue had opened cracks in the Politburo consensus...

Rise of Popular Movements. The Karabakh crisis galvanized mass political movements in both republics. In Armenia, the Karabakh Committee, initially focused on unification, evolved into the Armenian National Movement (ANM), advocating for broader democratic reforms and eventually independence. In Azerbaijan, intellectuals formed the Popular Front, which gained mass support, particularly after the November 1988 Baku protests and the January 1990 crackdown.

Moscow's Dilemma. The Soviet leadership under Gorbachev was caught off guard and struggled to contain the crisis. They rejected border changes but were reluctant to use overwhelming force, instead attempting dialogue and limited interventions like sending Interior Ministry troops and appointing special representatives like Arkady Volsky. However, mixed messages and internal divisions within the Politburo and security agencies undermined their authority.

Path to Independence. The crisis accelerated the disintegration of the USSR. Armenia, under the ANM, moved decisively towards independence, holding a referendum in September 1991. Azerbaijan, initially more cautious and participating in Gorbachev's Union Treaty efforts, was pushed towards independence by the January 1990 events and the collapse of Soviet authority. Both republics declared independence in late 1991, inheriting the unresolved conflict and the remnants of Soviet military hardware.

4. Historical Narratives & Identity Conflict

The first feathery leaves were coming out on the trees in the graveyard of Hurekavank.

Contested Past. The conflict is deeply rooted in competing historical narratives, particularly concerning Nagorny Karabakh. Both Armenians and Azerbaijanis claim ancient ties to the region, viewing it as central to their national identity. Armenian historians emphasize ancient Artsakh and medieval Armenian principalities (meliks), while Azerbaijani historians highlight the region's history under Turkic khans and controversial theories linking Azerbaijanis to ancient Caucasian Albanians.

Weaponizing History. This historical debate became highly politicized in the late Soviet era, fueled by nationalist intellectuals on both sides. Figures like Armenian Zori Balayan and Azerbaijani Zia Buniatov engaged in polemical exchanges, using tendentious scholarship to denigrate the other side's claims and incite hatred. This "war of historians" created mutually exclusive versions of the past, making compromise on territorial claims seem like a betrayal of history itself.

Cultural Erasure. The conflict led to the destruction or neglect of the other side's cultural heritage in areas under control. Armenian churches in Azerbaijan and Azerbaijani mosques and cemeteries in Armenia and occupied territories were damaged or erased, physically manifesting the desire to deny the other's historical presence. This deliberate destruction of shared or contested heritage further deepened the divide and made reconciliation more difficult.

5. War Breaks Out: Arming & Early Battles (Aug 1991 - May 1992)

War was never declared in Nagorny Karabakh, and only at the very end was it waged between two armies.

Power Vacuum. The final collapse of the Soviet Union in late 1991 left Armenia and Azerbaijan independent but without established armies. The conflict escalated from skirmishes and expulsions to open warfare as both sides scrambled to acquire weapons from departing Soviet bases. This period was characterized by chaotic volunteer units and paramilitary groups rather than organized national armies.

Arming the Sides. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan inherited Soviet military equipment based on the Tashkent agreement, but also acquired vast amounts through unofficial means, often by cutting deals with corrupt Soviet officers. Azerbaijan initially had an advantage due to more Soviet bases on its territory. Armenia, however, benefited from a Russian military base remaining on its soil and later received significant arms shipments from Russia, authorized by President Yeltsin, to balance Azerbaijan's initial superiority.

Early Clashes. Fighting intensified around Nagorny Karabakh. Armenian forces, often composed of local Karabakhis and volunteers from Armenia, began consolidating control within the former autonomous region, targeting Azerbaijani villages. Azerbaijan, plagued by political infighting and undisciplined units, struggled to mount an effective defense, leading to the displacement of tens of thousands of Azerbaijani civilians from villages within Karabakh.

6. Key Turning Points: Khojali, Shusha, Lachin (Feb - May 1992)

The fall of Shusha came as the Armenian president, Levon Ter-Petrosian, was meeting the acting Azerbaijani leader Yaqub Mamedov in Teheran for peace talks.

Khojali Massacre. In February 1992, Armenian forces, supported by remnants of the Soviet 366th Regiment, launched an assault on Khojali, an Azerbaijani town and the site of Karabakh's airport. As Azerbaijani civilians fled through a designated corridor, they were subjected to heavy gunfire, resulting in hundreds of deaths. The Khojali massacre became a symbol of Azerbaijani suffering and fueled outrage, contributing to the fall of Azerbaijani President Mutalibov.

Shusha's Fall. Following Khojali, Armenian forces targeted Shusha, the historic Azerbaijani-majority town overlooking Stepanakert. Despite its strategic importance and natural defenses, Shusha was poorly defended due to political infighting and lack of coordination on the Azerbaijani side. Armenian forces captured the town on May 8-9, 1992, a significant victory that lifted the siege of Stepanakert and was a major psychological blow to Azerbaijan.

Lachin Corridor. Immediately after taking Shusha, Armenian forces captured Lachin, a town and region connecting Nagorny Karabakh to Armenia. This created a vital land bridge, ending Karabakh's isolation and allowing for direct supply lines from Armenia. The capture of Lachin, like Shusha, occurred with minimal resistance, highlighting the disarray of the Azerbaijani forces and completing the Armenian consolidation of control over the core Karabakh territory and its immediate link to Armenia.

7. Escalation & Armenian Conquests (June 1992 - Sept 1993)

The machine of war could not be stopped.

Azerbaijani Offensive. In June 1992, following the election of Abulfaz Elchibey as president, Azerbaijan launched a major offensive, pushing Armenian forces out of northern Karabakh and occupying nearly half the territory. This offensive was spearheaded by tanks and armored vehicles, often manned by Russian mercenaries, marking a shift to more conventional warfare. However, the advance stalled due to logistical issues and Armenian counterattacks, reportedly aided by Russian air support.

Armenian Counteroffensive. The Karabakh Armenians reorganized under a State Defense Committee led by Robert Kocharian and Serzh Sarkisian, implementing conscription and centralizing military command. Leveraging increased arms supplies from Russia and improved organization, they launched a series of counteroffensives. These operations systematically pushed Azerbaijani forces back and expanded Armenian control beyond the borders of the former autonomous region.

Conquest of Territories. Between June 1993 and October 1993, Armenian forces, exploiting political chaos in Baku (including Suret Husseinov's rebellion and the transition to Heidar Aliev's presidency), conquered seven Azerbaijani regions surrounding Nagorny Karabakh. These included Aghdam, Fizuli, Jebrail, Kubatly, Zengelan, and Kelbajar. This vast territorial gain, representing nearly 14% of Azerbaijan's internationally recognized territory, was achieved with relatively low Armenian casualties but resulted in the expulsion of over half a million Azerbaijanis.

8. The Human Cost: Refugees & Ruin

Wholesale expulsion of civilians was the most terrible feature of the Armenian-Azerbaijani war...

Mass Displacement. The conflict resulted in a massive humanitarian crisis, with hundreds of thousands of civilians forcibly displaced from their homes. Approximately 200,000 Azerbaijanis fled Armenia in 1988-1989, often violently. Between 1992 and 1994, over 500,000 Azerbaijanis were expelled from Nagorny Karabakh and the surrounding occupied territories. On the Armenian side, around 350,000 Armenians fled Azerbaijan.

Refugee Camps. Hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijani refugees ended up in makeshift camps, often living in dire conditions in former cotton fields or overcrowded public buildings. Years after the ceasefire, many remained in limbo, dependent on meager aid and lacking opportunities for work or education. The psychological toll on both children and adults was immense, with many suffering from trauma and a sense of abandonment.

Destroyed Cities. The war left cities and villages in ruins. Towns like Aghdam and Shusha were systematically destroyed, either during fighting or through deliberate looting and burning after capture. This widespread destruction not only erased physical heritage but also served as a barrier to the return of displaced populations, solidifying the new demographic realities created by the conflict.

9. Exhaustion & Ceasefire (Sept 1993 - May 1994)

At midnight on 11–12 May 1994, the ceasefire took effect and—despite a shaky start—it held.

Final Offensive. Despite significant territorial losses, Azerbaijan under President Heidar Aliev launched a major counteroffensive in the winter of 1993-1994, aiming to retake lost ground. This phase saw the heaviest fighting and highest casualties of the war, with thousands of inexperienced conscripts dying in brutal battles, particularly in the Kelbajar region mountains.

Military Stalemate. The winter offensive failed to achieve significant breakthroughs, demonstrating that neither side could achieve a decisive military victory without incurring unsustainable losses. Both armies were exhausted, demoralized, and facing severe logistical challenges. This military stalemate created the necessary conditions for a ceasefire.

Bishkek Protocol. International mediation efforts, particularly by Russia's Vladimir Kazimirov, intensified. In May 1994, a meeting in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, led to the drafting of a protocol calling for a ceasefire. After intense negotiations and internal debate, both Armenia and Azerbaijan, along with the Karabakh Armenian leadership, signed the agreement. The ceasefire, brokered primarily by Russia, took effect on May 12, ending the active phase of the war but leaving the underlying political issues unresolved.

10. No War, No Peace: Post-Conflict Stalemate (1994-2001)

In May 1994, both Armenia and Azerbaijan entered a state of frozen conflict, in which mass violence had ended but the political dispute was unresolved.

Frozen Conflict. The 1994 ceasefire established a static front line, but no peace treaty was signed, leaving the conflict in a state of "no war, no peace." Armenian forces controlled Nagorny Karabakh and seven surrounding Azerbaijani regions. Azerbaijan maintained an economic blockade on Armenia and refused to normalize relations until its territories were returned.

Political Consolidation. In the post-ceasefire period, both Armenia and Azerbaijan consolidated power under strong leaders. Heidar Aliev established firm control in Azerbaijan, leveraging the country's oil wealth and suppressing opposition. In Armenia, the "Karabakh Party," led by Robert Kocharian and Vazgen Sarkisian, gained increasing influence, eventually leading to the resignation of President Ter-Petrosian in 1998 and Kocharian's election as president.

Mediation Efforts. The OSCE Minsk Group, co-chaired by France, Russia, and the United States, became the primary international mediation forum. Despite various peace proposals, including a "step-by-step" plan and ideas for territorial exchanges, fundamental disagreements on the status of Nagorny Karabakh and the return of occupied territories prevented a breakthrough. The lack of trust and competing interests among the mediators and parties hindered progress.

11. The Unpredictable Past & Future

If I formed one overriding impression from my travels around the south Caucasus, it is that the lines of division run straight through the middle of people.

Internal Divisions. The conflict revealed deep divisions not just between Armenians and Azerbaijanis, but within each society and even within individuals. Personal friendships often clashed with national loyalties. The experience of war and displacement created trauma and bitterness, but also instances of unexpected kindness and shared humanity, as seen in places like the Sadakhlo market or the stories of former neighbors.

Dangerous Narratives. Official propaganda and historical revisionism on both sides continue to perpetuate "hate narratives," portraying the other as an aggressor and denying their suffering. These one-sided accounts, often amplified by politicians and media, hinder reconciliation and make it difficult for ordinary people to move beyond the past. The focus on victimhood prevents acknowledgment of shared responsibility for the bloodshed.

Uncertain Future. The unresolved conflict leaves the region in a precarious state. The vast refugee population in Azerbaijan remains a source of instability. Armenia faces economic hardship and emigration due to isolation. While direct war is unlikely in the short term, the risk of renewed conflict remains, potentially involving external powers. A just and lasting peace requires painful compromises, addressing historical grievances, and fostering dialogue and cooperation, but the political will and public support for such steps remain fragile.

Last updated: June 8, 2025