Blueprint for Revolution

1. Nonviolent resistance is twice as effective as violent methods

"Nonviolent resistance campaigns were nearly twice as likely to achieve full or partial success as their violent counterparts."

Empirical evidence supports nonviolence. A comprehensive study by Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephan analyzed 323 conflicts between 1900 and 2006. They found that nonviolent campaigns had a 53% success rate, compared to only 26% for violent campaigns. This stark difference highlights the strategic advantage of peaceful resistance.

Long-term benefits of nonviolence:

• 40% chance of remaining a democracy after 5 years (vs. 5% for violent campaigns)
• 28% chance of civil war relapse within a decade (vs. 43% for violent campaigns)
• Greater ability to attract widespread participation and international support
• More likely to cause defections within the opponent's power structure

2. Start with small, winnable battles to build momentum

"Pick battles big enough to matter, but small enough to win."

Strategic selection of objectives. Successful movements often begin by targeting specific, achievable goals rather than immediately tackling systemic issues. This approach allows activists to:

• Build confidence and experience
• Demonstrate effectiveness to potential supporters
• Create momentum for larger challenges

Examples of effective small battles:

• Itzik Alrov's cottage cheese protest in Israel
• Harvey Milk's campaign against dog waste in San Francisco
• Gandhi's salt march in India

These seemingly minor issues resonated with the public and served as entry points for broader social and political change.

3. Develop a clear vision of tomorrow to inspire and unite

"After all, this was new territory for the Egyptians, and maybe they just needed to get used to it."

Articulate a compelling future. A well-defined vision of tomorrow serves as a rallying point for diverse groups and individuals. It should:

• Address common aspirations and grievances
• Be specific enough to guide action, yet broad enough to attract wide support
• Evolve as the movement progresses

Key components of an effective vision:

• Concrete improvements in daily life (e.g., economic opportunities, personal freedoms)
• Clear contrast with the current situation
• Emotional appeal that resonates across different segments of society

Movements that successfully communicate their vision, like Otpor! in Serbia or the Egyptian revolutionaries in Tahrir Square, are better positioned to maintain unity and overcome obstacles.

4. Use humor and creativity to challenge authority

"Against the assault of laughter nothing can stand."

Laughtivism as a powerful tool. Humor and creative tactics can:

• Break fear and build confidence among activists
• Add a "cool factor" to attract new supporters
• Provoke clumsy reactions from opponents, undermining their credibility

Examples of effective laughtivism:

• Otpor!'s "Milošević on a barrel" stunt in Serbia
• Polish activists' "TV set walks" during Communist rule
• Iranian women sneaking into soccer matches disguised as men

These actions not only captured public attention but also exposed the absurdity of oppressive systems, making them harder to defend.

5. Make oppression backfire by exposing its weaknesses

"Oppression isn't some demonic force that bubbles up from some deep, festering well of evil in the blackened hearts of your opponents. Rather, it is almost always a calculated decision."

Strategic response to repression. When faced with oppression, activists can:

• Expose the injustice to a wider audience
• Demonstrate the moral superiority of their cause
• Create dilemmas for authorities, forcing them into lose-lose situations

Tactics to make oppression backfire:

• Document and publicize acts of violence against peaceful protesters
• Use symbolic actions that highlight the contrast between oppressors and activists
• Create scenarios where authorities must choose between repression and concession

The murder of Khaled Said in Egypt and the crackdown on monks in Burma are examples of oppression that backfired, galvanizing public support for change.

6. Unity is crucial: bring diverse groups together under a common cause

"Unity is a tricky thing, though. It's not only one of the most important elements of successful nonviolent action but also the hardest to achieve."

Building coalitions for change. Successful movements must:

• Identify common interests among diverse groups
• Create a shared identity and sense of purpose
• Overcome internal divisions and external attempts to divide

Strategies for fostering unity:

• Develop inclusive messaging that resonates across different sectors of society
• Create spaces for dialogue and collaboration between groups
• Address the needs and concerns of potential allies

The Egyptian revolution's early success in bringing together Muslims and Christians, and Otpor!'s ability to unite opposition parties in Serbia, demonstrate the power of unity in nonviolent struggles.

7. Plan strategically, but be flexible in tactics

"Strategic nonviolent struggle is all about political power, how to seize political power and how to deny it to others."

Balance long-term strategy with adaptable tactics. Effective planning involves:

• Defining clear, achievable objectives (the "goose egg")
• Analyzing pillars of support for the current system
• Developing a sequence of actions to weaken those pillars

Key planning concepts:

• Grand strategy: Overall conception of how to achieve objectives
• Strategy: Distribution and application of available resources
• Tactics: Specific actions and methods used in the moment

The inverse planning sequence, starting from the desired end state and working backward, can help activists develop more coherent and effective campaigns.

8. Maintain nonviolent discipline to gain moral high ground

"Violence scares people, and when people are scared, they look for a strong leader to protect them."

Importance of nonviolent discipline. Maintaining nonviolence:

• Attracts broader participation and sympathy
• Makes it harder for opponents to justify repression
• Increases the likelihood of defections from the opposing side

Strategies for maintaining nonviolence:

• Educate activists about the strategic advantages of nonviolence
• Train participants in de-escalation techniques
• Quickly distance the movement from any violent acts by fringe elements

The success of movements like the U.S. Civil Rights Movement and the Philippine People Power Revolution demonstrates the power of sustained nonviolent discipline.

9. Recognize victories and know when to declare success

"Declaring victory is a delicate thing."

Strategic celebration of achievements. Knowing when and how to declare victory:

• Maintains momentum and morale
• Prevents overreach or premature dissolution of the movement
• Sets the stage for next steps

Considerations for declaring victory:

• Assess whether immediate objectives have been met
• Evaluate the sustainability of gains
• Prepare for potential backlash or attempts to reverse progress

The contrast between the successful salt march in India and the tragic outcome of the Tiananmen Square protests illustrates the importance of recognizing and capitalizing on victories at the right moment.

10. Finish what you start: ensure lasting change after initial wins

"The glamorous achievement of toppling a dictatorship only counts as a victory if the not-so-glamorous task of putting a democracy in its place has been accomplished."

Sustaining momentum for long-term change. After initial successes, movements must:

• Continue to engage and mobilize supporters
• Monitor and hold accountable new power structures
• Address underlying issues that led to the initial struggle

Strategies for long-term success:

• Develop institutions and processes to support democratic governance
• Cultivate new leadership and transfer skills to a broader base
• Maintain vigilance against attempts to reverse progress

The contrasting outcomes in Serbia (where Otpor! continued to monitor the new government) and Egypt (where activists declared victory prematurely) highlight the importance of finishing what movements start.

11. It had to be you: the power of individual action

"You must ensure that whatever changes you bring about are going to be durable and stable."

Empowering individual activism. Ordinary people can make extraordinary changes when they:

• Recognize their potential to affect change
• Start with issues that directly impact their communities
• Build coalitions and leverage existing social networks

Steps for individual activists:

• Identify a specific, achievable goal
• Research and understand the power dynamics at play
• Develop creative, nonviolent tactics to address the issue
• Persistently engage with decision-makers and stakeholders

The story of "Kathy" and her fight against a mall development near a school demonstrates how individual citizens can effectively challenge entrenched interests and bring about positive change in their communities.

(illustration credit 11.2)

Last updated: January 22, 2025