Enlightenment Now

1. Progress is real: Life has improved dramatically across multiple dimensions

The world does agree on these values. In the year 2000, all 189 members of the United Nations, together with two dozen international organizations, agreed on eight Millennium Development Goals for the year 2015 that blend right into this list.

Quantifiable improvements. Life expectancy, health, wealth, safety, knowledge, and freedom have all increased substantially over time. Global life expectancy rose from 29 years in 1770 to 71.4 years in 2015. Extreme poverty has fallen from 90% of the global population in 1800 to less than 10% today. Child mortality dropped from 43% in 1800 to 4.3% in 2015.

Widespread benefits. These gains are not limited to developed countries but have spread globally. Even in the poorest regions, people today live longer, healthier, and more prosperous lives than their ancestors. The pace of progress has accelerated in recent decades, with developing countries catching up rapidly to developed world standards.

Overlooked improvements. Despite common perceptions, violence has declined, democracy has spread, and human rights have expanded. Environmental problems, while serious, are increasingly being addressed through technology and policy. These positive trends are often overlooked due to cognitive biases and media focus on negative events.

2. The Enlightenment ideals drive human progress

The Enlightenment has worked—perhaps the greatest story seldom told. And because this triumph is so unsung, the underlying ideals of reason, science, and humanism are unappreciated as well.

Core principles. The Enlightenment emphasized reason, science, humanism, and progress. These ideals reject dogma, promote skepticism, value human welfare, and believe in the possibility of improving the human condition through rational thought and action.

Ongoing relevance. While often taken for granted, Enlightenment values continue to drive progress in the modern world. They underpin scientific research, technological innovation, democratic governance, and human rights movements. The expansion of knowledge and critical thinking skills enables societies to solve problems and improve living conditions.

Challenges to progress. Counter-Enlightenment movements, including religious fundamentalism, authoritarian populism, and postmodern relativism, pose threats to these ideals. Maintaining and spreading Enlightenment values is crucial for continued human progress.

3. Science and reason are powerful tools for solving problems

People have also lost their comforting faith in the goodness of their institutions. The historian William O'Neill entitled his history of the Baby Boomers' childhood years American High: The Years of Confidence, 1945–1960. In that era, everything seemed great.

Scientific method. The application of reason and the scientific method has led to enormous advances in knowledge and problem-solving capacity. This approach involves forming hypotheses, gathering evidence, and revising theories based on new information.

Technological progress. Scientific knowledge has enabled technological breakthroughs that have transformed human life. Examples include:

• Medical advances (vaccines, antibiotics, surgical techniques)
• Agricultural innovations (fertilizers, crop breeding, mechanization)
• Information technology (computers, internet, smartphones)

Overcoming cognitive biases. While humans are prone to cognitive biases and logical fallacies, scientific thinking provides tools to overcome these limitations. Critical thinking, statistical analysis, and peer review help separate fact from fiction and drive evidence-based decision-making.

4. Economic growth and technological innovation reduce poverty and improve lives

A decline is not the same thing as a disappearance. (The statement "x > y" is different from the statement "y = 0.") Something can decrease a lot without vanishing altogether.

Wealth creation. Economic growth, driven by market economies and technological innovation, has lifted billions out of poverty. Global GDP per capita has grown nearly 15-fold since 1820, adjusting for inflation and purchasing power.

Improving living standards. As societies become wealthier, they can invest in:

• Better healthcare and nutrition
• Education and skill development
• Infrastructure and public services
• Environmental protection

Technological benefits. Innovations reduce costs and increase access to goods and services that improve quality of life. Examples include:

• Affordable lighting (43,000-fold improvement in affordability since 1800)
• Labor-saving home appliances
• Global communications and information access

5. Violence and war have declined significantly over time

So has the world really gone steadily downhill during these decades? Keep figure 4-1 in mind as we examine the state of humanity in the chapters to come.

Long-term decline. Despite perceptions of increasing violence, rates of homicide, war deaths, and other forms of violence have decreased dramatically over centuries and decades. The chance of dying in war or from interpersonal violence is far lower today than in the past.

Reasons for decline:

• Stronger state monopoly on violence
• Expansion of trade and economic interdependence
• Spread of democracy and human rights norms
• Improved law enforcement and conflict resolution mechanisms

Remaining challenges. While violence has declined overall, significant conflicts and crime persist in some regions. Terrorism, while highly publicized, accounts for a tiny fraction of global violence. Continuing efforts to promote peace and reduce violence are necessary.

6. Democracy and human rights have expanded globally

The uncanny assemblage of scientific, institutional, legal, and social forces all pushing to strip government of its power to kill makes it seem as if there really is a mysterious arc bending toward justice.

Democratic growth. The number of democracies in the world has increased from 12 in 1945 to 103 in 2015, now covering 56% of the world's population. Even many non-democratic countries have become less repressive over time.

Human rights improvements:

• Abolition of slavery and forced labor
• Expansion of women's rights and gender equality
• Increased protections for minorities and LGBTQ+ individuals
• Decline in use of torture and capital punishment

Ongoing struggles. While significant progress has been made, human rights abuses and democratic backsliding continue in many parts of the world. Vigilance and ongoing efforts are required to maintain and expand these gains.

7. Education and knowledge empower individuals and societies

Progress can take place when the reversals in a positive trend become less frequent, become less severe, or, in some cases, cease altogether.

Rising education levels. Global literacy rates have increased from 12% in 1820 to over 86% today. Average years of schooling have risen dramatically, from 2 years in 1870 to 8.6 years in 2015. Higher education enrollment has also expanded significantly.

Benefits of education:

• Increased economic productivity and innovation
• Better health outcomes and decision-making
• Greater civic participation and democratic engagement
• Reduced violence and conflict

Knowledge accessibility. The internet and digital technologies have democratized access to information. Online courses, educational videos, and digital libraries make knowledge available to billions of people at little or no cost.

8. Environmental challenges can be addressed through human ingenuity

The beauty of scientific progress is that it never locks us into a technology but can develop new ones with fewer problems than the old ones.

Environmental Kuznets Curve. As societies become wealthier, they tend to prioritize environmental protection and develop cleaner technologies. Many forms of pollution have decreased in developed countries despite economic growth.

Technological solutions:

• Renewable energy (solar, wind, nuclear)
• Energy efficiency improvements
• Agricultural innovations reducing land and water use
• Waste reduction and recycling technologies

Policy approaches. Market-based policies like carbon pricing, combined with targeted regulations and investments in research and development, can drive innovation and reduce environmental impacts while maintaining economic growth.

9. Happiness and well-being have increased, despite common perceptions

You might think that the question is so subjective and culturally relative as to be forever unanswerable. In fact, it's one of the easier questions to answer.

Rising life satisfaction. Contrary to popular belief, global surveys show that people in most countries are becoming happier over time. This correlates strongly with rising incomes and improvements in health, education, and personal freedom.

Factors influencing happiness:

• Meeting basic needs (food, shelter, safety)
• Social connections and relationships
• Sense of purpose and meaning
• Personal autonomy and control

Challenges to well-being. While overall trends are positive, mental health issues, inequality, and social isolation remain concerns in many societies. Addressing these challenges can further improve human well-being.

10. Existential risks exist but can be mitigated through rational approaches

How should we think about catastrophic threats? Let's begin with the greatest existential question of all, the fate of our species.

Potential risks:

• Nuclear warfare
• Climate change
• Pandemics
• Artificial intelligence
• Asteroids and natural disasters

Rational risk assessment. While these risks are serious, they are often exaggerated or misunderstood. Careful analysis and evidence-based approaches are necessary to evaluate and address potential threats.

Mitigation strategies:

• International cooperation and governance
• Scientific research and technological development
• Robust institutions and decision-making processes
• Public education and engagement

Reasons for optimism. Human ingenuity and problem-solving capabilities have overcome numerous challenges in the past. Continued progress in science, technology, and social institutions provides tools to address future risks.

Human progress is real and substantial, driven by Enlightenment ideals of reason, science, and humanism. While significant challenges remain, the overall trajectory of human well-being is positive. By understanding and appreciating this progress, we can work to sustain and accelerate it, addressing remaining problems and potential risks through rational, evidence-based approaches.

Last updated: August 10, 2024