Fight

1. Biden's Debate Disaster Triggered a Democratic Earthquake

Then a single camera shot focused on Biden for the first time that night, and the Democratic universe began to unravel.

Debate Performance. Joe Biden's performance in the June 2024 debate against Donald Trump was a watershed moment, revealing diminished faculties and altering the course of the election. The debate exposed Biden's struggles with coherent thought, slow gait, and a weak voice, confirming Trump's long-standing claims of Biden's physical and mental decline.

Democratic Panic. The debate triggered widespread alarm within the Democratic Party, with lawmakers, donors, and strategists expressing shock and dismay. Many Democrats immediately questioned Biden's fitness to continue as a candidate, fearing his presence on the ticket would doom down-ballot races.

Existential Threat. The debate transformed Biden from a candidate with a chance of winning to an existential threat to his party's chances of success in the upcoming election. The Democratic Party was thrown into chaos, with party leaders scrambling to assess the damage and consider contingency plans.

2. Trump's Calculated Restraint Capitalized on Biden's Struggles

How do I keep hitting him without coming off as an asshole? Trump thought.

Unexpected Advantage. Trump's initial reaction to Biden's poor performance was disbelief, followed by a period of adjustment as he realized the extent of his opponent's struggles. Trump's team had worried that Biden might exceed a low bar of expectations, but the reality far surpassed their most optimistic scenarios.

Strategic Shift. Trump, known for his aggressive and often unrestrained attacks, recognized the optics of bullying a sitting president and consciously dialed back his rhetoric. He became acutely aware of the need to avoid appearing overly aggressive or unsympathetic, a rare moment of self-awareness for the former president.

Narrative Control. Trump's restraint allowed the focus to remain squarely on Biden's perceived weaknesses, further solidifying the narrative of his decline. Trump's team understood that the most effective strategy was to let Biden's performance speak for itself, rather than risk overshadowing it with their own attacks.

3. Harris Faced an Uphill Battle to Salvage the Campaign

But one thought kept running through her head: Why did we put him out there?

Inherited Crisis. Vice President Kamala Harris was thrust into a challenging position, tasked with salvaging a campaign reeling from Biden's disastrous debate performance. Harris had to defend Biden while simultaneously positioning herself as a capable leader ready to take the reins.

Damage Control. Harris's initial attempts to downplay the debate as a "slow start" were met with skepticism, forcing her to shift her strategy and focus on contrasting herself with Trump. She had to balance loyalty to Biden with the need to demonstrate her own strength and vision for the future.

Limited Options. Harris's options were constrained by her position as vice president, making it difficult to distance herself from the Biden administration's policies and record. She had to navigate a narrow path between defending the administration and articulating her own distinct vision for the country.

4. Obama's Shadowy Influence and Pelosi's Blunt Assessment Fueled the Fire

“There are going to be discussions about whether he should continue,” David Axelrod, one of Obama’s top advisers on the campaign trail and in the White House, said on CNN immediately after the debate ended.

Elite Doubts. Former President Barack Obama, who had previously expressed reservations about Biden's political abilities, remained largely silent after the debate, allowing his proxies to publicly question Biden's fitness. Obama's silence fueled speculation about his lack of confidence in Biden and his potential support for an alternative candidate.

Pelosi's Question. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a powerful figure in the Democratic Party, added to the uncertainty by publicly questioning whether Biden's debate performance was an "episode or a condition." Pelosi's blunt assessment gave permission to other Democrats to openly discuss the possibility of replacing Biden on the ticket.

Undermining Biden. The actions of Obama and Pelosi, two of the most influential figures in the Democratic Party, significantly undermined Biden's credibility and emboldened those calling for his withdrawal. Their public doubts created a sense of crisis and fueled the search for a replacement candidate.

5. The Democratic Donor Class Divided, Creating a Financial Crisis

“Democrats just committed collective suicide,” one veteran Democratic Party strategist wrote in a message to a reporter less than fifteen minutes into the debate.

Donor Flight. Biden's debate performance triggered a widespread freakout among Democratic donors, with many canceling planned contributions and expressing reluctance to give more money to the campaign. The sudden cash crunch threatened to cripple Biden's ability to compete in the general election, forcing his team to scramble for new sources of funding.

O'Malley Dillon's Missteps. Campaign manager Jennifer O'Malley Dillon's attempts to reassure donors were largely unsuccessful, with many feeling that she was gaslighting them and treating them like traitors. Her dismissive attitude and refusal to acknowledge the severity of the situation further alienated key financial backers.

Contingency Plans. As the financial crisis deepened, some Democratic National Committee officials began to explore contingency plans for a Biden withdrawal, including potential rule changes and scenarios for replacing him on the ticket. The secret talks reflected the growing fear that Biden would not make it to Election Day as the party's nominee.

6. Biden's Defiance and Family's Influence Prolonged the Inevitable

“Keep fighting,” they told him.

Refusal to Yield. Despite the growing pressure and internal doubts, Biden initially resisted calls to withdraw from the race, fueled by his own ego, the support of his family, and the belief that he was the only one who could stop Trump. Biden's family, particularly his son Hunter, played a significant role in reinforcing his conviction to stay in the race, often blaming his aides for his struggles and urging him to fight back against his adversaries.

Family's Influence. The Biden family's influence over the president's decision-making created tension within the campaign, with aides feeling that they were being undermined and their advice ignored. The family's focus on protecting Biden's image and legacy often clashed with the campaign's need to address the concerns of voters and donors.

Limited Rebound. Biden's attempts to regain momentum, such as a rally in North Carolina, were largely unsuccessful, failing to quell the growing calls for his withdrawal. His insistence on staying in the race, despite the mounting evidence of his decline, only prolonged the crisis and further divided the Democratic Party.

7. Harris's Calculated Power Play Secured the Nomination

“You need to endorse me,” she replied, emphasizing the speed element. “This is important for your legacy—to show that you have absolute faith in your VP. The only way to do that is to make it clear. . . . If you’re going to make a statement, does it mention me?”

Harris's Opportunity. With Biden's withdrawal, Vice President Kamala Harris found herself in a unique position to seize the Democratic nomination. Harris had to navigate a delicate balance between loyalty to Biden and asserting her own leadership.

Strategic Maneuvering. Harris engaged in a calculated power play, leveraging her position as vice president to secure endorsements and consolidate support among key Democratic constituencies. She understood the importance of securing Biden's endorsement to legitimize her candidacy and prevent a divisive primary battle.

Swift Consolidation. Harris's swift and decisive actions, including securing endorsements from prominent Democrats and consolidating support among key constituencies, effectively cleared the field and positioned her as the inevitable nominee. Her ability to quickly seize control of the party demonstrated her political acumen and ambition.

8. Trump's Campaign Team Exploited Harris's Perceived Weaknesses

They were all planning to pass over Kamala. Those forces would lobby some of the same people he was calling.

Targeting Harris. With Harris as the nominee, Trump's campaign team shifted its focus to exploiting her perceived weaknesses, including her ties to Biden, her liberal policy positions, and her struggles to connect with certain segments of the electorate. Trump's team sought to define Harris as a radical leftist who would continue Biden's policies and further divide the country.

Exploiting Divisions. Trump's campaign aimed to exploit divisions within the Democratic Party, particularly on issues such as Israel and social issues, to undermine Harris's support and attract disaffected voters. They sought to portray Harris as out of touch with mainstream America and beholden to special interests.

Messaging Strategy. Trump's team developed a messaging strategy that emphasized Harris's perceived weaknesses and contrasted her with Trump's promises of economic prosperity, border security, and a return to traditional values. They sought to paint Harris as a continuation of the Biden administration's failures and a threat to American values.

9. The Election Became a Referendum on Trump's Past and Harris's Untested Future

For some, it was reminiscent of Biden’s performance at a meeting with governors the year before, in the East Room of the White House, when White House staff coached Harris to be ready to step in for Biden if his remarks went sideways.

Contrasting Visions. The 2024 election ultimately became a referendum on Trump's past and Harris's untested future, with voters weighing the risks and rewards of each candidate. Trump sought to capitalize on nostalgia for his presidency and fears of a radical-left agenda under Harris, while Harris attempted to present herself as a fresh face who could unite the country and address its challenges.

Key Issues. The election was largely shaped by voters' concerns about the economy, immigration, and national security, with Trump holding an advantage on many of these issues. Harris struggled to articulate a compelling vision for the country and to convince voters that she could deliver on her promises.

Limited Impact. Despite the high stakes and intense campaigning, the election ultimately came down to a relatively small number of voters in a handful of swing states, highlighting the deep polarization of American politics. The outcome reflected a complex interplay of factors, including candidate strengths and weaknesses, policy preferences, and cultural anxieties.

10. The Democratic Party Imploded, Handing Trump a Stunning Victory

“They were aggressively saying that we would wind up with the vice president and that would be a mistake.”

Internal Warfare. The Democratic Party's internal divisions, fueled by doubts about Biden's fitness and Harris's electability, significantly hampered their ability to mount a united front against Trump. The infighting and backstabbing undermined the party's message and created a sense of chaos and disarray.

Missed Opportunities. The Harris campaign's failure to effectively counter Trump's attacks and articulate a compelling vision for the future further contributed to their defeat. The campaign's reliance on traditional tactics and messaging proved insufficient to overcome the challenges posed by Trump's populist appeal and the deep divisions within the electorate.

Trump's Triumph. In the end, Trump's ability to connect with working-class voters, capitalize on economic anxieties, and exploit cultural divisions proved decisive. His victory marked a stunning comeback and a resounding rejection of the Democratic Party's establishment.

Last updated: May 1, 2025