Lucky

1. Biden's Victory: A Blend of Luck and Design

Luck, it has been said, is the residue of design.

Strategic planning meets fortuitous events. Joe Biden's 2020 presidential victory was not solely the result of meticulous planning and execution, but also a product of fortunate circumstances that he was able to capitalize on. These included missteps by his opponents, both in the Democratic primary and the general election, as well as broader societal shifts that favored his message.

Capitalizing on opportunities. Biden's campaign demonstrated an ability to adapt and seize opportunities as they arose. This included capitalizing on key endorsements, such as that of Jim Clyburn, and leveraging the national conversation around racial justice following the death of George Floyd.

The role of luck. While strategic planning and execution were essential, Biden's campaign also benefited from a degree of good fortune. This included the timing of key events, such as the coronavirus pandemic, and the missteps of his opponents, which created openings for him to gain ground.

2. Hillary's Lingering Shadow and the Democratic Void

She did not think any of these people could beat Donald Trump.

Hillary's continued influence. Even after her defeat in 2016, Hillary Clinton remained a significant figure in Democratic politics, with her allies and advisors still playing a role in shaping the party's direction. Her own ambitions and assessments of the 2020 field influenced the decisions of other potential candidates.

A leadership vacuum. The Democratic Party struggled to find a clear leader to challenge Trump in the years following his election. This created a sense of uncertainty and instability within the party, as various figures vied for prominence and influence.

The absence of a Trumpslayer. Despite the widespread desire to defeat Trump, no single Democratic candidate emerged as a clear and obvious choice to take him on. This led to a crowded primary field and a sense of unease among some Democrats about the party's prospects in 2020.

3. Biden's Calculated Charm and the Black Vote

He doesn’t like to kiss ass.

The art of persuasion. Despite his aversion to seeking favors, Biden understood the importance of building relationships and earning the support of key figures within the Democratic Party. He relied on his personal charm and decades of experience to bridge divides and win endorsements.

The Black vote as a cornerstone. Biden's strategy for winning the Democratic nomination heavily relied on securing the support of Black voters, particularly in South Carolina and other Southern states. He sought to position himself as the natural heir to Barack Obama and a champion of civil rights.

Navigating racial politics. Biden's record on race was complex and controversial, including both positive and negative aspects. He sought to navigate this history by emphasizing his commitment to civil rights and his close relationship with Obama, while also acknowledging past missteps.

4. Charlottesville's Impact: A Battle for the Nation's Soul

we are living through a battle for the soul of this nation.

Charlottesville as a turning point. The violent white supremacist demonstration in Charlottesville, Virginia, and Trump's response to it, served as a pivotal moment for Biden, galvanizing him to enter the 2020 presidential race. He framed his candidacy as a battle for the soul of the nation, arguing that Trump's actions had emboldened racism and threatened American values.

Moral indignation and political strategy. While Biden's moral outrage over Charlottesville was genuine, it also aligned perfectly with his campaign's broader message and strategy. He sought to mobilize voters around a vision of restoring decency, compassion, and competence to the White House.

A fulcrum for Biden's campaign. Biden used the issue of race as a fulcrum, appealing to both Black voters and moderate whites who were turned off by Trump's extremism. He presented himself as a unifying figure who could bridge divides and heal the nation's wounds.

5. Internal Campaign Conflicts: Generational Divides and Strategic Debates

You quickly learn in Bidenworld that you can change some things, but you can’t change anything quickly.

Clash of perspectives. Biden's campaign was marked by internal conflicts between older, more established advisors and younger, more progressive aides. These clashes often centered on issues of race, gender, and campaign strategy.

The pooh-bahs vs. the young guns. The older advisors, dubbed "pooh-bahs," tended to be more cautious and risk-averse, while the younger aides pushed for bolder action and a more modern approach to campaigning. This generational divide created tension and sometimes led to delays in decision-making.

Managing the candidate. Both the older and younger aides struggled to manage Biden's strong personality and independent streak. He often resisted advice and made decisions based on his own instincts, leading to frustration and missed opportunities.

6. The "Flores Thing": Navigating #MeToo and Biden's Touchy-Feely Style

Not once—never—did I believe I acted inappropriately.

#MeToo and the avuncular politician. Allegations of inappropriate touching by Lucy Flores threatened to derail Biden's campaign before it even began. The allegations forced him to confront his touchy-feely style and adapt to the changing norms of the #MeToo era.

Generational divide on #MeToo. The younger aides on Biden's campaign urged him to issue a swift and unequivocal apology, while the older advisors were more hesitant. This generational divide reflected broader tensions within the Democratic Party over issues of gender and power.

The limits of change. Despite the controversy, Biden resisted calls for a full apology, reflecting his belief that he had not acted improperly. This underscored the difficulty of changing deeply ingrained habits and beliefs, even in the face of public pressure.

7. Warren and Sanders: A Progressive Tug-of-War

Trump’s a sexist, a racist, and a liar.

Ideological competition. The 2020 Democratic primary featured a tug-of-war between Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders for the support of progressive voters. Both candidates offered ambitious policy proposals and a critique of corporate power, but they differed in their approaches and their visions for the future of the Democratic Party.

The risk of splitting the progressive vote. The presence of both Warren and Sanders in the race risked splitting the progressive vote, potentially paving the way for a more moderate candidate to win the nomination. This dynamic created tension between the two campaigns and led to strategic calculations about how to best position themselves for success.

Divergent paths. While both Warren and Sanders shared a commitment to progressive values, they differed in their backgrounds, their styles, and their relationships with the Democratic establishment. These differences shaped their campaigns and their appeals to voters.

8. The Sharpton Meeting: A Dance of Politics and Endorsements

Al, where you go is going to matter.

Seeking validation. As a white candidate seeking to win over Black voters, Biden understood the importance of securing endorsements from prominent Black leaders. His meeting with Reverend Al Sharpton was part of a broader effort to build relationships and demonstrate his commitment to civil rights.

The price of endorsements. Biden's willingness to court Sharpton and other influential figures highlighted the compromises and calculations that are often necessary in presidential politics. He had to balance the need for endorsements with the risk of alienating other voters.

Obama's shadow. The presence of Barack Obama loomed large over Biden's campaign, particularly in his efforts to win over Black voters. Biden sought to emphasize his close relationship with Obama and to position himself as the natural heir to his legacy.

9. The Pandemic's Impact: Shifting Strategies and Unforeseen Opportunities

We avoided that misstep, but not all of them.

Campaigns in the time of COVID. The coronavirus pandemic upended traditional campaign strategies and forced candidates to adapt to a new reality of virtual events, social distancing, and economic uncertainty. This created both challenges and opportunities for Biden and his rivals.

A referendum on Trump. The pandemic transformed the election into a referendum on Trump's leadership and his handling of the crisis. This shifted the focus away from policy debates and toward questions of competence, character, and empathy.

The power of absence. Biden's decision to largely stay off the campaign trail during the early months of the pandemic allowed him to avoid scrutiny and project an image of calm and stability. This strategy proved effective in contrasting him with Trump's erratic and often divisive behavior.

10. The Power of Endorsements: Clyburn's Influence and the Black Electorate

If I were advising him, I would advise him not to get in.

Clyburn's kingmaker status. Representative Jim Clyburn's endorsement of Biden in South Carolina proved to be a pivotal moment in the Democratic primary. His support helped to consolidate Black voters behind Biden and propel him to a decisive victory in the state.

The Black vote as a firewall. Biden's success in South Carolina demonstrated the importance of the Black vote as a firewall against progressive challengers. His ability to win over Black voters gave him a crucial advantage in the primary and helped to solidify his position as the front-runner.

The limits of influence. While Clyburn's endorsement was undoubtedly valuable, it was not a guarantee of success. Biden still had to earn the support of Black voters by articulating a message that resonated with their concerns and demonstrating his commitment to their interests.

11. Super Tuesday's Surge: Biden's Comeback and the Establishment's Relief

There was never a doubt whether he could take on the president.

A sudden shift in momentum. Biden's victory in South Carolina triggered a rapid shift in momentum, as other candidates dropped out of the race and endorsed him. This created a sense of inevitability around his candidacy and helped to consolidate support from establishment Democrats.

The establishment strikes back. The coalescing of support behind Biden reflected a broader effort by the Democratic establishment to stop Bernie Sanders from winning the nomination. Moderate Democrats feared that Sanders's socialist policies would be too risky in a general election against Trump.

A new sense of confidence. Biden's Super Tuesday surge gave his campaign a much-needed boost of confidence and resources. It also allowed him to reframe the race as a head-to-head contest between himself and Trump, rather than a multi-candidate free-for-all.

12. The General Election: A Divided Nation and a Narrow Victory

We are living through a battle for the soul of this nation.

A deeply polarized electorate. The 2020 general election took place against the backdrop of a deeply divided nation, with voters sharply divided along partisan, racial, and cultural lines. This polarization made it difficult for either candidate to win over undecided voters or to bridge divides.

A narrow victory. Despite winning the popular vote by a significant margin, Biden's victory in the electoral college was relatively narrow. This underscored the enduring power of the electoral college and the importance of winning key swing states.

The challenges of governing. As he prepared to take office, Biden faced the daunting task of governing a deeply divided nation. He would need to find ways to bridge divides, build consensus, and address the many challenges facing the country, from the coronavirus pandemic to economic inequality to systemic racial injustice.

Last updated: April 12, 2025