Good Reasonable People

1. Political Divisions Stem from Circumstances, Not Inherent Traits

As a social psychologist, I study the ways that people respond to their social circumstances.

Circumstances shape beliefs. Our political tribes are primarily the result of our circumstances, not inherent traits. Political divisions arise from how human minds work when faced with different situations. These circumstances, partly chosen and partly beyond our control, set us on very different paths.

No inherent liberal or conservative mind. There is no inherent "liberal mind" or "conservative mind." Instead, there are human minds trying to make sense of the circumstances in which they find themselves. Personality traits, thinking styles, and values can only explain a small fraction of the differences between partisans.

Demographics matter. Factors like race, education, and religion are strong predictors of partisanship. These demographic factors create different circumstances that shape political beliefs. For example, about 90% of Black Americans and two-thirds of Hispanic Americans support Democrats, while about 60% of Whites support Republicans.

2. The Psychological Immune System Defends Beliefs, Not Truth

Our cognitive systems are doing just what they are set up to do, which is not always to seek truth.

Motivated reasoning. People reason flexibly to defend their identities and commitments. The psychological immune system protects our well-being by finding ways to make everything add up to the conviction that we are good and reasonable people. This often leads to logical inconsistencies and intellectual dishonesty.

Bipartisan bias. Flexible reasoning is a bipartisan affair. Both liberals and conservatives engage in mental gymnastics to justify their preferred conclusions. For example, Democrats may downplay accusations against their leaders, while Republicans may rationalize actions that seem to contradict their stated values.

Protecting the "true self." Being a good person is at the heart of people's sense of identity. The psychological immune system protects this conviction by finding ways to rationalize our actions and beliefs, even when they are at odds with reason and evidence. This is why people will often misremember their prior opinions to align with their current beliefs.

3. Ideology Is Often a Post-Hoc Rationalization, Not a Guiding Principle

The problem is that isms take interesting things that human beings do and turn them into abstractions with fuzzy boundaries.

Innocent of ideology. Most people have no coherent political ideology. Instead, they have group loyalties and the desire for their groups to dominate other groups. Political issues are tools that people pick up and lay down, as needed, to justify their group status.

The illusion of ideology. People are good at improvising arguments that sound reasonable in the moment, based on whatever cues are available. This creates an illusion of ideology, where people appear to have well-thought-out opinions but are actually just winging it.

The cognitive response principle. People don't change their beliefs based on new information. Instead, they change their beliefs based on their own thoughts in response to the new information. This means that persuasion is self-persuasion, and people are more likely to believe arguments that they generate themselves.

4. History, Especially Slavery, Casts a Long Shadow on Present-Day Politics

The past is never dead. It’s not even past.

Ancient coastline. The ancient coastline that once covered much of the southern United States created a stark boundary that still influences our lives today. The chalky limestone soil left behind by this coastline made the region ideal for growing cotton.

Cotton and slavery. The profitability of cotton led to the expansion of slavery in the South. This created a system of racial inequality that continues to shape our politics today. The Civil War and Reconstruction era were attempts to address this inequality, but they ultimately failed to fully dismantle the racial hierarchy.

Lincoln's slave map. Lincoln used a map showing the distribution of the slave population to strategize for the Civil War. This map highlights the link between slavery and secession. Counties with more slavery in 1860 have more segregation and racial disparities today.

5. Education and Class Create Divergent Political Perspectives

The paradox of education is precisely this—that as one begins to become conscious one begins to examine the society in which he is being educated.

Socioeconomic status. Social class is often measured by socioeconomic status (SES), which combines income and education. However, income and education can pull in opposite directions politically. Higher income tends to favor Republicans, while higher education tends to favor Democrats.

The diploma divide. The education gap is a significant factor in political polarization. College graduates are more likely to be liberal, while those without a college degree are more likely to be conservative. This divide is driven by White Americans, as non-White Americans tend to favor Democrats regardless of their education level.

The role of education. Higher education exposes people to diverse perspectives and encourages critical thinking. This can lead to greater awareness of systemic inequalities and a more liberal worldview. However, it can also create a divide between the educated elite and those who feel left behind.

6. Urban and Rural Environments Foster Distinct Worldviews

And if the world went to hell in a handbasket—as it seemed to be doing—you could say good-bye to everyone and retreat to your land, hunkering down and living off it.

Population density. Population density is a key factor separating urban and rural areas. Cities tend to be more liberal, while rural areas tend to be more conservative. This is due to a combination of factors, including demographics, economic opportunities, and cultural values.

The social multiplier. Cities are engines of innovation because of the "social multiplier." The concentration of people and resources in cities creates a fertile ground for new ideas and businesses. This attracts a more skilled and educated workforce, further reinforcing the urban-rural divide.

Culture of honor. Rural areas often have a "culture of honor," where self-reliance and individualism are highly valued. This can lead to a more conservative worldview and a distrust of government intervention. The rugged individualism of rural areas does not encourage just any kind of violence, but specifically violence aimed at defending yourself, your family, and your reputation—that is, your honor.

7. Religion Amplifies Existing Political Divides

If God is for us, who can be against us?

Religious affiliation. Religious affiliation is increasingly aligned with political identity. White evangelicals overwhelmingly support Republicans, while Black Protestants and the religiously unaffiliated tend to vote Democratic.

The role of adolescence. Adolescence is a critical period for forming both religious and political identities. Young people often distance themselves from their parents' religion during this time, and their political views crystallize.

Strategic positioning. Religious denominations have strategically positioned themselves to attract particular audiences and organize political alliances. The modern-day "religious right" was forged as a response to desegregation efforts in the 1970s.

8. Misinformation Thrives on Identity, Not Just Ignorance

The truth is always an insult or a joke, lies are generally tastier. We love them. The nature of lies is to please. Truth has no concern for anyone’s comfort.

No epidemic. Despite the rise of social media, belief in conspiracy theories is generally no higher today than it was in the 1970s. People have always believed a lot of weird things.

The villain is key. Partisans are more likely to believe conspiracy theories that cast their political opponents as villains. This suggests that misinformation is driven by identity, not just ignorance.

Rationalization markets. People demand rationalizations that allow them to believe what they want while seeming reasonable. Politicians and pundits provide these rationalizations in return for attention, status, power, and profit.

9. Understanding Motivations Can Bridge Political Divides

They are just what we would be in their situation.

Hidden common ground. We often exaggerate the differences between our own side and the other side. In reality, we may agree on more than we think.

Individuals, not groups. We feel more empathy for individuals than for groups. Thinking of opponents as individuals can help us see them as ordinary people trying to make sense of the world.

Go deeper than facts. Facts and logic are often ineffective in changing people's minds. Sharing personal experiences and listening to others' stories can be more powerful ways to connect.

Last updated: April 11, 2025