Hit Makers

1. Familiarity breeds popularity, but surprises keep it interesting

People are simultaneously neophilic—curious to discover new things—and deeply neophobic—afraid of anything that's too new.

Familiar with a twist. The most successful cultural products strike a balance between the familiar and the novel. This concept, known as MAYA (Most Advanced Yet Acceptable), was pioneered by industrial designer Raymond Loewy. It explains why sequels and adaptations are so popular in Hollywood, and why hit songs often use familiar chord progressions with new instrumentation.

The exposure effect. Repeated exposure to something tends to increase our liking for it, up to a point. This explains why radio play is crucial for creating hit songs, and why advertising works. However, too much repetition can lead to boredom or annoyance. The key is to provide enough familiarity to create comfort, but enough novelty to maintain interest.

Aesthetic aha moments. The most satisfying cultural experiences often involve an initial period of confusion or challenge, followed by a moment of understanding or recognition. This "aesthetic aha" explains the appeal of puzzles, complex narratives, and abstract art. It's not just about making things easy to understand, but about creating the right level of cognitive challenge.

2. Repetition is the foundation of music and persuasive speech

Repetition is a clue. It tells the brain to listen for music.

The power of repetition. In music, repetition is essential for creating hooks, choruses, and memorable melodies. The "speech-to-song illusion" demonstrates how even spoken words can transform into perceived music through repetition. This phenomenon explains why earworms are so common and why certain phrases or slogans become deeply ingrained in our minds.

Rhetorical devices. In persuasive speech and writing, repetition-based rhetorical devices like anaphora, epistrophe, and antimetabole are powerful tools for creating memorable and impactful messages. Political speeches, advertising slogans, and literary works often employ these techniques to enhance their effectiveness.

The dark side of repetition. While repetition can make ideas more persuasive, it can also be used to propagate falsehoods or manipulate emotions. The "illusory truth effect" shows that repeated exposure to a statement, even if initially identified as false, can increase the likelihood of it being perceived as true over time. This highlights the importance of critical thinking and diverse information sources.

3. Networks and social influence drive cultural trends

To make popular content, it's not enough to know your friends or your followers. It's about knowing the friends of your friends and the followers of your followers.

The power of networks. Cultural trends often spread through social networks, with people influencing and being influenced by their connections. The success of a product or idea depends not just on its inherent quality, but on how well it can propagate through these networks. This explains why some inferior products can become popular while superior ones fail.

Homophily and social proof. People tend to associate with others who are similar to them (homophily) and are heavily influenced by the choices of those around them (social proof). This can create echo chambers and reinforce existing preferences, but it also provides a mechanism for rapid spread of new ideas within specific communities.

Homophily examples:

• Friend groups with similar interests
• Residential segregation by race or class
• Online communities focused on specific topics

Social proof in action:

• Best-seller lists influencing book sales
• Restaurant popularity based on visible crowds
• Social media likes and shares driving content virality

The role of influencers. While the idea of a small number of highly influential individuals driving trends (the "influencer model") has been popular, research suggests that the reality is more complex. The "critical mass" model proposes that trends often require a certain threshold of adoption within a network before they can take off, regardless of who the early adopters are.

4. Hits often emerge from niche audiences before going mainstream

Fifty Shades of Grey was a dark hit, a product whose large audience was invisible to the most prominent measures of popularity.

The power of niche communities. Many cultural phenomena that seem to come out of nowhere actually originate in smaller, dedicated communities. Fan fiction, online forums, and subcultures often serve as incubators for ideas that later break into the mainstream. This "dark hit" phenomenon explains why traditional gatekeepers sometimes miss emerging trends.

The long tail and the superstar effect. Digital distribution has enabled a "long tail" of niche products to find audiences, but it has also intensified the "superstar effect" where a small number of hits capture a disproportionate share of attention and revenue. This paradox means that while it's easier than ever to create and distribute content, breaking through to mainstream success is still extremely challenging.

Long tail examples:

• Indie music on streaming platforms
• Self-published e-books
• YouTube channels catering to specific interests

Superstar effect in action:

• Blockbuster movies dominating box office revenue
• A handful of authors selling millions of books
• Top social media influencers with massive followings

From niche to mainstream. The journey from niche hit to mainstream success often involves:

1. Building a dedicated core audience
2. Leveraging online platforms for distribution
3. Attracting attention from traditional media
4. Crossing over to broader demographics
5. Achieving critical mass for widespread adoption

5. Technology changes faster than human psychology

Technology changes faster than people do.

Evolutionary mismatch. Our brains evolved in an environment very different from today's technological landscape. This leads to mismatches between our instincts and our current reality. For example, our desire for social connection makes us vulnerable to digital addiction, and our tendency to seek out confirming information can lead to echo chambers online.

Adaptation lag. While technology can change rapidly, human habits, preferences, and social norms take much longer to adapt. This explains why many people struggle with information overload, why privacy concerns lag behind data collection practices, and why traditional industries often resist technological disruption.

Eternal human needs. Despite technological changes, core human needs and desires remain relatively constant. Successful innovations often tap into these timeless needs in new ways:

• Connection (social media)
• Entertainment (streaming services)
• Status (luxury goods, social media likes)
• Knowledge (search engines, online courses)
• Convenience (on-demand services)

6. The economics of attention shape media and entertainment

Content might be king, but distribution is the kingdom.

The attention economy. As information becomes abundant, attention becomes the scarce resource. This shift has profound implications for media and entertainment businesses. Success is increasingly about capturing and retaining audience attention, rather than just producing quality content.

Business models and content. The way media companies make money significantly influences the type of content they produce. For example:

• Advertising-supported models (e.g., broadcast TV, many websites) prioritize broad appeal and frequent engagement
• Subscription models (e.g., Netflix, premium cable) can focus on niche quality content to attract and retain subscribers
• Freemium models (e.g., mobile games) balance free content with incentives to pay for premium features

The role of algorithms. Recommendation algorithms and personalized content feeds have become crucial in the attention economy. They aim to maximize engagement by showing users content they're likely to enjoy, but this can lead to filter bubbles and a narrowing of perspectives.

7. Great art balances innovation with accessibility

To sell something familiar, make it surprising. To sell something surprising, make it familiar.

The innovation sweet spot. The most successful cultural products often combine familiar elements with novel twists. This allows audiences to feel grounded while still experiencing something fresh. Examples include genre-blending in music, reimagined fairy tales in film, and new takes on classic gameplay mechanics in video games.

Balancing act for creators. Artists and innovators must navigate the tension between pushing boundaries and maintaining accessibility. Too much innovation can alienate audiences, while too little risks being perceived as derivative. This balance is often achieved through:

• Gradual evolution of style or format
• Combining elements from different genres or traditions
• Using familiar frameworks to introduce new ideas
• Providing enough context for audiences to grasp new concepts

The role of gatekeepers. Traditional gatekeepers (publishers, record labels, movie studios) have often played a role in moderating this balance. As these gatekeepers lose power in the digital age, creators have more freedom but also more responsibility to find their own sweet spot between innovation and accessibility.

8. Stories are powerful tools for communication and manipulation

A great story that serves the wrong purpose is a dangerous thing.

The universal appeal of stories. Humans are naturally drawn to narratives. Stories help us make sense of the world, remember information, and connect emotionally with ideas. This makes storytelling a powerful tool for communication in fields ranging from marketing to politics to education.

The hero's journey. Many successful stories follow similar patterns, such as the "hero's journey" identified by Joseph Campbell. These universal story structures tap into deep psychological needs and cultural archetypes, making them effective across cultures and time periods.

Elements of the hero's journey:

• Ordinary world
• Call to adventure
• Refusal of the call
• Meeting the mentor
• Crossing the threshold
• Tests, allies, enemies
• Approach to the innermost cave
• Ordeal
• Reward
• The road back
• Resurrection
• Return with elixir

The ethics of storytelling. While stories can be used to inspire and educate, they can also be used to manipulate and mislead. The power of narrative to bypass critical thinking makes it a potent tool for propaganda and misinformation. This underscores the importance of media literacy and critical analysis of the stories we consume.

9. Cultural markets are chaotic but not entirely unpredictable

Culture doesn't stop surprising us. In fact, culture doesn't stop at all.

The unpredictability of hits. Cultural markets are inherently chaotic, with small differences in initial conditions or random events potentially leading to vastly different outcomes. This makes it extremely difficult to predict which products will become hits based solely on their inherent qualities.

Patterns in the chaos. Despite this unpredictability, there are some identifiable patterns in cultural markets:

• The "rich get richer" effect, where initial success leads to more visibility and further success
• The importance of timing and context in determining a product's reception
• The role of social influence and network effects in driving adoption

Strategies for navigating chaos. Given the inherent uncertainty, successful strategies in cultural markets often involve:

1. Diversification (producing many products to increase chances of a hit)
2. Rapid iteration and adaptation based on audience feedback
3. Leveraging existing fan bases and networks
4. Creating products with potential for long-term engagement or repeat consumption
5. Building flexibility into business models to capitalize on unexpected successes

10. The future of hits lies in global empires and individual creators

Disney had developed the perfect movie-merchandising symbiosis.

The rise of media empires. Companies like Disney have created vast interconnected ecosystems of content and merchandise. This "total merchandising" approach allows them to maximize the value of intellectual property across multiple platforms and products. The future may see even more consolidation and cross-media integration.

Key components of media empires:

• Franchises with broad, multi-generational appeal
• Integration of content across films, TV, streaming, theme parks, and merchandise
• Global reach to maximize audience and revenue potential
• Data-driven decision making to optimize content and marketing

The creator economy. Simultaneously, digital platforms have empowered individual creators to reach global audiences without traditional gatekeepers. This has led to the rise of social media influencers, YouTube stars, and indie game developers who can build substantial businesses around their personal brands.

Advantages for individual creators:

• Direct connection with audience
• Flexibility to experiment and pivot quickly
• Lower overhead and production costs
• Ability to monetize niche interests

The tension between scale and authenticity. As the media landscape evolves, there's an ongoing tension between the economies of scale offered by large empires and the authenticity and innovation often associated with individual creators. Successful players in the future may need to find ways to balance these competing forces, perhaps through partnerships, acquisitions, or new hybrid models.

Last updated: September 11, 2024