How Everything Can Collapse

1. Our industrial civilization is on an unsustainable trajectory

To maintain itself and avoid financial disorder and social unrest, our industrial civilization is forced to accelerate, to become more complex and to consume ever more energy.

Exponential growth paradigm. Our civilization is built on a foundation of exponential growth in resource consumption, energy use, and complexity. This growth has been fueled by abundant fossil fuels, allowing for rapid technological advancement and population expansion. However, this trajectory is fundamentally unsustainable on a finite planet.

Diminishing returns. As we approach ecological and resource limits, we are experiencing diminishing returns on our investments in growth and complexity. Maintaining our current standard of living requires ever-increasing inputs of energy and resources, while the benefits of further growth are declining. This dynamic creates a self-reinforcing cycle of acceleration that becomes increasingly difficult to maintain.

2. Multiple crises are converging, threatening societal collapse

We have already entered a silent spring.

Interconnected challenges. Our civilization faces a perfect storm of converging crises:

• Climate change and extreme weather events
• Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
• Resource depletion, especially fossil fuels
• Economic instability and growing inequality
• Social and political unrest

Systemic risks. These crises are not isolated but deeply interconnected, with the potential to trigger cascading failures across multiple systems. The complexity of our global civilization makes it vulnerable to disruptions that can rapidly propagate and amplify, potentially leading to widespread societal collapse.

3. Collapse is not a single event, but a process with stages

A collapse is 'the process at the end of which basic needs (water, food, housing, clothing, energy, etc.) can no longer be provided [at a reasonable cost] to a majority of the population by services under legal supervision'.

Stages of collapse. Collapse unfolds as a series of cascading failures across different domains:

1. Financial collapse
2. Commercial collapse
3. Political collapse
4. Social collapse
5. Cultural collapse

Non-linear progression. The process of collapse is not necessarily linear or uniform. Different regions and sectors of society may experience collapse at different rates and to varying degrees. Some areas may remain relatively stable while others rapidly deteriorate.

4. Current economic and energy systems are reaching limits

At the top of the peak, there is a wall!

Peak resources. We are approaching or have already passed peak production for many critical resources, including conventional oil. As high-quality, easily accessible resources are depleted, we are forced to exploit increasingly marginal sources at higher costs and with diminishing returns.

Energy-economy nexus. Our economic system is fundamentally dependent on cheap, abundant energy. As the energy return on investment (EROI) for fossil fuels declines, it becomes increasingly difficult to maintain economic growth and complex societal structures. This creates a feedback loop where energy scarcity constrains economic activity, which in turn limits our ability to develop alternative energy sources.

5. Climate change and biodiversity loss pose existential threats

We now know that global heating causes and will cause serious water-supply problems and declines in agricultural yield (the two are not always linked).

Planetary boundaries. We have already crossed several critical planetary boundaries, including those related to climate change and biodiversity loss. These changes are altering the fundamental conditions that have allowed human civilization to flourish.

Cascading effects. Climate change and biodiversity loss create feedback loops that can accelerate and amplify their impacts:

• Rising temperatures lead to melting permafrost, releasing more greenhouse gases
• Loss of keystone species disrupts entire ecosystems
• Changing climate patterns alter agricultural productivity and water availability
• Extreme weather events become more frequent and severe

6. Complex, interconnected systems are increasingly vulnerable

A networked society behaves like a multicellular organism.

Global interdependence. Our highly interconnected global systems create efficiencies but also increase vulnerability to disruptions. Supply chains, financial markets, and information networks span the globe, creating complex webs of dependencies.

Systemic risks. The interconnectedness of our systems means that local disruptions can rapidly propagate and amplify, potentially leading to widespread failures:

• Financial contagion spreading across markets
• Supply chain disruptions causing shortages of critical goods
• Cascading infrastructure failures (e.g., power grids, telecommunications)

7. Human psychology often prevents recognition of looming crises

We consider the catastrophe to be impossible at the very same time as the data at our disposal make it likely and even certain or almost certain.

Cognitive biases. Several psychological factors prevent us from fully grasping the severity of our situation:

• Normalcy bias: Assuming things will always function the way they have
• Optimism bias: Overestimating positive outcomes and underestimating risks
• Cognitive dissonance: Rejecting information that conflicts with existing beliefs

Denial and inaction. These psychological barriers often lead to denial, delay, and inadequate responses to looming crises. Even when presented with compelling evidence, many people struggle to internalize the reality of potential collapse scenarios.

8. Transition and resilience-building are essential responses

Probably the greatest agreement among scholars, though, is that the failing civilizations suffered from growing hubris and overconfidence: the belief that their capabilities after many earlier tests would always rise to the occasion and that growing signs of weakness could be ignored as pessimistic.

Local resilience. Building resilience at the local level is crucial for navigating the challenges of collapse:

• Developing local food systems and sustainable agriculture
• Creating community-based renewable energy projects
• Strengthening social networks and mutual aid systems
• Reviving traditional skills and knowledge

Transition initiatives. Grassroots movements like the Transition Network are working to create more resilient, low-carbon communities capable of withstanding shocks and adapting to changing conditions.

9. Collapse may be inevitable, but its impacts can be mitigated

Unhappiness is our destiny, but it is a destiny only because human beings do not recognize in it the consequences of their own actions. Above all, it is a destiny we can choose to ward off.

Preparing for descent. While complete collapse may be inevitable, its impacts can be mitigated through thoughtful preparation and adaptation:

• Developing alternative economic models less dependent on growth
• Investing in regenerative practices that restore ecosystems
• Creating more localized, resilient systems for meeting basic needs
• Preserving and sharing critical knowledge and skills

Psychological adaptation. Confronting the reality of collapse requires a process of grieving and psychological adaptation. This can ultimately lead to a renewed sense of purpose and connection as we work to create more sustainable and resilient ways of living.

Last updated: October 1, 2024