How Minds Change

1. Minds change through assimilation and accommodation, not just facts

"Once it seems like you've received confirmation that you are correct, you don't go looking for disconfirmation just to make sure."

Assimilation and accommodation. These two processes, identified by psychologist Jean Piaget, explain how minds change. Assimilation involves integrating new information into existing mental structures, while accommodation requires modifying those structures to fit new information.

• Assimilation: Fitting new information into existing beliefs
• Accommodation: Changing beliefs to fit new information

When faced with new information, people first try to assimilate it. Only when assimilation fails do they consider accommodation. This explains why simply presenting facts often fails to change minds – people try to fit those facts into their existing worldview rather than changing their worldview to fit the facts.

2. Deep canvassing: A revolutionary approach to changing minds

"No matter [what] they say on the scale, you respectfully listen. Why do you feel that way? What led to it? Be a genuine, curious listener, that's what makes them feel open to considering new viewpoints."

Non-judgmental listening. Deep canvassing, developed by the Leadership LAB, is a highly effective technique for changing minds on contentious issues. It involves:

1. Establishing rapport and asking for consent to explore reasoning
2. Asking for a numerical measure of confidence in a claim
3. Listening to personal experiences related to the issue
4. Sharing relevant personal stories
5. Encouraging reflection on one's own thinking

Research shows deep canvassing can produce significant attitude changes in a single conversation, lasting for months or even years. Its success lies in creating a safe space for people to examine their own beliefs without feeling judged or threatened.

3. The SURFPAD model explains why people disagree on seemingly obvious issues

"When we sense a threat to our place within a trusted group—if we feel like we might be considered untrustworthy for changing our minds—we avoid it."

Substantial Uncertainty and Ramified Priors. The SURFPAD model (Substantial Uncertainty + Ramified Priors or Assumptions = Disagreement) explains why people can look at the same information and reach vastly different conclusions.

• Substantial Uncertainty: Ambiguous or complex situations
• Ramified Priors: Different background experiences and assumptions

When faced with uncertainty, our brains unconsciously use prior experiences to fill in the gaps. This process happens without our awareness, leading us to feel certain about our interpretations even when they differ dramatically from others'. Understanding SURFPAD can help us approach disagreements with more empathy and openness.

4. Tribal psychology hinders our ability to change our minds

"We are willing to sacrifice ourselves and others for the group, if it comes to that."

Group identity over accuracy. Humans are ultra-social animals, evolved to prioritize group belonging over individual correctness. This tribal psychology leads to:

• In-group favoritism and out-group bias
• Resistance to information that threatens group identity
• Motivated reasoning to defend group beliefs

Our need for social acceptance often outweighs our desire for accuracy, making it difficult to change our minds on issues tied to group identity. Recognizing this tendency can help us overcome it and approach information more objectively.

5. Arguing evolved as a tool for group decision-making, not individual reasoning

"If people couldn't change their minds there would be no point in bringing arguments forward."

Collaborative reasoning. Contrary to popular belief, human reasoning didn't evolve for individual truth-seeking, but for group decision-making. This explains why:

• We're better at finding flaws in others' arguments than our own
• Group reasoning often outperforms individual reasoning
• We tend to produce biased arguments in favor of our position

Understanding the social nature of reasoning can help us approach arguments more productively, focusing on collaborative problem-solving rather than individual "winning."

6. Effective persuasion requires understanding motivation and ability to process

"Elaboration is contextualizing the message after it gets inside your head, something more akin to how people arrive at different interpretations of inkblots in a Rorschach test."

The Elaboration Likelihood Model. Developed by Richard Petty and John Cacioppo, this model explains how people process persuasive messages:

1. Central Route: High elaboration, careful consideration of arguments
2. Peripheral Route: Low elaboration, focus on superficial cues

Factors affecting route:

• Motivation: Personal relevance, need for cognition
• Ability: Time, cognitive resources, knowledge

To persuade effectively, tailor your approach based on the audience's motivation and ability to process the message. High-elaboration persuasion leads to more enduring attitude change.

7. Street epistemology: A technique for encouraging critical thinking

"Basically, all culture is 12 Angry Men at scale."

Guided metacognition. Street epistemology, developed by Anthony Magnabosco, is a conversational technique aimed at encouraging people to examine the reliability of their methods for arriving at beliefs. Key steps include:

1. Establishing rapport and asking for consent
2. Identifying a claim and confidence level
3. Exploring reasons for that confidence
4. Examining the methods used to evaluate those reasons
5. Encouraging reflection on the reliability of those methods

By focusing on epistemology rather than specific beliefs, this approach can lead to more open-minded consideration of alternative viewpoints.

8. Social change occurs through cascades when networks become vulnerable

"We don't want to learn it because we just don't like the lesson."

Network vulnerability. Large-scale social change often appears sudden but results from long-building network dynamics:

• Individual thresholds for adopting new ideas
• Connections between groups with different thresholds
• Percolating vulnerable clusters that can trigger cascades

When a network becomes vulnerable, a small change can trigger a massive shift in public opinion. This explains why some ideas persist for years before suddenly becoming widely accepted.

9. Changing minds is crucial for societal progress and adapting to new environments

"We've left a trail of dozens of discarded models of reality, shared beliefs, moral high grounds, and superseded scientific theories that were each once the final word."

Adaptive advantage. The ability to change our minds individually and collectively has been crucial to human survival and progress. It allows us to:

• Adapt to changing environments faster than genetic evolution
• Accumulate and improve knowledge over generations
• Overcome harmful or outdated beliefs and practices

Recognizing the importance of mind-changing can motivate us to approach our own beliefs more critically and engage with others more open-mindedly. By cultivating this skill, we can contribute to societal progress and better navigate an increasingly complex world.

Last updated: January 24, 2025