Now or Never

1. Humanity is a geological force, profoundly altering Earth's systems.

But suddenly we have become a geological force, altering the physical, chemical, and biological makeup of the planet as no other species has ever done.

Infant species, massive impact. Human beings are a very young species in Earth's history, yet our technological prowess and global economy have given us an unprecedented ecological footprint. We are now changing the planet's fundamental systems, acting as a geological force. This impact is amplified by our large population and consumption patterns.

Gaia's organs disrupted. Earth functions as a self-regulating system (Gaia), with life concentrated in a thin rind composed of the crust, air, and water. Humanity is disrupting the balance between these organs, primarily by moving ancient carbon from the crust (fossil fuels) into the atmosphere and oceans. This imbalance is at the heart of the climate crisis.

Earth made us. While we often see ourselves as separate from or dominant over nature, a Gaian perspective suggests we evolved to serve Earth's processes. Our intelligence, a product of evolution, could potentially become Gaia's self-awareness, regulating planetary systems for the good of life as a whole. Acknowledging this connection requires a shift in how we interact with the planet.

2. The climate crisis is accelerating, exceeding worst-case predictions.

Astonishingly, in every instance the real-world changes were at the upper limit, or worse than even the worst-case scenario presented by the IPCC.

Warming is undeniable. The warming trend is real, accelerating, and overwhelmingly caused by human pollution, as confirmed by the IPCC and subsequent research. Studies show a clear link between human-caused warming and widespread changes in Earth's physical and biological systems. This includes shifts in species behavior, water flow, and plant cycles.

Arctic melting rapidly. The Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average, leading to unprecedented melting of sea ice and the Greenland ice cap. This melting contributes to sea-level rise and disrupts global climate patterns. Current scientific models have failed to accurately predict the speed of these changes, indicating we are "flying blind."

Ocean acidification threat. Increased atmospheric CO2 is absorbed by the oceans, forming carbolic acid and causing acidification. This threatens marine life, particularly organisms that build shells or skeletons, and is already advanced in the North Pacific. Ocean acidification is a more urgent threat than previously thought and could ultimately impact marine ecosystems globally.

3. We are nearing a point of no return for irreversible climate change.

Humanity is now between a tipping point and a point of no return, and only the most strenuous efforts on our part are capable of returning its to safe ground.

Tipping points vs. no return. A climatic tipping point is the greenhouse gas concentration sufficient to cause catastrophic change. The point of no return is when that concentration has been in place long enough for irreversible processes to begin. We are currently suspended between these two points.

Past warming sensitivity. Analysis of ice core data shows Earth's climate is about twice as sensitive to CO2 pollution over the long term as previously estimated. There is already enough greenhouse gas in the atmosphere to cause significant warming (3.5 degrees Fahrenheit), bringing conditions not seen in millions of years. This level of warming would surely yield "dangerous" climate impacts.

Delayed warming factors. The full warming effect of current emissions is delayed by factors like ocean heat absorption and the rate of ice melt. However, ice sheets can collapse spectacularly, accelerating sea-level rise faster than models predict. This suggests the delay from ice melt may be less significant than assumed, pushing us closer to the point of no return.

4. The scale of required emissions reduction is vastly underestimated.

Clearly, the task of combating the climate crisis is far larger than conventional wisdom assumes.

IPCC projections flawed. Analysis shows that IPCC projections underestimate the scale of necessary emissions reductions by two-thirds because they assume "built-in" reductions from technological efficiency improvements. Real-world data shows global energy and carbon intensity have actually risen. The real task is four times larger than IPCC projections indicate.

Transformation needed. To meet the challenge, humanity needs to implement clean energy technologies approximately ten times faster than projected by the most ambitious IPCC scenarios. This requires a fundamental transformation of global energy systems, especially considering the rapid growth in developing economies like China and India. The real surge in CO2 emissions may just be beginning.

Will and leadership deficit. The primary barrier is not a lack of scenario planning but a deficit in will and leadership. Despite the clear need for urgency, political negotiations grind on slowly. The world needs to recognize the crisis as a war-like effort or a space-race challenge to mobilize the necessary resources and speed.

5. Addressing coal emissions requires massive, urgent investment and global cooperation.

Thus far, investments by coal companies in clean technologies have been insufficient to fund the completion of even a single large demonstration plant.

Coal conundrum. Coal is cheap and abundant, making it a primary energy source globally, especially in rapidly developing economies. However, burning coal is a major source of CO2 emissions. China and India are rapidly building new coal plants, which will not be easily shut down.

Clean coal challenges. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology is needed to make coal viable in a carbon-constrained world, but it is expensive and still largely unproven at scale. Retrofitting existing plants is even more challenging than building new ones. The coal industry has been slow to invest significantly in this technology.

Financing and cooperation. Financing the massive investment needed for CCS, particularly in developing countries, is a major hurdle. Mechanisms like "clean development" schemes could help transfer funds, but political barriers exist. Developed nations, having benefited most from fossil fuels, bear a responsibility to help shoulder the cost of reducing pollution globally.

6. Natural systems like forests and soils offer powerful carbon capture solutions.

The strongest possibility of a large-scale drawdown of atmospheric carbon lies instead in changes to global agriculture and forestry.

Plants as carbon sinks. Plants are highly effective at capturing atmospheric carbon through photosynthesis. While most carbon returns to the atmosphere when plants die and rot, permanently storing even a small portion could significantly reduce atmospheric CO2. This offers a low-tech, large-scale solution.

Tropical forests vital. Tropical forests are prodigious carbon sinks due to year-round growth and play a critical role in climate stability. Their destruction contributes significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions (18% annually). Saving and restoring these forests is a vital opportunity to stabilize the climate and protect biodiversity.

Market-based solutions. Traditional government channels often fail to protect forests effectively. A market-based approach linking individuals willing to pay for climate security with tropical farmers willing to preserve or reforest land could be effective. Internet platforms could facilitate direct transactions, providing income to local communities and ensuring investment security through tracking and verification.

7. Sustainable agriculture and livestock management can enhance climate and food security.

I will argue that it's possible to increase the yield of agricultural and pastoral land while at the same time sequestering carbon.

Pyrolysis benefits. Pyrolysis, heating biomass in the absence of oxygen to create charcoal (biochar), offers a powerful solution. Biochar permanently sequesters carbon in the soil, improves soil health and moisture retention, reduces the need for fertilizers, and can generate energy. Applying biochar globally could offset a significant portion of fossil fuel emissions and improve food security.

Rangeland management. Rangelands, often marginal lands, are vulnerable to degradation and carbon loss. Practices like holistic management, which mimics natural grazing patterns, can significantly increase soil carbon sequestration, prevent desertification, and dramatically increase livestock productivity. This approach offers a way to use rangelands sustainably while combating climate change.

Livestock emissions. Livestock, particularly ruminants, produce potent greenhouse gases like methane and nitrous oxide (N2O). While conventional meat production is highly polluting, sustainable practices like holistic management and using nitrification inhibitors in dairying can reduce these emissions and sequester carbon. A "sustainabilitarian" diet focuses on how food is produced, not just what is eaten, suggesting sustainably raised meat can be part of the solution.

8. Economic crises and political shifts present opportunities for climate action.

His presidency therefore marks a dramatic shift in American policy, and nowhere are the scale and importance of the change more evident than in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

Crisis fosters change. The global economic crisis, while challenging, may inadvertently help address the climate crisis. It has increased public and business acceptance of government regulation and spending as necessary tools. This bodes well for international climate negotiations.

New global forums. The economic crisis has elevated the G20 as a forum for discussing global issues, replacing the less representative G8. The G20 represents a much larger portion of the world's GDP and population, offering a better chance of brokering a global deal on emissions. Increased international collaboration is a positive sign.

US leadership shift. The Obama administration marked a significant shift in US policy, explicitly linking economic recovery with clean energy initiatives through massive investment. While other nations' stimulus packages were less focused, the scale of US investment has global significance and sets a precedent for prioritizing clean energy. Pricing carbon through trading schemes is also gaining traction.

9. Geoengineering may become a desperate last resort if other efforts fail.

Rather than waiting for an eruption to cool Earth, Crutzen argues that we could use the world's jet fleet to administer a measured dose of sulfur to the stratosphere to cause global dimming.

Potential last resort. If efforts to reduce emissions and sequester carbon fail and catastrophic warming becomes imminent, desperate measures might be considered. One such measure is geoengineering, specifically injecting sulfur into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight and cool the planet, mimicking the effect of large volcanic eruptions. This could provide a rapid, albeit temporary, fix.

Significant risks involved. This strategy carries substantial risks, including potential damage to the ozone layer and visible alteration of the sky (affecting sunrises, sunsets, and color). It would mean living in a visibly duller world. The long-term consequences and unintended side effects are not fully understood.

Discussion needed now. Despite the risks, the possibility of needing such a measure requires open discussion and assessment now. Research into geoengineering is underway, but it needs to be on the political and social radar. If faced with the choice between survival and preserving natural beauty, humanity might choose intervention.

10. Overcoming the crisis requires a fundamental shift in human values and purpose.

What kind of society is likely to value the lives of those yet to be born to such an extent that it will sacrifice a little present wealth in order to assist them?

Beyond economics and science. Sustainability is not just a scientific or economic problem; it is deeply philosophical and moral. It requires valuing future generations enough to make sacrifices today. This contrasts with recent societal models emphasizing individual enrichment and "survival of the fittest."

Rejecting harmful ideologies. Ideologies like social Darwinism, which view the world as a hostile place requiring dominance, are detrimental to achieving sustainability. A sense of hopelessness or resignation to destruction is equally dangerous, preventing the necessary effort. We must reject these bankrupt philosophies.

Responsibility of developed nations. Citizens of developed countries bear a special responsibility due to their disproportionate contribution to historical emissions. They have benefited most from the industrial revolution that caused the carbon imbalance. The burden of ensuring that our activities do not destroy the planet's balance falls heavily upon them.

11. The challenge is immense, but failure means unprecedented catastrophe.

Succeeding at it in the long run will be the greatest challenge our species has ever faced.

Defining challenge of the century. Each century has defining challenges; the 21st century's is bringing sustainability to a species that has never known it. This task is more difficult than past struggles against social injustices or the threat of total war. It requires learning and adapting very quickly, essentially "on the job."

Consequences of failure. Failure to achieve sustainability risks catastrophic consequences, including widespread starvation, extreme weather, sea-level rise flooding coastal areas, and the disappearance of vital water sources. The worst outcome is the collapse of global civilization and a new dark age marked by conflict, potentially involving nuclear weapons.

Influence remains. Even if some catastrophic consequences are inevitable, their scale and speed are still within our power to influence. The potential for the greatest catastrophe lies entirely with us and our ability to avoid fighting among ourselves. Our actions now will determine whether Gaia achieves intelligent control or if the blind process of evolution continues without us.

Last updated: June 18, 2025