Original Sin

1. Biden's "Get Up" Mythology Fueled Reelection Despite Doubts

"Get up!" Biden wrote, "has echoed throughout my life."

Defying the odds. Joe Biden's life story is built on overcoming adversity, from a stutter to personal tragedies and political setbacks. This ingrained belief in his ability to "get up" after being knocked down became a core part of his self-image and a driving force behind his decision to seek reelection at an advanced age. His father's mantra, "It’s not how many times you get knocked down…It’s how quickly you get up," shaped his political resilience.

Past triumphs. Biden viewed his 2020 victory over Donald Trump, despite being seen as too old by many, as vindication of his ability to defy expectations. He saw himself as a figure of historic accomplishment, akin to FDR or LBJ, who had revived the economy and achieved significant legislative wins. This sense of destiny and past success reinforced his conviction that he, and only he, could defeat Trump again.

Faith over skepticism. To Biden and his closest allies, this personal mythology became almost a "theology," where questioning his ability to run again was forbidden. Skepticism was seen as a lack of faith, creating a circle of groupthink that dismissed concerns about his age and capabilities. This belief system made it difficult for anyone, including Biden himself, to honestly assess his fitness for another term.

2. An Insular Inner Circle Shielded Biden and Controlled Access

“Five people were running the country, and Joe Biden was at best a senior member of the board,” said one person familiar with the internal dynamic.

The Politburo's power. Biden's White House was characterized by an unusually small and insular inner circle, often referred to as "the Politburo." Composed of longtime loyalists like Mike Donilon, Steve Ricchetti, and Bruce Reed, this group held significant power, controlling access to the president and steering policy decisions, sometimes without consulting relevant cabinet secretaries. Their loyalty was primarily to the Biden family, not necessarily the presidency or the country.

Protecting the president. This tight-knit group, along with key family aides like Anthony Bernal and Annie Tomasini, prioritized protecting Biden and the "Biden theology." They managed his schedule, limited his public appearances, and controlled who met with him, often shielding him from dissenting opinions or bad news, including concerning poll numbers. This protective instinct, while rooted in loyalty, contributed to isolating the president and limiting honest feedback.

Loyalty police. Anthony Bernal, in particular, became known as the leader of the "loyalty police," wielding influence by questioning the allegiance of other staff members. His close relationship with the First Lady amplified his power, making him a gatekeeper whose approval was often necessary for events or initiatives to move forward. This culture of prioritizing loyalty over candor further solidified the insularity of the White House.

3. Personal Tragedies and Family Dynamics Impacted Biden's Presidency

“Beau’s death aged him significantly,” said a longtime Biden confidant.

Grief's toll. The death of his son Beau in 2015 profoundly impacted Joe Biden, with some close to him observing a noticeable decline in his mental capacity afterward. Beau was seen as the heir apparent, and his loss left a deep void. This tragedy, combined with his other son Hunter's struggles with addiction, created immense personal stress that weighed heavily on the president.

Hunter's struggles. Hunter Biden's ongoing battles with addiction and legal issues were a constant source of worry and distraction for the president. Aides witnessed Hunter yelling at his father on the phone, and the president seemed deeply affected by his son's troubles. Hunter's memoir and subsequent legal troubles, including a federal trial, brought family drama into the public eye, adding to the president's burden and contributing to his visible stress.

Family loyalty. The Bidens are intensely private and fiercely loyal to one another, often presenting a united front against perceived external threats. This loyalty extended to rallying around Hunter, sometimes at the expense of transparency or acknowledging difficult truths. The family's desire to protect Hunter and the president from scandal influenced decisions, including the initial denial of Hunter's daughter Navy and the handling of his legal issues.

4. Attempts to Hide Decline Began Early and Intensified

“The Bidens’ greatest strength is living in their own reality,” this person told us.

Ignoring ugly facts. A family motto, "Never call a fat person fat," symbolized the Bidens' tendency to ignore unpleasant realities. This extended to the president's health, with an almost "spiritual refusal" to admit his decline. Aides noted that this denial was strongest within the innermost circle, while those with less frequent contact became increasingly alarmed.

Early signs. Concerns about Biden's acuity were present even during the 2020 campaign, with aides whispering about moments when he wasn't "100 percent." His debate performances caused anxiety, and his team often avoided tough interviews. The COVID-19 pandemic inadvertently helped by limiting the need for grueling travel and public appearances, allowing Biden to campaign remotely and rest more.

Escalating measures. As the presidency progressed, efforts to manage Biden's public image intensified. This included:

• Limiting public events, especially in the mornings, evenings, and weekends.
• Relying heavily on teleprompters and note cards, even in private meetings.
• Using multiple cameras and heavy editing for video remarks to mask stumbles.
• Shortening speeches and simplifying vocabulary.

These accommodations, initially seen as helpful, evolved into a pattern of obscuring the president's diminishing capabilities from the public and even from many within his own administration.

5. The Hur Report Exposed Memory Lapses and Sparked White House Fury

Summing up their impressions, Hur concluded: “Biden’s memory was worse.”

Classified documents investigation. Special Counsel Robert Hur was appointed to investigate President Biden's handling of classified documents after his vice presidency. While Hur ultimately declined to bring criminal charges, his report detailed evidence that Biden had "willfully retained and disclosed classified materials." The key to his decision lay in his assessment of Biden's memory and cognitive state.

Damning assessment. Hur's report painted a portrait of Biden as a "sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory." Based on interviews with Biden, Hur noted significant limitations in his recall, including forgetting key dates like when he stopped being vice president or when his son Beau died. This assessment, while exculpatory for criminal charges, was politically devastating.

White House backlash. The White House reacted with fury to Hur's description of Biden's memory, viewing it as "gratuitous, inaccurate, and inappropriate." They pressured the Justice Department to remove these passages before the report's release, and when unsuccessful, launched an aggressive campaign to discredit Hur and Attorney General Merrick Garland. This public war against the DOJ over the memory issue backfired, drawing more attention to the very concerns they sought to suppress.

6. Accommodations Were Made to Mask Deteriorating Abilities

“The White House is basically hiding Biden as he auditions for another term,” Alex wrote.

Managing the schedule. As concerns about Biden's age and stamina grew, his schedule was increasingly managed to minimize demanding appearances. Public events were often limited to weekdays between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m., and travel itineraries were adjusted to allow for more rest. This deliberate structuring aimed to present the president at his best, but also highlighted the limitations.

Reliance on aids. Teleprompters and note cards became essential tools, used even in small meetings or for seemingly simple remarks. Staffers developed "news cards" with prepared responses and wrote out names of world leaders phonetically. These aids, while common to some extent, were used to an unusual degree, suggesting a need to compensate for declining recall and communication skills.

Physical adjustments. Even physical movements were managed. After a bike fall and a stumble on stairs, aides sought shorter walking paths, insisted on handrails, and encouraged Biden to wear tennis shoes and use the shorter stairs on Air Force One. These visible adjustments, while practical, further underscored the president's physical frailty.

7. The Debate Laid Bare Biden's Decline to the World

Dana wrote something down on a piece of paper and passed it to Jake: “He just lost the election.”

A pivotal moment. The June 27, 2024, debate against Donald Trump became an unexpected and devastating turning point. For millions of Americans who hadn't closely followed Biden's day-to-day appearances, his performance revealed a level of cognitive and physical decline that was shocking and undeniable. His raspy voice, halting delivery, moments of confusion, and blank stares were broadcast globally.

Worst fears confirmed. Even within the Biden campaign and White House, the performance was met with dismay and panic. Aides who had downplayed concerns or graded on a curve were confronted with the stark reality. The debate did more to solidify public doubts about Biden's fitness than months of campaigning or negative reporting.

Political fallout. The immediate reaction from Democrats, pundits, and even some loyalists ranged from shock to despair. The debate was widely seen as a catastrophic failure that confirmed voters' worst fears about Biden's age and ability to serve another term. It triggered an unprecedented wave of public and private calls for him to withdraw from the race.

8. Post-Debate Panic Led to Intense Pressure to Withdraw

“We’re in Fuck City.”

Widespread alarm. The debate performance triggered a wave of panic across the Democratic Party. Donors threatened to withhold funds, lawmakers privately expressed horror, and prominent figures publicly called for Biden to step aside. The sentiment was that the debate had made the situation untenable and that staying in the race risked a devastating political wipeout.

Calls for withdrawal. Figures like Ari Emanuel, Bill Daley, and numerous members of Congress, including Dean Phillips, Adam Smith, Seth Moulton, and Mikie Sherrill, publicly urged Biden to withdraw. Editorial boards of major newspapers echoed these calls. This pressure was unprecedented for a sitting president who had already secured his party's nomination.

Internal turmoil. Within the White House and campaign, the debate created deep disillusionment and anger among staff who felt they had been misled about the president's condition. While some senior aides remained defiant, many others were privately acknowledging the severity of the situation and the need for a change at the top of the ticket.

9. Loyalty and Denial Hindered Honest Assessment

“They’ve been gaslighting us.”

Ignoring the obvious. Despite increasing evidence of Biden's decline, many within his inner circle and the broader Democratic establishment remained in denial. They dismissed concerns as partisan attacks or media bias, insisting that the president was as sharp as ever behind closed doors. This refusal to acknowledge reality was seen by some as "gaslighting" the public and even their own staff.

Fear of disloyalty. A culture of intense loyalty within the Biden orbit made it difficult for aides or allies to voice concerns without risking being labeled as disloyal or ostracized. This created a chilling effect that prevented honest conversations about the president's capabilities and the viability of his candidacy.

Rationalizing the situation. Many Democrats rationalized their silence by arguing that beating Donald Trump was the paramount goal, and that Biden, despite his flaws, was still the best or only candidate who could achieve it. This belief, while understandable given the perceived threat of Trump, led them to overlook or minimize the risks associated with nominating an aging president whose abilities were visibly diminishing.

10. Biden's Decision to Run Was the "Original Sin" of 2024

The original sin of Election 2024 was Biden’s decision to run for reelection—followed by aggressive efforts to hide his cognitive diminishment.

Breaking a promise. Biden had previously indicated he saw himself as a "bridge" to the next generation and that it was "virtually inconceivable" he would run for reelection in 2024. His decision to run, supported by his family and closest aides, was seen by many as a betrayal of this earlier stance and the root cause of the subsequent political crisis.

Ignoring the risks. Despite being the oldest president in history and showing visible signs of aging, Biden and his team pressed forward with the reelection bid. They dismissed concerns about his ability to serve a second term, potentially until age 86, and the impact his age would have on the campaign. This decision was made without a formal process or open discussion of the risks involved.

Consequences for the party. By insisting on running and securing the nomination, Biden prevented a competitive primary that could have produced a stronger, younger candidate with more time to introduce themselves to the country. His decision to stay in the race until late July, after the debate disaster, left his successor with a severely compressed timeline and a damaged political landscape.

11. The Party Apparatus Prioritized Biden's Candidacy Over Open Process

It was machine-style politics to ensure that Biden would be the nominee.

Shutting down competition. The Democratic Party establishment, including the DNC and many prominent leaders, actively worked to clear the field for Biden and prevent a competitive primary. This included unilaterally changing the primary calendar to favor South Carolina, where Biden had strong support, and refusing to sanction debates with challengers like Dean Phillips.

Fear of division. The primary motivation for avoiding a primary was the fear that it would weaken Biden and the party, making it harder to defeat Trump. However, this strategy backfired, as it prevented potential candidates from building name recognition and proving their mettle, ultimately leaving the party unprepared when Biden's candidacy collapsed.

Ignoring voter concerns. Despite clear polling data showing significant voter concerns about Biden's age and fitness, the party apparatus prioritized his nomination over addressing these issues or allowing voters to choose an alternative. This top-down approach alienated some voters and contributed to the sense that the party was out of touch.

12. Harris Inherited a Deeply Challenged Campaign

She had been handed a terrible situation.

Compressed timeline. Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive nominee in late July, leaving her with only 107 days to campaign against a well-established opponent. This severely limited the time she had to introduce herself to voters, flesh out policy positions, and build her own campaign infrastructure.

Biden's liability. Harris inherited a campaign burdened by Biden's unpopularity and the lingering fallout from the debate. She struggled to distance herself from the administration without appearing disloyal, and her attempts to vouch for Biden's fitness after the Hur report and the debate were seen by some as hypocritical. Biden's continued gaffes and unhelpful public appearances after his withdrawal further complicated her efforts.

Strategic constraints. Harris faced significant strategic constraints in trying to define her candidacy. She was hesitant to highlight policy disagreements with Biden for fear of appearing disloyal, and her attempts to present herself as "more of the same" alienated voters seeking change. The campaign struggled to find a message that could appeal to swing voters without alienating the Democratic base, leaving her with a difficult path to victory.

Last updated: June 1, 2025