Predictable Success

1. Organizational growth follows a predictable cycle of seven stages

Predictable Success is a state reachable by any group of people—any organization, business, division, department, project, or team—in which they will consistently (and with relative ease) achieve their common goals.

The growth cycle explained. Organizations progress through seven distinct stages: Early Struggle, Fun, Whitewater, Predictable Success, Treadmill, The Big Rut, and Death Rattle. Each stage presents unique challenges and opportunities. Understanding this cycle allows leaders to anticipate and navigate transitions more effectively.

Key characteristics of each stage:

• Early Struggle: Cash-strapped, seeking market viability
• Fun: Rapid growth, sales-focused
• Whitewater: Complexity challenges, systems needed
• Predictable Success: Balanced systems and entrepreneurship
• Treadmill: Over-reliance on processes, loss of vision
• The Big Rut: Complacency, focus on internal matters
• Death Rattle: Final decline without intervention

2. Early Struggle is about finding a viable market before cash runs out

Early Struggle is essentially a race against time to swap dependence on externally generated cash (capital funding) with cash generated from profitable trading.

Survival is the priority. In Early Struggle, the organization's primary goal is to establish a viable market before initial funding is exhausted. This stage is characterized by a constant search for customers and a race against dwindling resources.

Key strategies for Early Struggle:

• Maximize access to external funding
• Focus intensely on finding a viable market
• Minimize the path to profitability
• Be prepared to adapt quickly based on market feedback
• Avoid becoming an "Early Struggle Obsessive" who never moves forward

3. Fun stage is characterized by rapid growth and sales focus

Fun is the stage in a businesse's development when a highly effective owner/manager can generate higher-than-average profitability and produce strongly positive cash flow.

Growth takes center stage. During the Fun stage, organizations experience rapid expansion, driven by a relentless focus on sales. The business structure is simple, decision-making is quick, and the emphasis is on seizing market opportunities.

Hallmarks of the Fun stage:

• Sales-centric organization structure ("Sun and Moons")
• Rise of "Big Dogs" - high-performing salespeople
• Creation of company myths and legends
• High energy and excitement among employees
• Risk of overconfidence and unchecked expansion

4. Whitewater occurs when complexity challenges the organization

Whitewater occurs as a natural outgrowth from Fun—in other words, an organization doesn't have to do anything specific to get into Whitewater—once it reaches the Fun stage, so long as the organization continues to grow, it will hit Whitewater automatically.

Complexity creates chaos. As the organization grows, the simple structures and processes that worked in Fun become inadequate. Decision-making slows, errors increase, and the once-agile company struggles to maintain its momentum.

Challenges in Whitewater:

• Increased complexity in operations and decision-making
• Need for more formal systems and processes
• Conflict between sales and operations ("Heart and Kidney" structure)
• Loss of the Fun stage's entrepreneurial spirit
• Risk of cycling between Fun and Whitewater without progress

5. Predictable Success balances entrepreneurial spirit with systems

Predictable Success is that stage in development where the organization is most at ease with itself, is most assured of its identity and purpose, and executes its business with the self-confidence and fluidity of an athlete at the top of his or her game.

Achieving optimal performance. In Predictable Success, organizations strike a balance between the entrepreneurial zeal of Fun and the necessary systems introduced in Whitewater. This balance allows for consistent goal achievement and sustainable growth.

Key characteristics of Predictable Success:

• Ease of decision-making and implementation
• Alignment between structure, process, and people
• Effective cross-functional interaction
• Focus on both growth and profitability
• Development of an intuitive understanding of success

6. Treadmill stage risks overreliance on processes and loss of vision

Treadmill is the fifth stage in any organization's development, coming after Early Struggle, Fun, Whitewater and Predictable Success.

Process overshadows purpose. In Treadmill, the organization becomes overly dependent on systems and processes, leading to a loss of creativity, risk-taking, and entrepreneurial spirit. The focus shifts from growth and innovation to maintaining the status quo.

Signs of Treadmill:

• Excessive focus on compliance and following procedures
• Loss of innovation and "step growth"
• Suppression of bad news and criticism
• Departure of visionary leaders and creative thinkers
• Increasing bureaucracy and slower decision-making

7. The Big Rut and Death Rattle represent decline without intervention

The Big Rut is the sixth and penultimate stage in any organization's development, coming after Early Struggle, Fun, Whitewater, Predictable Success and Treadmill.

Complacency leads to decline. In The Big Rut, the organization loses its ability to self-diagnose problems and becomes focused entirely on internal matters. Without significant intervention, this leads to Death Rattle, the final stage of organizational decline.

Characteristics of The Big Rut and Death Rattle:

• Loss of customer focus and market relevance
• Extreme complacency among leadership
• Inability to adapt to changing market conditions
• Depletion of resources and market share
• Final attempts at resuscitation through fire sales or bankruptcy

8. Transitioning to Predictable Success requires strategic changes

To get out of Whitewater and into Predictable Success, the key systems and processes that management must implement are those that will provide a new structure for making and implementing decisions—a decision-making structure that is capable of mastering the new complexities of the organization.

Restructuring for success. Moving from Whitewater to Predictable Success involves implementing specific changes in how the organization operates, particularly in decision-making processes and organizational structure.

Key steps for transitioning to Predictable Success:

• Redesign the organization chart to reflect operational reality
• Implement lateral management roles alongside vertical ones
• Foster alignment throughout the organization
• Encourage cross-functional teamwork
• Empower employees with increased authority and responsibility
• Cultivate a culture of ownership and self-accountability

9. Maintaining Predictable Success demands constant vigilance

Predictable Success isn't a textbook—it's a sensible and strategic playbook for any leader seeking to take their organization to the next level, and provides the conceptual framework to ensure a successful outcome.

Balance is key. Staying in Predictable Success requires ongoing effort to maintain the delicate balance between entrepreneurial spirit and necessary systems. Leaders must remain vigilant to avoid sliding back into Whitewater or forward into Treadmill.

Strategies for maintaining Predictable Success:

• Regularly reassess and adjust systems and processes
• Encourage and reward innovation and calculated risk-taking
• Maintain a strong focus on both growth and profitability
• Foster open communication and cross-functional collaboration
• Continuously develop leadership skills at all levels
• Stay attuned to market changes and customer needs

10. Recovery from Treadmill involves refocusing on people, not just processes

It is by using systems and processes to change how your people use systems and process that you will halt and reverse the slide into Treadmill, and make it back to Predictable Success.

People drive change. To recover from Treadmill and return to Predictable Success, organizations must shift their focus from rigid adherence to processes back to empowering and developing their people.

Key areas for refocusing on people:

• Revamp hiring processes to prioritize curiosity alongside compliance
• Implement dynamic deployment strategies like job rotation and sabbaticals
• Redesign performance assessments to be success-focused and developmental
• Transform training programs to be Socratic and involve senior leadership
• Encourage questioning of existing systems and processes
• Foster a culture of continuous learning and improvement

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Last updated: January 22, 2025