Prisoners of Geography

1. Geography shapes nations' destinies and global politics

The land on which we live has always shaped us. It has shaped the wars, the power, politics and social development of the peoples that now inhabit nearly every part of the earth.

Physical realities influence international affairs. Geography plays a crucial role in shaping a nation's foreign policy, military strategy, and economic development. Natural barriers like mountains, rivers, and deserts have historically protected some countries while leaving others vulnerable to invasion. Access to resources, trade routes, and strategic locations continue to drive geopolitical competition.

Key geographic factors:

• Terrain (mountains, plains, deserts)
• Climate and natural resources
• Access to seas and navigable rivers
• Strategic chokepoints (straits, canals)

The impact of geography persists even as technology advances. While modern transportation and communication have reduced some geographic constraints, the fundamental realities of distance, terrain, and resource distribution still shape global affairs. Understanding these geographic underpinnings is crucial for analyzing international relations and predicting future conflicts.

2. Russia's expansionist strategy driven by lack of natural barriers

Strip out the lines of nation states, and the map Ivan the Terrible confronted is the same one Vladimir Putin is faced with to this day.

Russia seeks buffer zones for security. Russia's vast territory lacks significant natural defensive barriers, especially on its western borders. This geography has shaped a long-standing Russian strategy of expanding outward to create buffer zones against potential invaders. From the time of the tsars through the Soviet era and into Putin's regime, Russian leaders have sought to push their sphere of influence as far west as possible.

Key aspects of Russia's geographic challenge:

• North European Plain provides invasion route from the west
• Lack of navigable rivers connecting its territory
• Limited warm-water ports for maritime trade and naval projection

This expansionist tendency puts Russia in conflict with its neighbors, especially in Eastern Europe. Countries like Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic states serve as the battleground between Russian and Western influence. Understanding this geographic imperative helps explain Russia's aggressive actions in its "near abroad" and its opposition to NATO expansion.

3. China's rise challenges established global power dynamics

If it can avoid a serious conflict with Japan or the USA, then the only real danger to China is itself.

China seeks to secure trade routes and resources. As China's economic and military power grows, it is increasingly assertive in pursuing its strategic interests, particularly in securing vital maritime trade routes and access to resources. This brings China into competition with established powers, especially the United States, in regions like the South China Sea and Indian Ocean.

Key areas of Chinese focus:

• South China Sea territorial claims
• Belt and Road Initiative to develop trade corridors
• Naval modernization to project power globally

China's geographic challenges include a lack of direct access to the open ocean and potential encirclement by U.S. allies. Its aggressive actions in the South China Sea and efforts to develop overland trade routes are attempts to overcome these constraints. As China's power grows, managing the shifting balance of power in Asia will be a key challenge for global stability.

4. America's geography underpins its superpower status

If you won the lottery, and were looking to buy a country to live in, the first one the estate agent would show you would be the United States of America.

Natural advantages fuel American power. The United States enjoys an unparalleled combination of geographic advantages that have facilitated its rise to superpower status. These include abundant natural resources, navigable rivers, fertile agricultural land, and natural protection from invasion. This geography has allowed the U.S. to develop a powerful economy and project military power globally.

Key geographic advantages of the U.S.:

• Two ocean borders providing security and trade access
• Extensive navigable river system (Mississippi basin)
• Diverse climate zones supporting varied agriculture
• Abundant energy and mineral resources

While technology has reduced the importance of some geographic factors, the United States' favorable location continues to provide significant strategic advantages. Understanding these geographic underpinnings helps explain America's enduring global influence and the challenges faced by potential rivals seeking to match its power.

5. Europe's divisions rooted in diverse landscapes and history

Europe's major rivers do not meet (unless you count the Sava, which drains into the Danube in Belgrade). This partly explains why there are so many countries in what is a relatively small space.

Geographic diversity shapes national identities. Europe's complex geography, with its many mountain ranges, rivers, and distinct regions, has fostered the development of diverse cultures and nation-states. This geographic fragmentation has historically made unifying Europe difficult and continues to influence political and economic integration efforts like the European Union.

Key geographic features shaping Europe:

• Alps and other mountain ranges dividing regions
• Major rivers (Rhine, Danube) as historic borders and trade routes
• North European Plain as invasion route and economic corridor
• Mediterranean coastline fostering distinct southern cultures

The ongoing challenges of European integration, from economic disparities to debates over sovereignty, can often be traced back to these geographic and historical divisions. Understanding this context is crucial for analyzing Europe's political dynamics and future prospects for unity.

6. Middle East conflicts stem from artificial colonial borders

The Europeans used ink to draw lines on maps: they were lines that did not exist in reality and created some of the most artificial borders the world has seen. An attempt is now being made to redraw them in blood.

Colonial borders ignore ethnic and religious realities. Many of the Middle East's ongoing conflicts can be traced to the artificial borders drawn by European powers after World War I. These borders often ignored ethnic, religious, and tribal realities on the ground, forcing diverse groups into artificial nation-states. The result has been decades of instability and conflict as these groups struggle for power and autonomy.

Key factors in Middle East instability:

• Sykes-Picot Agreement dividing Ottoman territories
• Kurdish population spread across multiple countries
• Sunni-Shia sectarian divisions
• Competing claims to Jerusalem and holy sites

The ongoing civil wars in Syria and Iraq, as well as the rise of non-state actors like ISIS, can be seen as attempts to redraw these artificial borders. Understanding this historical context is crucial for analyzing current conflicts and assessing prospects for long-term stability in the region.

7. Africa's development hindered by challenging geography

Africa is where humans originated, we are all African. However, the rules of the race changed c. 8000 BCE when some of us, who'd wandered off to places such as the Middle East and around the Mediterranean region, lost the wanderlust, settled down, began farming and eventually congregated in villages and towns.

Geographic barriers limit economic integration. Africa's challenging geography, including vast deserts, dense jungles, and a lack of navigable rivers connecting the interior to the coasts, has historically hindered economic development and political integration. These geographic realities continue to pose challenges for infrastructure development, trade, and governance across the continent.

Key geographic challenges in Africa:

• Sahara Desert dividing north from sub-Saharan regions
• Lack of natural harbors along much of the coastline
• Tropical diseases in equatorial regions
• Limited navigable rivers for interior transportation

While Africa has vast natural resources, accessing and developing these resources remains difficult due to geographic constraints. Understanding these challenges is crucial for assessing development strategies and the continent's economic potential. Despite these obstacles, improved technology and infrastructure are gradually helping to overcome some of Africa's geographic limitations.

8. Latin America's potential limited by geographical constraints

Latin America, particularly its south, is proof that you can bring the Old World's knowledge and technology to the new, but if geography is against you, then you will have limited success, especially if you get the politics wrong.

Natural barriers hinder integration and development. Latin America's challenging geography, including the Andes Mountains, Amazon rainforest, and vast distances between population centers, has historically limited economic integration and development. These geographic realities continue to pose challenges for infrastructure, trade, and political cooperation across the region.

Key geographic challenges in Latin America:

• Andes Mountains dividing east from west
• Amazon rainforest limiting interior development
• Lack of navigable rivers connecting regions
• Long distances between major population centers

While Latin America has significant natural resources and agricultural potential, geographic barriers have made it difficult to fully capitalize on these advantages. Understanding these constraints is crucial for assessing the region's economic prospects and the challenges of regional integration efforts.

9. Arctic melting opens new frontier for resource competition

As the ice melts and the tundra is exposed, two things are likely to happen to accelerate the process of the greying of the ice cap.

Climate change creates new geopolitical hotspot. The melting of Arctic ice due to climate change is opening up new shipping routes and access to previously inaccessible natural resources. This is creating a new arena for geopolitical competition among Arctic nations and other global powers seeking to exploit these opportunities.

Key developments in the Arctic:

• New shipping routes (Northwest Passage, Northern Sea Route)
• Access to oil and gas reserves
• Competing territorial claims
• Increased military presence by Arctic nations

The Arctic's transformation presents both opportunities and risks. While new resources and trade routes could bring economic benefits, competition for these assets could lead to increased tensions. Understanding the complex interplay of geography, climate change, and geopolitics in the Arctic is crucial for anticipating future global challenges and conflicts.

Last updated: January 22, 2025